It's over. Historical bull run has come to an end.

[Noone123]

I've come to the conclusion (unless I learn something new) that trying to predict the markets is like trying to predict the behaviors of a wild animal in a cage. You simply cannot know what will happen. Despite years and years of studying, you are still left with lots of uncertainty.

Too much uncertainty to risk real money on.

I may even stop paper trading because I'm not learning anything from it other than to see that it's random.

Markets definitely are not random. Statistically, markets trend around 50% and revert 50% of the time. How do you think it's the case? Someone made it random.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Actually, according to this, individuals are the largest owners of the market. 34%.

And 23% mutual funds, which the shares are also owned by individuals. 15% foreign investors, which may be individuals as well.

Perhaps this is why the markets are so irrational at times. Because people are irrational. They can panic easily. They may know very little about economics. They can get overly confident, etc.

 

[ironchef]

Yeah, I am pretty sure the first protozoans did not concern themselves with PE ratios either. However, some financial concepts (interest rates, bonds, shares, buy low sell high) have been around since the middle ages.

I don't know how much free time do you have, but this is a fun book about credit risk and politics way back when:
Lending to the Borrower from Hell: Debt, Taxes, and Default in the Age of Philip II

If it didn't say Phillip II, you would think this is the US-G Budget Deficit Chart:

US-G is one step ahead of Phillip, modern governments learned how to print money and so instead of default, we print our way out of trouble.

 

[ironchef]

I've come to the conclusion (unless I learn something new) that trying to predict the markets is like trying to predict the behaviors of a wild animal in a cage. You simply cannot know what will happen. Despite years and years of studying, you are still left with lots of uncertainty.

Too much uncertainty to risk real money on.

I may even stop paper trading because I'm not learning anything from it other than to see that it's random.

Don't be too discourage. We retails can make money out of randomness.

You just have to find some of the rules that govern that randomness, like playing blackjack, the cards played are randomly distributed but you can still win.

Good luck.

 

[orbit23]

Don't be too discourage. We retails can make money out of randomness.

You just have to find some of the rules that govern that randomness, like playing blackjack, the cards played are randomly distributed but you can still win.

Good luck.

Statistically proven that it is near impossible. And for those that it is, it takes years and thousands of hours. It's a skill.

You stupid baboons. Where are all the inverted yield charts and amount of US outstanding debt? Twitter was full of such shit just prior to the 3000SPX break. I think i am the one stupid though, trying to argue about it though. It seems pretty much set in stone that we are going into a bear market and recession. Just because all of you are saying we aren't. Keep buying bulls.

I said we'd get 2500 and 2200 SPX this year. I am updating the prediction now, might go as low as 1500 in the next 1-2years.

 

[ironchef]

Statistically proven that it is near impossible. And for those that it is, it takes years and thousands of hours. It's a skill.

You stupid baboons. Where are all the inverted yield charts and amount of US outstanding debt? Twitter was full of such shit just prior to the 3000SPX break. I think i am the one stupid though, trying to argue about it though. It seems pretty much set in stone that we are going into a bear market and recession. Just because all of you are saying we aren't. Keep buying bulls.

I said we'd get 2500 and 2200 SPX this year. I am updating the prediction now, might go as low as 1500 in the next 1-2years.

Yes, I am stupid but... if it is truly random, your correct call is only randomly correct?

 

[orbit23]

Yes, I am stupid but... if it is truly random, your correct call is only randomly correct?

Only the first statement was referred to your post, the second part was meant for everyone else... But how else could we top, if not everyone was bullish hehe. Only a few months ago prior to the breakout, recession headlines everywhere, and now... I am not seeing them. It's coming.

 

[ironchef]

Only the first statement was referred to your post, the second part was meant for everyone else... But how else could we top, if not everyone was bullish hehe. Only a few months ago prior to the breakout, recession headlines everywhere, and now... I am not seeing them. It's coming.

It is OK, I am actually not that smart and am math challenged.

If you saw it coming, means it is not random and you are able to predict, so, like blackjack there are rules you can follow?

 

[vincentnyc]

it's not over yet until the plunged protection team said so.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Amazing jobs report today. Markets ignored it.

I guess the corona panic is a larger force.