Well I've been on Elite Trader for what feels like a very long time. I've seen many a compatriot vanquish into nothingness and a whole group of you may not of been around in the good old days when we played THE BARRONS GAME. For the uninitiated, THE BARRONS game is when we read Barron's together and as a community pick ONE idea out of the rag and ACTUALLY BUY IT! Now back when life seemed freer and the beer tasted better, this fun game yielded a winning percentage over 80%. Not only did we have a fun read together but we made money. Now of course with such hardship all around it may be much harder to win at the Barron's Game... or much easier, I'm not sure... so without further ado, your host for the festivities.... STONEY!
Thank you Wink. Today folks since we have not played in so long we are going to skip Alan A and the usual upfront negativity and start with the market Week portion and work our way back. Lets begin.
Dow tumbles 5% in Volatile week. tell me something I don't know... the only problem is we are in a rally and Barron's doesn't even know it. The charts all look the same, in fact my four year old has taken to drawing a line that falls off to the right and he holds it up and says " look daddy it's going down. " I know son, I know.
Buried at the end of Kopin Tan's article Dow Tumbles article is the truth as I see it... " positive divergences " are mentioned... those who know me know I live for them... it's what makes the crystal ball less hazy... anyway the low oil price has resulted in the Transports holding far above their lows as we revisit stocks bottoms... interesting the way the mechanisms of the market work... Also the amount of new lows in CONTRACTING! 1/4 of what they were on Oct 10. The " massive " redemptions at Hedge Funds is also mentioned and their now huge cash reserve... so what if they over shoot and redemptions are not that bad? A trading range is mentioned S&P 820-1000, any break over a thousand will lure all the Hedge money back in... so that is the plan.... my eyes glaze over the bear argument.
1st stock mention* Oil-Dri Corp! (ODC)..WTF! Cat Litter, oh no things have gotten this bad, what did we all buy back in the day Chemed? or something for the same reason- yes in a recession people STILL CANT STAND THE SMELL OF CATS! It's been proven. It's up 230% since 2001, take that tech! Just 13 X earnings, stk at $17. Hum, we are off to an interesting start!
Now into Charting the Market and my eyes immediately land on GREEN MOUNTAIN COFFEE ROASTERS, @ $29 it's held up rather well, especially when you consider Starbuck's fate... they should more be compared to PEET. Company reported strong qtr & offered upbeat guidance, stk joted $25 to $31Yikes. This is the problem with the way I work- I massage watch lists until they are down to a buyable amount of companies that share certain aspects of growth, value and momentum... while general scans that pick up everything can be more useful for the active trader because names you used to cover but gave up on like GMCR pop up on volume and thus make it back to the watch list faster.... This is stk #2.
On to Insider Buys and woa doggy HERBALIFE! jah love this stock in the old days... what- 5 different buyers??? have they reported yet... oh I'm getting excited this could be it... 63,200 shares, not bad.. not great... Stk #3 and looky looky ISTAR FINACIAL! I've been waiting for this tel.... here's a story- a father in my preschool who I am friendly with comes from the family of one of the first hedge funds or mutual funds I can't remember BIG Midwest money, anyway he's in big on this ISTAR and he told me about it at $15 and it's CRASHED horribly but I watch it because I know his team of guys did pick it, there must be some inherent value there... well a few days ago I saw in the paper biggest gainers almost all IASTAR preferred shares and huge gains of 30 plus %... so I looked at the common and it wasn't up that much and I dropped it... now in refection some announcement must have juiced those prefferds, like hey we can make the yield payments and now we have 2 insiders buying 506,000 shares!!! Oh folks, I'm getting a good feeling about this Barron's Game. stk #4
Moving On, big profile AMERICAN EXPRESS , holy crap it's down to $20. Maybe the world IS ending, I keep going back and forth. Down 61%. The essence of the article is Amex nowhere near it's cash / credit limit people misunderstand the co, yada yada, Barron's says in a year the stk should hit $30. Who can argue with that? Another strong contender folks. stk #5
Next Up GILIAD POISED FOR GAINS... one of 16 stks to own in a glabol recession says JP Morgan, I tend to prefer smaller bio players because they often get taken out by larger players so I don't know about this one. Aids is their specialty unfortunately still with us but maybe not top of the medical problem pyramid now. There is a kicker, the Gov is yanking a competitors product off the market... Glaxo's, so pe of 18 GILD is on the list @$44.45. #6
Brief defense of Barrons bull call on Starbucks... SBUK... hate this because I've begun looking into their real estate holdings and applying that to their stk price and now I have two coffee roasters on the list which is typical stonedinvesting, it's easy to chose the wrong one... often the worse story rebounds faster!... Ugh. The stk is under $9! Oppenheimer uses a model that looks out 10 yewars and factors in real estate and cost cutting and sales in a way I cannot they come up with a 1 YEAR price target of $22. Hummmm. Stk #7
On To Colgate and I'm not even going to read the article. Yes A very good IRA stk, people have to have toothpaste... but I will note that careful analysis at the retail level shows cutbacks in some surprising areas like Paper Towels and socks! Frozen food way up! Speaking of food and this is not in Barrons but I read where the Main lobstermen are hurting big time and the price of the worlds best lobster has plunged to that of frozen chicken. $3 something a pound now go around NYC and order lobster and you will note NO PRICE REDUCTION My favorite Lobster Roll place Pearl On I think Corneila street they have like a $27 whopper, are they bringing their price down? Hell no and their imput cost is 100% cheaper... makes you wonder on the bigger scale about low cost dining option RED LOBSTER doesn't it?
