What is it that causes the climate to change? I walk outside and tilt my face toward the sky and feel the warmth on my skin. I wonder, what it is causing my face and the air around me to warm? We now know it's not CO2 but what is it? 
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EDMONTON, AB, May. 12, 2013/ Troy Media/ â It has been widely reported recently that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere from all sources has reached 400 parts per million (ppm).
It has also been suggested that passing this âmilestoneâ signals our failure to deal with climate change. But actually, reaching this milestone does something quite different.
Since there has been no significant warming for 17 years and none predicted by the UK Met Office until after 2017[ii]; since, according to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), there is no connection between extreme weather events and climate change[iii]; and since the population has continued to grow as C02 increases, this milestone really signals that the simplistic theory that man-made greenhouse gas âcausesâ global warming is not as viable a theory as many once thought it was.
The planet has had much higher levels of CO2 before â 20y times higher than the current concentration[iv]. The difference this time is that humans are a dominant species and we have been encouraged to see CO2 as âproblematicâ rather than the life force that it really is. CO2 at 400 ppm will accelerate plant growth, enabling faster absorption of CO2. It is likely that the average CO2 for 2013 will be not much different from that of 2012 â around 393 ppm.
The ice core samples and other evidence all suggest that, as the temperature rises, more CO2 is produced, causing further warming. What we have here is something different. CO2 levels have risen significantly since 1900 but the temperature rise has not been linear. Between 1900 and the present, warming is thought to be around 0.7C. A recent peer-reviewed study suggests that if, as some now predict, CO2 reaches 560 ppm by 2100, total warming over two centuries would be around 1.1 degrees â 0.4C warmer than the present[v]. A doubling of CO2 will not produce a massive shift in climate.
There is also a view among some scientists that the sensitivity of the climate to CO2 is much less than previously thought. Stephen Schwartz of Brookhaven National Lab concludes that the Earthâs climate is only about one-third as sensitive to carbon dioxide as the IPCC assumes, suggesting that the 400 ppm milestone is of very little significance.
Much of the science that sees 400 ppm as problematic is what we refer to as âvirtual scienceâ â science by model and machine. Dr. Jim Renwick, formerly a top UN IPCC scientist, has suggested that climate models do not account for half the variability in nature and thus are not reliable. âHalf of the variability in the climate system is not predictable, so we donât expect to do terrifically wellâ, he has said[vi]. Others point to the last 17 years of no significant warming and point out that none of the 21 climate models predicted this or can explain this.
Now that, using observation and evidence, we can see that high levels of CO2 are not leading to âcatastrophic warmingâ â observations we can connect to related observations in science (e.g. the medieval warm period was warmer than the present, extended from Europe as far as Antarctica when C02 was considerably less than at present[vii]) â it is time to revisit the theory which is informing our understanding of the climate.
John Maynard Keynes, speaking to an opponent during Bretton Woods, said âWhen the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?â â seems like an appropriate quote here. We are at 400 ppm. There is only modest warming in over a century and none for almost 20 years and none forecast for another four. CO2 is rising faster than anticipated. What do you do sir?
http://www.troymedia.com/2013/05/12/global-warming-milestone-proves-man-made-theory-wrong/
See http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/02/...achauri-acknowledges-no-warming-for-17-years/
[ii] See http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...n-climate-debate/story-e6frg6n6-1226583112134
[iii] http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.ca/2012/03/handy-bullshit-button-on-disasters-and.html
[iv] Nasif Nahle. 2007. Cycles of Global Climate Change. Biology Cabinet Journal Online. Article no. 295. http://www.biocab.org/Climate_Geologic_Timescale.html, and http://www.biocab.org/Carbon_Dioxide_Geological_Timescale.html. (But also see Vandenbroucke, T.R.A., Armstrong, H.A., Williams, M., Paris, F., Zalasiewicz, J.A., Sabbe, K., Nolvak, J., Challands, T.J., Verniers, J. & Servais, T. 2010. Polar front shift and atmospheric CO2 during the glacial maximum of the Early Paleozoic Icehouse. PNAS doi/10.1073/pnas.1003220107).
