...large scale work stoppages like have already happened in China, quarantines, travel restrictions, and the like have a real and potentially significant impact on the world economy
This is exactly why there is a flight to safety. The impact to commodities demand is huge. Then you have to price in margins getting hit hard amid the collapse in consumption.
Just how long can these HEAVILY INDEBTED consumer driven industries survive?
(airline/cruise, hotel, retail, luxury goods)
Global property markets are at serious risk.
The Chinese workers are migrant laborers. Some are not even going back to work! People are fleeing locked down cities! The medical workers are dying! It's out of control. CCP propaganda is not telling the real story.
If this thing spreads in ME, Africa, S. America it will be a disaster. The economic consequences will make the trade war look like a joke.
At this point, there is a real possibility of significant and protracted dislocations.
Here is a list of possible consequences.....
Mass layoffs/downsizing, deglobalization, mass mortgage defaults, earnings collapse, capital flight, border closures, resource scarcity, humanitarian crises.
This is not a joke. The bond market is telling you that 2020 will be flat/negative.
The central banks are pretty much useless after 10 years of ZIRP and massive increases in debt levels.
The central banks are overextended. They made a bet on growth. They are all in on that.
A global pandemic is a black swan.
