Its not 1999, its Sept 2006.

[hels02]

Quote from dtrader98:

Mandelbrot: "Patterns are the fool's gold of financial markets. They are the inevitable consequence of the human need to find patterns in the patternless." [/B]

LOL! I like that quote.

While I agree that TA can be helpful, it is worthless alone. What most TA only people forget is... the 'chart' they are examining is BASED on the real behavior of people who do not all care about charts. Reminds me of predicting the future by examining chicken entrails.

Ok, maybe it's not that bad, because charts DO affect the buy/sell behavior of chartists.

But if charting is 100%, I want to know why all chartists are not already richer than Buffett, who has had his shares of misses and booboos, so therefore is NOT 100%.

I am not discounting TA completely, but it's only a part, and not a very big part, of the whole picture.

 

[Restricted]

Quote from hedgeking:

deep fried your full of crap. go look at the ise track record over the past 4 years ,its got a horrible record. before the drop in may 2006 it was low and also before the feb drop it was low and showed no evidence either time the market was going to drop. its funny as hell when sentiment is 100% bullish its ok but when it gets just a tad bearish katy bar the door we're heading to the moon

I agree I think this means alot less than it used to. It used to be more accurate when options were generally the domain of the small investor but with hedging and more institution involvement I think its becoming useless.

 

[verbotenlaandia]

Quote from michaelscott:


Now let me give you some *facts* to back up my assertions. Im not going to post general statements, but give you facts so that you can come to your own conclusion.

The Wilshire 5000 hit a high of 13473 (rounded up) in May 2006. Then it went down to 12250 in a short period of time.

Now lets do some simple, basic math.

13473-12250= 1223

1223+13473= 14696 (this is the theorhetical warning point)

The point where we corrected in February was 14829.

Now lets backup even further.

Around September of 2005, the Wilshire 5000 was at about 12500. Then it dropped to 11630.

12500-11630= 870

12500+870= 13370

In May 2006, as stated earlier, the correction started at 13473.

Therefore, we should probably be cautious not right now, but in the future. The period of caution will be when the Wilshire 5000 strikes 15840.

14828-13816= 1012

1012+14828= 15840

So go on posting up your general opinions about the economy. All of which I posted is fact and not a sweeping generalization.

You have a trend on the chart that has existed during the last two corrections. Therefore, we should be cautious on the next go round.

As for your post about not listening to people on message boards, its your money. You can throw it away anyway you wish. Im not ignoring the charts and trying to justify my position. Im showing you the facts and your opinion doesnt change what is fact.

The arithmatic you are posting is a fact. However, the conclusion that you are making is not.

 

[DeepFried]

Quote from Restricted:

I agree I think this means alot less than it used to. It used to be more accurate when options were generally the domain of the small investor but with hedging and more institution involvement I think its becoming useless.

I don't have a vested interest in the ISEE or any other indicator and, of course, I don't care if you find it useful or not, there are thousands of different ways to analyze the market and everyone's different.

But once again, as I said in my previous post, "The 52 week high on the indicator was 218 on May 3, 2006, a couple of days before the market tanked. We're up 17% since the ISEE 52 week low in March. Is that so hard to understand?" Apparently, it is.

It's unwise to dismiss something based on generalities or personal whims instead of specifics based on facts.

 

[hedgeking]

feb 26th and 27th the isee was 96 and 111 before we dropped 750 pts fast so it missed that. i also looked back to 2002 and 2003 before some big drops and rises and the records spotty. so its got 50% accuracy so just throw a dart

 

[piezoe]

Zebra says:

" No, if the US were to print dollars and use them, for example, to buy a new statue (or computer or desk or whatever) from Europe, the dollar would go down but inflation would be exported to europe.

Ah, but Zebra, we are exporting our inflation, as you'll find out when you exchange the dollar denominated interest on the US Treasuries you bought for Euros. On behalf of all U.S. citizens may i offer you our sincere gratitude for doing your part to help us inflate our way out of debt.

 

[FourZebra]

Quote from piezoe:

Zebra says:

" No, if the US were to print dollars and use them, for example, to buy a new statue (or computer or desk or whatever) from Europe, the dollar would go down but inflation would be exported to europe.

Ah, but Zebra, we are exporting our inflation, as you'll find out when you exchange the dollar denominated interest on the US Treasuries you bought for Euros. On behalf of all U.S. citizens may i offer you our sincere gratitude for doing your part to help us inflate our way out of debt.

I think you, like 99.9% of your fellow Americans are seriously mistaken.
You can only inflate your way out of debt as long as your creditors allow you to, and other countries will only continue to allow it until they can fight back.
Five years from now china will be a serious threat and it will be clear that the world's balance of power has shifted. At that point, they can export inflation (and alot more) to you and you can't do anything about it, or they can simply stop buying treasuries.
If the US's biggest creditors stop lending, interest rates spike, the dollar rallies, and you deflate your way _into_ debt. By then you have a very very very difficult to solve economic problem because printing money usually only helps if you can inflate someone else or if you're economy is in recession, in all other cases it usually makes matters worse.
The smart thing to do now would be to 'cooperate' (ie, play by the rules) and try to foster their cooperation in the future, because if you defect now (ie screw their reserves by printing endlessly ), in five years they can defect forever and do whatever suits their economy best.
This table makes it very clear:
http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
They're a communist country, they're ok with extremes and they change their minds pretty quickly
You should be angry at your government for destroying your future, not supporting them and thanking your creditors for being stupid, they are not...

 

[hels02]

You are mistaken.

Right now, China knows that their growth is tied to the US's. That may change in the future, but today is not the future.

They know we're inflating our way out of debt, and all they can do is watch. No one with common sense can see a better option for anyone involved, since the other option is default.

Further, China is a defensive and not an offensive nation. The US is the new Sparta... putting the screws to us means war. I think they are aware of this too.

 

[DeepFried]

Quote from hedgeking:

feb 26th and 27th the isee was 96 and 111 before we dropped 750 pts fast so it missed that. i also looked back to 2002 and 2003 before some big drops and rises and the records spotty. so its got 50% accuracy so just throw a dart

Feb 27th was THE DAY THE MARKET TANKED. Are you really this dumb or are you just screwing with me? Do you actually prefer indicators that lag?

The ISEE spiked to 156 on Feb 16th giving anyone with an IQ above room temperature an indication that we were likely to pull back.

 

[FourZebra]

Quote from hels02:

You are mistaken.

Right now, China knows that their growth is tied to the US's. That may change in the future, but today is not the future.

They know we're inflating our way out of debt, and all they can do is watch. No one with common sense can see a better option for anyone involved, since the other option is default.

Further, China is a defensive and not an offensive nation. The US is the new Sparta... putting the screws to us means war. I think they are aware of this too.

Today _is_ the future, financially. Noone invests (daytraders don't invest) in a stock for its current value, only for its future value. Like I said, in a few years, their growth won't be tied to the US anymore than the US's will be tied to theirs, so you won't have any bargaining power. Right now all they can do is watch and they are, in a few years they can do whatever they want, they have 5 guys working twice as much for every one of yours. Besides, I wouldn't exactly call them "defensive".. Iran claims to be "defensive" as well (and who believes the US more than them?) but it's pointless to think about war between the US and china, it wont happen this century with 99% certainty (MAD), but that leaves china in a much better position because it was the best bargaining tool the US had..
This is going a little offtopic.. all of this was just to make the point that the stock market rally cannot be justified because economic growth prospects are being harmed by current policy.