[v] See http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/steve/pubs/HeatCapacity.pdf
[vi] See http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=23&Itemid=32
[vii] See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period
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EDMONTON, AB, May. 12, 2013/ Troy Media/ â It has been widely reported recently that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere from all sources has reached 400 parts per million (ppm).
It has also been suggested that passing this âmilestoneâ signals our failure to deal with climate change. But actually, reaching this milestone does something quite different.
Since there has been no significant warming for 17 years and none predicted by the UK Met Office until after 2017[ii]; since, according to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), there is no connection between extreme weather events and climate change[iii]; and since the population has continued to grow as C02 increases, this milestone really signals that the simplistic theory that man-made greenhouse gas âcausesâ global warming is not as viable a theory as many once thought it was.
The planet has had much higher levels of CO2 before â 20y times higher than the current concentration[iv]. The difference this time is that humans are a dominant species and we have been encouraged to see CO2 as âproblematicâ rather than the life force that it really is. CO2 at 400 ppm will accelerate plant growth, enabling faster absorption of CO2. It is likely that the average CO2 for 2013 will be not much different from that of 2012 â around 393 ppm.
The ice core samples and other evidence all suggest that, as the temperature rises, more CO2 is produced, causing further warming. What we have here is something different. CO2 levels have risen significantly since 1900 but the temperature rise has not been linear. Between 1900 and the present, warming is thought to be around 0.7C. A recent peer-reviewed study suggests that if, as some now predict, CO2 reaches 560 ppm by 2100, total warming over two centuries would be around 1.1 degrees â 0.4C warmer than the present[v]. A doubling of CO2 will not produce a massive shift in climate.
There is also a view among some scientists that the sensitivity of the climate to CO2 is much less than previously thought. Stephen Schwartz of Brookhaven National Lab concludes that the Earthâs climate is only about one-third as sensitive to carbon dioxide as the IPCC assumes, suggesting that the 400 ppm milestone is of very little significance.
Much of the science that sees 400 ppm as problematic is what we refer to as âvirtual scienceâ â science by model and machine. Dr. Jim Renwick, formerly a top UN IPCC scientist, has suggested that climate models do not account for half the variability in nature and thus are not reliable. âHalf of the variability in the climate system is not predictable, so we donât expect to do terrifically wellâ, he has said[vi]. Others point to the last 17 years of no significant warming and point out that none of the 21 climate models predicted this or can explain this.
Now that, using observation and evidence, we can see that high levels of CO2 are not leading to âcatastrophic warmingâ â observations we can connect to related observations in science (e.g. the medieval warm period was warmer than the present, extended from Europe as far as Antarctica when C02 was considerably less than at present[vii]) â it is time to revisit the theory which is informing our understanding of the climate.
John Maynard Keynes, speaking to an opponent during Bretton Woods, said âWhen the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?â â seems like an appropriate quote here. We are at 400 ppm. There is only modest warming in over a century and none for almost 20 years and none forecast for another four. CO2 is rising faster than anticipated. What do you do sir?
http://www.troymedia.com/2013/05/12/global-warming-milestone-proves-man-made-theory-wrong/
See http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/02/...achauri-acknowledges-no-warming-for-17-years/
[ii] See http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...n-climate-debate/story-e6frg6n6-1226583112134
[iii] http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.ca/2012/03/handy-bullshit-button-on-disasters-and.html
[iv] Nasif Nahle. 2007. Cycles of Global Climate Change. Biology Cabinet Journal Online. Article no. 295. http://www.biocab.org/Climate_Geologic_Timescale.html, and http://www.biocab.org/Carbon_Dioxide_Geological_Timescale.html. (But also see Vandenbroucke, T.R.A., Armstrong, H.A., Williams, M., Paris, F., Zalasiewicz, J.A., Sabbe, K., Nolvak, J., Challands, T.J., Verniers, J. & Servais, T. 2010. Polar front shift and atmospheric CO2 during the glacial maximum of the Early Paleozoic Icehouse. PNAS doi/10.1073/pnas.1003220107).
[v] See http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/steve/pubs/HeatCapacity.pdf
[vi] See http://nzclimatescience.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=23&Itemid=32
[vii] See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_Warm_Period
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