Iterative Refinement

Quote from dkm:

Ehorn - Thanks for posting your chart. Something doesn't seem right with the b2b level 1 from 10:15 to 10:55. It is followed immediately by an r2r 10:55 to 13:00. If the b2b was correct we would be left waiting (and holding) for 2r2b to complete the level 1 sequence. The gaussians are meant to "lead the way" but in real time there is frequently more than one way to draw them that makes sense at the time.
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Yes, you are correct. The annotation is misplaced (or incomplete - and/or incorrect). I chose to leave it - as it is how I observed the gaussians form in the morning.

When one is seeing things incorrectly it will not be long before the market lets them know.

I had perceived a CO sequence completion at 10:15 and a signal to go long. If I was still holding long at 12:15 waiting for a B2B sequence completion then I need to have my head examined. The market simply closed that off as a possibility. It may be that it was closed off sooner (11:25 and 11:35 may have been strong clues). I just was not certain what fractal the market was building at that time. But a breach of the low spoke quite clearly (We were making our way to the real PT2).

Times Eastern and [close-of] bar.
 
Before point 3

This is a time after point 2 and you reversed at the end of the dominant traverse and you have a TELL that you are in a non dominant traverse and your mind is using symbols of the non dominant subset of internals. The market is giving you these TELLS.

You annotate and the platform shows an internal. The first bar has a color; the market gives you the TELL that the color is NOT the color of the channel and it IS the color of the non dominant. In the internal color is not important. On the BO of the internal the color IS important.

The right side of the internal forms the RTL of the channel as you find out you are coming to point 3. AS BO occurs for the internal, if the color changes, you have point 3, IF NOT you are continuing in the advance of the non dominant in the color of the non dominant advance (dominant tape direction) which is ALSO the color of the FIRST BAR.
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Read this while examining what happened between 10:50 and 11:20. For some reason no one has posted a chart with the pertinent (short) channel annotated.
 
Quote from PointOne:

Read this while examining what happened between 10:50 and 11:20. For some reason no one has posted a chart with the pertinent (short) channel annotated.
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Can you post annotations of what you are seeing?
 
1015 pace acceleration => down (also, 1550 carry-over lateral BO => non-dominant)
1020 decreasing volume, close inside previous bar => down

HOLD short :)
 
Quote from jack hershey:



31 Mistakes a trader can make.

They are ranked as well.

1. Being in an incoherent state while trading. This is the fight or flight stance so common and pervasive. Either stance is incoherent.

2. Not understanding or measuring your coherence.

3. Not being completely knowledgeable of your coherent state so that you DO NOT trade when this state is not being maintained.

4. Not having a routine that is repeated over and over while the market being read.

5. Not being mentally differentiated so that you can read the market in real time.

6. Not knowing precisely What Must Come Next (WMCN) on your trading fractal.

7. Not consistently using a complete data subset as the market is read.

Corollary to 7. Acting behaviorally on one data element (the freakout trader).

8. Not understanding that there is only one time in which the market operates and it is named NOW.

9. Not being able to see "What Wasn't That when it occurs.

10. Operating inductively.

Corollary to 10. Not operating deductively.

11. Using anything associated with probability.

Corollary to 11. Not using a binary decision making approach with regard to market parameters.

12. Not being on the right side of the market at all times.

13. Not recognizing that there is NO noise in markets.

14. Not recognizing that the most important aspect of trading is HOLDING as time passes.

15. Not knowing thoroughly what constitutes the difference between the status of the markets and the signals of the market.

16. Not knowing that there is an identity between an exit in NOW and the next entry on the opposite side of the market in NOW at the very same time.

17. Not trading on the same fractal all the time.

Corollary to 17. Shifting fractals to obtain status or signals unknowingly.

18. Not removing original capital upon first doubling in order to do all subsequent trading on profits only.

19. Adding ANY additional capital after the initial capital is traded.

20. Not understanding that price need not be displayed to trade. Displaying price on a chart is NOT a requirement to trade successfully. There were no charts for longer than there have been charts in the financial industry.

