It's over. Historical bull run has come to an end.
- Thread starter orbit23
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Great question, I'm wrong way more often than right %wise, like anyone else. My most profitable weeks like last week's 5k are because I use small stops and position sizing.
#1 lesson learned in 21 years is "the math is a LOT more important than chart patterns". Eg if I take 6 stops costing $600 and 2 scaled- in wins winning $880 I'm profitable being right only 2/8 trades.
Anyone claiming to make >50% winning trades consistently is total BS. Ask any floor trader.
Example I bought 50shares SQQQ earlier hod right before rate cut today and got stopped out on the drop. But I bought back in for pivot and it ran up
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Great question, I'm wrong way more often than right %wise, like anyone else. My most profitable weeks like last week's 5k are because I use small stops and position sizing.
#1 lesson learned in 21 years is "the math is a LOT more important than chart patterns". Eg if I take 6 stops costing $600 and 2 scaled- in wins winning $880 I'm profitable being right only 2/8 trades.
Anyone claiming to make >50% winning trades consistently is total BS. Ask any floor trader.
Example I bought 50shares SQQQ earlier hod right before rate cut today and got stopped out on the drop. But I bought back in for pivot and it ran up
Can you briefly explain your buy or sell signals?
Sure, mostly I use prior day OHLC based entries, since algos/hft does. Main buy signal is long above small gaps over prior day highs.
Main thing is trade a lot of small trades with tight stops, throw a lot of darts. Took me 20 fxcking years to learn that the hard way sigh.
Example I stopped out of 50 shares SQQQ on morning fed cut today, but bought pivot 3x so far on the way up. I'm profitable in it now.
Younger dumber me would've bought 300 shares, got stopped out, cursed the fed and failed to re-enter. Seriously, it's a numbers and math game using implied odds and directional volatility, not magic chart patterns. Plus much more focus on TRIN & VIX
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Well it's debatable about bull run come to an end, who has a crystal ball?
My guess is we go down quite hard then recover as usual.
Could be several months to a year or two.
I can only feel ahead on mkt vibes though a day or two, atm I think that this month is screwed for bulls but in terms of actual trading am more bullish than bearish right up ahead.
You really think this virus will affect markets for a year or two? No way. It's already dying down.
The more important factor that I see is that the Fed is lowering rates and using all their available tools. They won't have anything left for when unemployment rises.
What do you estimate your ROI per year?