They may be part of Brinker I forget....
Anyway, Latin American sales up huge for Colgate 21% in the 3rd qtr. Stk #8
Next Up HONDA! Yes already bought by my mother. her top pick for the year. My mother is near perfect in picking round trips, they all do go up a lot and they all do go right back to where they started. One can enjoy the ride though and apparently one can enjoy the ride in a Honda. My mom likes all the battery Green angles and the low millage the cars get. PE of 9 operating income down 41% but this is the best of a bad bunch. With all the buzz about saving our car makers-- I wonder if japan might throw some money at Honda to keep their great company ahead? That theory is not in the article but I'm putting it out there. I like this pick. Stk #9
CHARLES SCHWAB... Ok folks lets stop right here. This is a great BARRONS GAME! I've been playing with myself for all these weekends and the issues have sucked... the editors have really gone out of their way here to bring us some good ideas and we must listen. ( I know you all are going to clip that playing with myself part- but it's true in every way!) I'm not going to read this article either, the name has been brought to me already by a few smart people. Not great growth 2008 PE 15.8 , 2009 PE of 14.3, I usually look for a bigger spread there.
Stk #10
In Dividends, Pharmaceutical Product developed is mentioned and they point to a prior bullish piece on the name on Aug 12... This is a very well run outsourcing co for drug makers and a stock I have used in years past. With a raised dividend PPD could certainly be worth a look. Especiallly since it's trading as a 50% off sale.
Stk #11
And that's it folks. What a game. What a time.
What new ideas we have.... ok let's run through the list....
PPD
SCHW
HMC
CL
SBUK
GILD
AMX
SFI
GMCR
HLF
ODC
>>> Wow ELEVEN new names... the art of the Barrons game folks is first you read the long winded and negative paper through my eyes and my twenty plus years of investing pulls out the more relevant names... but THEN YOU THE ELITE TRADERS each leave a post here on which of the eleven is the best choice for IMMEDIATE investment... and then we buy the winner and make some money.
In these hard times folks it's hard to generate watch lists, you buy stocks and just assume they are going to be down the next day... the uselessness of the endeavor makes one tend to stop and then you allow one stk on your list (AMAG) to explode for 80% with you on the sidelines and you remember why we all play the market in the first place.
Lets hear from you all... do the research and have the reasons, we will not use popularity as our ultimate decision maker but rather popularity combined with best argument. Thank You all for playing THE B*A*R*R*O*N*S GAME!~ stoney
Thank you Wink. Today folks since we have not played in so long we are going to skip Alan A and the usual upfront negativity and start with the market Week portion and work our way back. Lets begin.
Dow tumbles 5% in Volatile week. tell me something I don't know... the only problem is we are in a rally and Barron's doesn't even know it. The charts all look the same, in fact my four year old has taken to drawing a line that falls off to the right and he holds it up and says " look daddy it's going down. " I know son, I know.
Buried at the end of Kopin Tan's article Dow Tumbles article is the truth as I see it... " positive divergences " are mentioned... those who know me know I live for them... it's what makes the crystal ball less hazy... anyway the low oil price has resulted in the Transports holding far above their lows as we revisit stocks bottoms... interesting the way the mechanisms of the market work... Also the amount of new lows in CONTRACTING! 1/4 of what they were on Oct 10. The " massive " redemptions at Hedge Funds is also mentioned and their now huge cash reserve... so what if they over shoot and redemptions are not that bad? A trading range is mentioned S&P 820-1000, any break over a thousand will lure all the Hedge money back in... so that is the plan.... my eyes glaze over the bear argument.
1st stock mention* Oil-Dri Corp! (ODC)..WTF! Cat Litter, oh no things have gotten this bad, what did we all buy back in the day Chemed? or something for the same reason- yes in a recession people STILL CANT STAND THE SMELL OF CATS! It's been proven. It's up 230% since 2001, take that tech! Just 13 X earnings, stk at $17. Hum, we are off to an interesting start!
Now into Charting the Market and my eyes immediately land on GREEN MOUNTAIN COFFEE ROASTERS, @ $29 it's held up rather well, especially when you consider Starbuck's fate... they should more be compared to PEET. Company reported strong qtr & offered upbeat guidance, stk joted $25 to $31Yikes. This is the problem with the way I work- I massage watch lists until they are down to a buyable amount of companies that share certain aspects of growth, value and momentum... while general scans that pick up everything can be more useful for the active trader because names you used to cover but gave up on like GMCR pop up on volume and thus make it back to the watch list faster.... This is stk #2.
