Whens the last 300-400 pt down day? 2 yrs or so? We've had week after week and month after month of grinding and more grinding that the element of fear has almost been extinguished from the minds of traders. How many sunday nights have you had one thought the futures might be down even 10? I bet the answer is zero.The complacency is staggering. A 14 vix greatly over states the level of fear. It should be more like 5 to properly measure the true state of fear.Were at a perfect time to reinstate what the mkts about and theres 2 sides to every trade and that the mkt can fall now and then.Right now its like a basketball game at 100-0. Its like 9 times the Titanic on one side of the boat and yet it hasn't sunk.Lets get back to a 2 sided mkt were bad things are punished
Its been so so long traders can hardly remember fear
- Thread starter hafez50
- Start date
There was a 353 down day back in June. This is an uptrend, so the moves up run further than the moves down. However, bulls take the stairs and bears jump out the window, so the moves up tend to be longer grinds. Which is why many traders prefer to swing counter to the uptrend, for that quick gratification. 
ok forgot about that but the mkts up 70% since the oct 2011 loves is basically a grinded straight line with small pullins. Its been almost 5 yrs since 20% pullin which is the 4th longest ever I believe. What makes this stick out this by far the strongest mkt with the weakest economy ever seen for so long
There is plenty of fear in this market. Fear of missing the upside move. That's a real issue. For most traders, opportunities lost hurts as much as capital lost. Both are economic costs.
a great quote that stymied my bearishness and turned me into a longterm permabull a few years ago on cnbc was: "as long as stocks are priced in fiat currency they will continue to go up"
i do think we are overdue for a downturn but no longer am looking for new lows (ie s&p sub 666). the real question is whether or not you want to buy stocks vs physical assets to escape the downward spiraling fiat currencies of the world
i do think we are overdue for a downturn but no longer am looking for new lows (ie s&p sub 666). the real question is whether or not you want to buy stocks vs physical assets to escape the downward spiraling fiat currencies of the world
If traders concentrated on setups, which tend to be bi-directional, regards for overall directions would be less of a concern.
Touche.
While I agree with your point; I do want to make another. You mentioned vol was not elevated currently in another thread I believe. Of course that is true , but you are not implying vols (spx) by being low are a leading indicator to buy the market?
Obviously I read vol levels very differently than some posters who have said that the fact you have 14 levels that somehow that's smart money.
Vol is endogenous. In other words, other variables are inputs into the vol output. If you want to look "forward", you have to analyze the inputs, not the outputs. So no, I don't think a 14 vix is telling me to buy the market. The 14 vix is telling you what you "should" have done to get at the current output level in the S&P. You should have been long. Going forward, you have to analyze the various inputs. Regarding smart money, one could say that the current VIX level is telling you what smart money "already did".
The comment on the other thread by FSU was just silly regarding some random strike on a weekly option that had a stale bid by a likely short looking to cover and free up margin on his balance sheet. It's absurd to base any meaningful analyses off that.