Iterative Refinement

Quote from workwithus:

5/13 morning review.preflight.about 45 minutes b/4 eod 5/12 had fbo of down channel rtl.then had retrace and small push toward rtl ending day at 906.75.about 3pts up to down channel rtl.about 14 pts down to down channel ltl.resistance area watching around 912.25-914.50.globex(overnite) high is 911.25 and low 889.25(22 pt. range).5/13 bar one opens at 892.25 with a 14.5 pt. gap down which just happens to be at the down channel ltl.my next support level is 889.50-891 area.i look for either a bounce off or a ve of down channel ltl.i also know there is one more report coming out at 10:00.price immediately pushes down thru the ltl and ve's on irv closing at 891.25 midbar.i will watch very closely for any additional sign of reversal.bar two opens
with a very strong price move down in the first 20 seconds or so to match the low of bar one and then continues down to the globex low of 889.25.i look for possible support and bounce off 889.25.market stalls for about a minute and pushes down thru 889.25 to 886.75 on irv closing at 887.50.i draw a rtl from the high of bar one to the high of bar two and a matching ltl.this new down tape shows a steep ve of the ltl of the down tape so i watch for any sign of retrace(dbv) at the open of bar three.bar three opens and stalls the first two minutes and then pushes up on dbv.our next resistance area is around 899.25-891.00.bar three pushes up to 889.75 and closes at 889.25.i draw a rtl from the bottom of bar two to the bottom of bar three and a matching ltl.bar four starts out pushing down one pt. to 888.25 on drv and then ibgs back to the high of bar three.then with about 1 minute left in bar four it pushes thru bar three's high on ibv to 891.50 closing at 891 and providing wmcn for the up move to be confirmed.i draw a rtl from the bottom of bar three to the bottom of bar four and a matching ltl providing a ff tape.bar five opens pushes up to 892 then stalls on dbv creating a doji bar.now large bars like bar two can sometimes produce large range laterals and sure enough we have a lateral after bar five closes inside bar two's high.i look for retrace on drv.bar six opens and stalls on drv creating an inside bar.i draw a rtl from the high of bar five to the high of bar six and a matching ltl for a new down tape.the bottom of bar two is 886.75 the lod and about 4 pts away.also in laterals the guassian volume levels can sometimes be confusing.bar seven pushes down to 887.75 on irv and closes at 888.75 still in the lateral but right at the rtl drawn from bottom of bar two to bottom of bar three.will it bounce? bar eight opens and bounces to 890.25 closing at 889.50 on dbv.bar eight is still in the lateral.
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grammartime.jpg
 
"A little wit, among foolish people, will pass a man for a great genius" (T. Fielding Proverbs of all Nations (1824) 23); also used of ability as well as wit. Cf. [Erasmus Adages iii. iv.] in regione caecorum rex est luscus, in the kingdom of the blind the one-eyed man is king.

"In the kingdome of blind men the one ey'd is king." [1640 G. Herbert Outlandish Proverbs no. 469]

Related to: ignorance; rulers and ruled :)))
 
Quote from Neoxx:



I know it sounds like a truism, but the answer is always in the chart, even if not immediately apparent.
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Whether the answer is there or not depends very much on the question, and since we don't know details of how gucci is attempting to trade, or where he went wrong, I don't think it's a given that more chart study will solve the problem.

The 'answer' to market structure and dynamics may be in the chart, but how to trade that structure with consistent success seems to me a different question.

- palinuro
 
Quote from palinuro:

Whether the answer is there or not depends very much on the question, and since we don't know details of how gucci is attempting to trade, or where he went wrong, I don't think it's a given that more chart study will solve the problem.

The 'answer' to market structure and dynamics may be in the chart, but how to trade that structure with consistent success seems to me a different question.

- palinuro
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We see clearly, to annotate clearly, to see clearly. A positive feedback loop.

Perhaps my analysis is simplistic, but it seems a trader's job is merely to stay on the Right side of the market.

It would follow that consistent identification of the Right side is sufficient to achieve consistent success.

Every day, I appreciate more depth and richness within a simple ES 5-minute chart... certainly above and beyond that needed to determine the Right side at any one moment.

While we may not yet recognize all of the Tells in realtime, they are indisputably present in the debrief.
 
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