It's official the economy has turned......

[jem]

correct about oil prices.
Without real structural improvement it is highly likely recoveries created by deficit spending will be stopped in their tracks by oil prices and or the bond market.

A guy who works for me just bought a 240,000 dollar house using his dads 1.9 percent equity line.

His mortgage, for now, will be about 600 dollars a month. How long can money stay that cheap if the economy's recovering.

 

[Eight]

more inventory is coming on the market, the public sector's attempts to shore things up only delayed things.. and we have the rich and the poor in this culture now, so the rich could have a little housing bubble of their own and the poor would never participate in it at all...

 

[Crispy]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

I think he meant for you to show us how you are going with your belief that the housing market has turned by providing what trades you made accordingly. You know, backing up your talk with money/action.

Yes.

Skin in the game makes all the difference in prediction land.

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

I think he meant for you to show us how you are going with your belief that the housing market has turned by providing what trades you made accordingly. You know, backing up your talk with money/action.

This is P&R, my talk will be backed up in November, believe me.

Secondly I am a pure price action trader, housing starts are not an indicator you can trade off of as it is a macro indicator.

But if you traded, you would know that, soooo.......

 

[pspr]

Yeah, you must be right that sounds like a lot. And housing starts do lead the economy by up to a year.

Oh, wait, I just looked at the chart that invalidates your recovery hypothesis. You do see where 699k falls on this chart, don't you?

<img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1YN1vXjPdzc/Tnjl-2jVBuI/AAAAAAAAR5M/1xc-QISbsNo/s640/HousingStarts2.gif" width=500 height= 300>

Quote from RCG Trader:

Just got this in.....

Housing starts: 699K

Expected:670k

Previous: 689k

What this means to those of you who don't follow macro econ stuff is that money is flowing into construction.

Housing stocks are the canary in the macro econ coalmine. The majors are up sharply.

Come Novmember there will be a visible improvement to the masses by then.

Game Over

 

[Ricter]

Quote from Eight:

more inventory is coming on the market, ...

"Perhaps due to falling foreclosure numbers, January was the 19th consecutive month that inventory levels dropped. The number of homes for sale last month was 24.1% lower than the number seen in January 2011."
That's just RE/MAX talking, though.

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from pspr:

Yeah, you must be right that sounds like a lot. And housing starts do lead the economy by up to a year.

Oh, wait, I just looked at the chart that invalidates your recovery hypothesis. You do see where 699k falls on this chart, don't you?

<img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1YN1vXjPdzc/Tnjl-2jVBuI/AAAAAAAAR5M/1xc-QISbsNo/s640/HousingStarts2.gif" width=500 height= 300>

Oh my, can't read a chart can you?

Look harder, see that higher low down there? That's called a bottom.

 

[pspr]

Quote from RCG Trader:

Oh my, can't read a chart can you?

Look harder, see that higher low down there? That's called a bottom.

It's been bottoming for 3 years. There is no sign of a breakout. It's just at the top of the range. Move along, nothing to see here!

 

[Eight]

Quote from RCG Trader:

Oh my, can't read a chart can you?

Look harder, see that higher low down there? That's called a bottom.

and pretty soon it could be a double bottom, oh wait, sometimes it's a triple and I've seen quadruple ones that weren't even bottoms at all...

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Eight:

and pretty soon it could be a double bottom, oh wait, sometimes it's a triple and I've seen quadruple ones that weren't even bottoms at all...

As long as the bottom does not break before November.

It can still be in the range, the GOP is so busy self immolating that Obama does not need a good economy, he just needs to be able to stand pat.