On to Insider Buys and woa doggy HERBALIFE! jah love this stock in the old days... what- 5 different buyers??? have they reported yet... oh I'm getting excited this could be it... 63,200 shares, not bad.. not great... Stk #3 and looky looky ISTAR FINACIAL! I've been waiting for this tel.... here's a story- a father in my preschool who I am friendly with comes from the family of one of the first hedge funds or mutual funds I can't remember BIG Midwest money, anyway he's in big on this ISTAR and he told me about it at $15 and it's CRASHED horribly but I watch it because I know his team of guys did pick it, there must be some inherent value there... well a few days ago I saw in the paper biggest gainers almost all IASTAR preferred shares and huge gains of 30 plus %... so I looked at the common and it wasn't up that much and I dropped it... now in refection some announcement must have juiced those prefferds, like hey we can make the yield payments and now we have 2 insiders buying 506,000 shares!!! Oh folks, I'm getting a good feeling about this Barron's Game. stk #4
Moving On, big profile AMERICAN EXPRESS , holy crap it's down to $20. Maybe the world IS ending, I keep going back and forth. Down 61%. The essence of the article is Amex nowhere near it's cash / credit limit people misunderstand the co, yada yada, Barron's says in a year the stk should hit $30. Who can argue with that? Another strong contender folks. stk #5
Next Up GILIAD POISED FOR GAINS... one of 16 stks to own in a glabol recession says JP Morgan, I tend to prefer smaller bio players because they often get taken out by larger players so I don't know about this one. Aids is their specialty unfortunately still with us but maybe not top of the medical problem pyramid now. There is a kicker, the Gov is yanking a competitors product off the market... Glaxo's, so pe of 18 GILD is on the list @$44.45. #6
Brief defense of Barrons bull call on Starbucks... SBUK... hate this because I've begun looking into their real estate holdings and applying that to their stk price and now I have two coffee roasters on the list which is typical stonedinvesting, it's easy to chose the wrong one... often the worse story rebounds faster!... Ugh. The stk is under $9! Oppenheimer uses a model that looks out 10 yewars and factors in real estate and cost cutting and sales in a way I cannot they come up with a 1 YEAR price target of $22. Hummmm. Stk #7
On To Colgate and I'm not even going to read the article. Yes A very good IRA stk, people have to have toothpaste... but I will note that careful analysis at the retail level shows cutbacks in some surprising areas like Paper Towels and socks! Frozen food way up! Speaking of food and this is not in Barrons but I read where the Main lobstermen are hurting big time and the price of the worlds best lobster has plunged to that of frozen chicken. $3 something a pound now go around NYC and order lobster and you will note NO PRICE REDUCTION My favorite Lobster Roll place Pearl On I think Corneila street they have like a $27 whopper, are they bringing their price down? Hell no and their imput cost is 100% cheaper... makes you wonder on the bigger scale about low cost dining option RED LOBSTER doesn't it?
They may be part of Brinker I forget....
Anyway, Latin American sales up huge for Colgate 21% in the 3rd qtr. Stk #8
Next Up HONDA! Yes already bought by my mother. her top pick for the year. My mother is near perfect in picking round trips, they all do go up a lot and they all do go right back to where they started. One can enjoy the ride though and apparently one can enjoy the ride in a Honda. My mom likes all the battery Green angles and the low millage the cars get. PE of 9 operating income down 41% but this is the best of a bad bunch. With all the buzz about saving our car makers-- I wonder if japan might throw some money at Honda to keep their great company ahead? That theory is not in the article but I'm putting it out there. I like this pick. Stk #9
CHARLES SCHWAB... Ok folks lets stop right here. This is a great BARRONS GAME! I've been playing with myself for all these weekends and the issues have sucked... the editors have really gone out of their way here to bring us some good ideas and we must listen. ( I know you all are going to clip that playing with myself part- but it's true in every way!) I'm not going to read this article either, the name has been brought to me already by a few smart people. Not great growth 2008 PE 15.8 , 2009 PE of 14.3, I usually look for a bigger spread there.
Stk #10
In Dividends, Pharmaceutical Product developed is mentioned and they point to a prior bullish piece on the name on Aug 12... This is a very well run outsourcing co for drug makers and a stock I have used in years past. With a raised dividend PPD could certainly be worth a look. Especiallly since it's trading as a 50% off sale.
Stk #11
And that's it folks. What a game. What a time.
What new ideas we have.... ok let's run through the list....
PPD
SCHW
HMC
CL
SBUK
GILD
AMX
SFI
GMCR
HLF
ODC
>>> Wow ELEVEN new names... the art of the Barrons game folks is first you read the long winded and negative paper through my eyes and my twenty plus years of investing pulls out the more relevant names... but THEN YOU THE ELITE TRADERS each leave a post here on which of the eleven is the best choice for IMMEDIATE investment... and then we buy the winner and make some money.
In these hard times folks it's hard to generate watch lists, you buy stocks and just assume they are going to be down the next day... the uselessness of the endeavor makes one tend to stop and then you allow one stk on your list (AMAG) to explode for 80% with you on the sidelines and you remember why we all play the market in the first place.
Lets hear from you all... do the research and have the reasons, we will not use popularity as our ultimate decision maker but rather popularity combined with best argument. Thank You all for playing THE B*A*R*R*O*N*S GAME!~ stoney