It's official the economy has turned......

Quote from Max E. Pad:

Second time in the week since this thread was started that i have seen a firm downgrading all homebuilders......


28 Feb 2012 09:15 [BZH] Compass Point downgrades BZH, HOV, DHI, KBH to Sell from Hold; PHM cut to Neutral from Buy

Housing is "Rolling along" is convertibility would say..... :D
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That's part of the problem of these liquidity driven markets...it's much easier to cherry pick the positive aspects of any econ data and say "see the market is reacting to a positive economic outlook". The truth is every pundit on tv was talking recession last fall. Then the Fed, ECB, BOE open the spiggots and suddenly there's "no recession".

It's shameless how long this stuff has gone on for.
 
Quote from Ricter:

You act like you think every aspect of a complex economy should be improving, for the economy to be improving. Do you think every day in the markets, during a bull trend, should be an up day?
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More spin.
 
Quote from Ricter:

You act like you think every aspect of a complex economy should be improving, for the economy to be improving. Do you think every day in the markets, during a bull trend, should be an up day?
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And you act like you think only one aspect of a complex economy needs to improve in order for the economy as a whole to be improving.

I assure you, I am closer to reality.

And no, of course not every day should be an up day (although the Fed is really, really trying to make it that way).

But a downtrend like the aforementioned ZH report is something else entirely.
 
Quote from Tsing Tao:

Consumer Confidence is following an inflated stock market, that is all. It always does.
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Hence, one of the million reasons why the answer to every economic problem, is to blow another asset bubble. Ultimately, that's about all they've got.

Even with all the subterfuge in getting interest rates/mortgage rates down to record lows, it's had negligible effect on a national basis.

Much, much easier to funnel all that liquidity into new stock market highs. Of course, the damage control of $100+ oil puts a lid on all the giddiness.
 
It looks like Durable Goods orders were down 4%. Although not a leading indicator it is important and shows the economy is having problems getting off the ground.
 
Quote from pspr:

It looks like Durable Goods orders were down 4%. Although not a leading indicator it is important and shows the economy is having problems getting off the ground.
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To be fair, that indicator is so volatile it is almost worthless to use for anything.
 
Quote from Tsing Tao:

Consumer Confidence is following an inflated stock market, that is all. It always does.
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Sure, ok. I still wonder, on a more grand scale, why so many here are seeing so much doom and gloom. Market at new highs, trading profits are much easier to make, and people seem to think things overall are getting better. Self-fulfilling? Not necessarily, but is better to have everyone scared of the economy and not even try?

I understand that the right feels the need to have the economy to be bad to have a chance to be Obama. And, they may even think the trade-off is worth it. But, as traders, we have to see things as they are. Volatility is down due to covered call writing of course. That's the only real negative I see, and people do more covered calls when they think the underlying is strong. Pretty basic stuff, and I really think you guys understand that.

I think you'll find the S&P price to book and p/e ratios are pretty good as well. Sorry, I can't seem to post up the chart, maybe some help?

c
 
Quote from cgroupman:

Sure, ok. I still wonder, on a more grand scale, why so many here are seeing so much doom and gloom. Market at new highs, trading profits are much easier to make, and people seem to think things overall are getting better. Self-fulfilling? Not necessarily, but is better to have everyone scared of the economy and not even try?

I understand that the right feels the need to have the economy to be bad to have a chance to be Obama. And, they may even think the trade-off is worth it. But, as traders, we have to see things as they are. Volatility is down due to covered call writing of course. That's the only real negative I see, and people do more covered calls when they think the underlying is strong. Pretty basic stuff, and I really think you guys understand that.

I think you'll find the S&P price to book and p/e ratios are pretty good as well. Sorry, I can't seem to post up the chart, maybe some help?

c
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Are you learning impaired, sir? This has nothing to do with Right/Left. This has to do with Real/Imagined. With Fixed/Broken. The fact that the market continues to rally is a result of one thing and one thing only: Massive printing and huge, unprecedented liquidity injections - the likes of which no one has ever seen in the history of markets. And you think that's a good thing? This isn't an Obama story. It's a Central Bank story. The only blame/credit that can be given in regards to Obama is that he put the same lunatic back in charge whos policies caused the issue in the first place. I would be equally critical of a republican President if he was so lousy.

Nothing has been repaired. Everything has been papered (literally) over. The rot in the system is still there, and will return with a far greater vengeance than before. Banks are still using phony market-to-unicorn accounting. They are even more TBTF than before, dependent on the next heroin line from the Fed. As for Valuations, I urge you to go read Dr. Hussman's latest take on that and see how wrong you are. If you can't find him via Google, I'll give you a direct link - just ask.

Record unemployment. Record foodstamp usage. Record people on government assistance. Record low housing. You cannot have an economic recovery by inflating asset prices and raising inflation if your population is decemated.

What is wrong with you?
 
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