Its Looking More and More Like its Hillary 2020

gwb-trading said:
Actually you just need to go read the summaries at 538 to know this is not true statistically.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-democratic-special-election-wave-looks-like/


DailyKos has been tracking special election results since December 2016, comparing the results of the contests with the results of the 2016 election in the same districts. The pattern has been consistent, if not uniform: Democrats have gained, on average, 14 points in their 2016 presidential margins against Republicans in special elections.
 
jem said:
late last month you said there was zero chance Trump's nominee would be confirmed. So if its zero chance you are giving 100 to one? you still sticking with zero chance?

as far as 18 and 20 its still to far to say how the republicans or Trump will do. I might not even vote for Trump... but as I said his chances are far improved over a few months ago. If polls are not showing that.. their rigged.
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I'll be happy to bet you that you've not stated three times that I am on ignore.
 
Tony Stark said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-democratic-special-election-wave-looks-like/


DailyKos has been tracking special election results since December 2016, comparing the results of the contests with the results of the 2016 election in the same districts. The pattern has been consistent, if not uniform: Democrats have gained, on average, 14 points in their 2016 presidential margins against Republicans in special elections.
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And yet... over and over again with only a couple of notable exceptions the Democrats still lose the election. Gaining 14 points in a special election with lower turnout than in 2016 is pretty meaningless when you still lose the election -- which is the entire point I am trying to make.

There will be no "blue wave" in November that magically greatly enhances the Democratic representation in Congress or in states. Do I expect the Democrats to pick up some seats? Yes. The opposition party typically picks up seats in mid-term elections - it would be unusual if the Democrats did not pick up seats. But I hardly see a "blue wave". This is just wishful thinking by liberals who appear blind to the current total disarray and disorganization of the national Democratic party.
 
gwb-trading said:
And yet... over and over again with only a couple of notable exceptions the Democrats still lose the election. Gaining 14 points in a special election with lower turnout than in 2016 is pretty meaningless when you still lose the election -- which is the entire point I am trying to make.

There will be no "blue wave" in November that magically greatly enhances the Democratic representation in Congress or in states. Do I expect the Democrats to pick up some seats? Yes. The opposition party typically picks up seats in mid-term elections - it would be unusual if the Democrats did not pick up seats. But I hardly see a "blue wave". This is just wishful thinking by liberals who appear blind to the current total disarray and disorganization of the national Democratic party.
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Would you consider (your) losing the House as a Blue Wave? How about losing the Senate as well?
 
destriero said:
Would you consider (your) losing the House as a Blue Wave? How about losing the Senate as well?
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I don't believe the Republicans will lose either the House or Senate based on the current polling in states for these seats. Of course the situation can change between now and November. However the Democratic candidates need to find realistic policy issues to run on rather than the "hate Trump" messaging.
 
Tony Stark said:
http://www.politifact.com/florida/s...emocrats-gained-50-seats-formerly-held-repub/

Fifty seats have already changed hands from the Republicans to the Democrats since Donald Trump was elected."

— Corey Lewandowski on Sunday, February 11th, 2018 in a rally in Sarasota


"we rate this claim Mostly True."
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And 50 seats is a tiny percentage of those that were up for re-election in the various states. Yet the media ignores the seats that flipped from Democrats to Republicans -- while putting out regular counts with bold headlines like "Democrats flip 41st state legislative seat of Trump era in Pennsylvania" every time a seat goes from Republican to Democrat.

Have the Democrats made some gains in seats in some states? Yes
Have the Democrats increased their percentage of the vote in special elections? Yes
Has the opposition party typically made gains near the mid-terms in flipping seats in both states and Congress? Yes
Have the recent increases by Democrats been much greater than historical gains by opposition parties near mid-terms? No
 
Wallet said:
Just the opposite Trump has gained support.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-trumps-popularity-is-holding-up-by-state/


JUN. 15, 2018 AT 5:58 AM
How Trump’s Popularity Is Holding Up, By State


Let’s keep things simple this week: Morning Consult just released its latest edition of
President Trump’s approval ratings by state
. We know generally that Trump is less popular overall than at the start of his term. But there are pretty wide variations in how much his popularity has shifted by state.

1. Trump’s net approval has declined in all 50 states since he took office

This isn’t totally surprising, as Trump’s net approval rating — the percentage of people who approve of the president minus the percentage who disapprove — has declined nationally since January 2017.

 
gwb-trading said:
I don't believe the Republicans will lose either the House or Senate based on the current polling in states for these seats. Of course the situation can change between now and November. However the Democratic candidates need to find realistic policy issues to run on rather than the "hate Trump" messaging.
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Kamala Harris will be the DNC's nominee in 2020.
It'll be a close race too. She'll get a lot of the women who voted for Trump.
She'll be a very strong candidate.
 
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