21. Not knowing the leading indicators of price.

22. Not knowing that any trading signal used must only come when the HOLD status (See 14.) that could be observed is NOT present in NOW. This applies to all trading strategies.

23. Not knowing that there are three more important panes than the Hold pane and the trading signal pane.

24. Not using the all the market vaiables in the monitoring data set.

25. Not knowing the one to one correspondence of the monitoring and analysis data subsets. (Knowing both sets are finite is a priori)

26. Not knowing the one to one correspondence of the analysis and decision making subsets. (This relationship never changes because of market context).

27. Not knowing that a wash trade is always possible to regain being on the right side of the market.

28. Not knowing the importance of being in the market when price is changing. (Changing price is the only way to make money.

29. Not knowing when the status of the market is such that there is zero possibility of trading signals.

30. Not recognizing all internal price patterns on a given fractal are HOLD status conditions except for expert traders.

31. Not recognizing that the market offers, daily, a multiple of the ATR.

A person learns to trade after hours and NOT during RTH. There is a choice that comes in learning to trade. A person either chooses to learn the language of the markets or learns to make up rules for trading. these two paths at the fork in the road do not overlap. It is like understanding that learning to read and learning to do math are different subjects. One is about language and the other is about using rules to solve problems.

The market is not a problem and mathematics is not the primary knowledge involved in trading. In trading, a language is involved it turns out. Most people will never understand this. Cutten's list applies more to problem solving than the communications aspect of languages. I posted the list I did in a negative context as an NLP consideration. No one who reads the list actually takes in a negative comment but onloy takes in the positive reading of the listed item.

Consider: "Don't fall down on the ice"

Now consider: "walk carefully on the ice".

Which comment allowed you to cross the ice?

For humor, there is a thread on models and their development. In it back testing was done and mentioned. the person finally noticed the leading indicator of price and did not make use of his statisitcal results. He discovered a 92 percent correlation between TA indicators under a certain condition and just chucked the condition in the toilet and flushed it. This guy has all the problems I listed it turns out. So do his colleagues here and in his office (he is hiring).

There is another correlation: the failure rate of potential traders as compared to whether they learn the language of the market or whether they take the fork in the road to develop rule sets for trading.

Making an ATS for either approach (reading or rules) happens in the manner of the child. It either represents how the child's mind learns to read a language or learns how to do arithmetic. MA's are sort of simple and what quants did when they had jobs was induction instead of deduction. Coding the language of the markets is deductive because can only be based upon the use of paradigms (null hypothesis set testing by the appropirate parametric measure). Four measures are used and they are of like kind. This is how all the 31 items on the list are avoided.
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Hi romanus and JHM students

Do I read the chart (06-20-09 02:14 PM, posted by romanus, without any notes) corectly? My notes are as following:

1.Pink Down Traverse (starting at 13:10,Jun 18) became a down Channel

2 Thick red Down trend line (starting at 15:20, jun 18) was the Accelerated Down Traverse of the Pink Down Traverse( starting at 13:10,Jun 18) initialy. After the Pink Down Traverse became a Down Channel, the Red Down thick Down Trend line became Accelerated Down Channel.

3. Thin orange Down Trend line ( starting at 11:10) is a Accelerated Down Traverse of the Dotted Pink ES 5 Min Down Traverse

Comments, please! TIA!
 

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Quote from NYCMB:

Hi romanus and JHM students

Do I read the chart (06-20-09 02:14 PM, posted by romanus, without any notes) corectly? My notes are as following:

1.Pink Down Traverse (starting at 13:10,Jun 18) became a down Channel

2 Thick red Down trend line (starting at 15:20, jun 18) was the Accelerated Down Traverse of the Pink Down Traverse( starting at 13:10,Jun 18) initialy. After the Pink Down Traverse became a Down Channel, the Red Down thick Down Trend line became Accelerated Down Channel.

3. Thin orange Down Trend line ( starting at 11:10) is a Accelerated Down Traverse of the Dotted Pink ES 5 Min Down Traverse

Comments, please! TIA!
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Monday will tell whether or not my rendering accurately represents what's really going on. Let's be patient and wait:)
 
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