It's A Bear Market.... Confirmed?

[Scataphagos]

1. I don't believe in the notion of "confirmation"... market can give the head-fake at any time regardless.

2. I've posted a few times, "it's not wise to get bearish on the market until it actuall does something bearish".... and I mentioned "close and hold below the spring lows".

Another bear indication is the slope of the 50MA and 200MA turn down, AND when the market tests one/both of those levels from below, they act as resistance. (Bear markets in general tend to "hold resistance and break supports"... opposite for bull markets, of course.)

All of that appears to be the deal right now. Traditionally bear markets run ~18+ months and maybe up to 3 years.

FWIW...

 

[themickey]

Seeing if this attachment works...
Yup it does.

 

[curiousGeorge8]

How long the bear market will last depends whether a recession follows. In 1987, the bear market was short as the economy was health.

 

[Scataphagos]

How long the bear market will last depends whether a recession follows. In 1987, the bear market was short as the economy was health.

'87 was not a bear market, merely a correction.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

'87 was not a bear market, merely a correction.

Made a correction for you as it stands now. "18/19 was not a bear market, merely a correction"

 

[Scataphagos]

Made a correction for you as it stands now. "18/19 was not a bear market, merely a correction"

If you mean "2018-2019" is not a bear market, merely a correction... most likely, incorrect.

Bear markets are partly about "prolonged decline and investor despair". We are already ~3 months into this one. The '87 correction was over in less than 2 days.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

If you mean "2018-2019" is not a bear market, merely a correction... most likely, incorrect.

As it stands now, with no follow thru selling yet, it's a correction. Could be classified a bear market at some point.

 

[slugar]

As it stands now, with no follow thru selling yet, it's a correction. Could be classified a bear market at some point.

Not sure why you have to be such a know it all but it gets old

 

[southall]

'87 was not a bear market, merely a correction.

Generally it is accepted that there are at least two types of bull and bear markets.

Short term ones and Secular ones.

Just because a short term bear market is quick to bottom out doesn't mean it wasn't a bear market, it just means it wasn't a secular bear market.

A 20% drop is generally the minimum accepted definition for a bear market. In total the drop in 1987 went well beyond that, something like 33%. And then it took over 600 day to get back to all time highs.

I don't think there is any generally accepted minimum duration for what defines a Secular Bull or Secular Bear market. But at bare minimum i would reckon 5 years.

 

[Scataphagos]

Generally it is accepted that there are at least two types of bull and bear markets.

Short term ones and Secular ones.

Just because a short term bear market is quick to bottom out doesn't mean it wasn't a bear market, it just means it wasn't a secular bear market.

A 20% drop is generally the minimum accepted definition for a bear market. In total the drop in 1987 went well beyond that, something like 33%. And then it took over 600 day to get back to all time highs.

I don't think there is any generally accepted minimum duration for what defines a Secular Bull or Secular Bear market. But at bare minimum i would reckon 5 years.

The big point that you're missing is the "duration and despair"... the grinding down despair of prices and the fear that "you just can't get a break and it's never coming back"... that accompanies bear markets. Just because today's "conventional wisdom says -20% is a bear market", doesn't make it so. More theater than reality.

Bear markets are not about -20%... they are about prolonged negative psychology.

If you've ever held 100% long (or leveraged) through one, you'd know what I mean.