Iterative Refinement

Quote from palinuro:

OK, but as you say context is crucial - a spike bar is significant because of its H and L, not just its O and C.

You could try it and see, but my sense is the measure you propose is too arbitrary to be consistently useful. Also, there are plenty of examples every day when increased velocity, like increased volume, marks the end of a move...

- palinuro
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Thanks for your input palinuro. Correct that a spike bar has other important attributes, including context.

Very true also what you say about 'move-ending' configurations but what I'm thinking is that again, in context, there are combinations of pace, volatility and price velocity which can facilitate correct anticipation.

lj

Edit: Like that 12:35 ES 5 min bar. High pace, high volatility and high price velocity = something.

Ah. Just as I thought - a dragonfly doji followed by another almost a bozu.
 
Quote from R/R:

thanks Mike. You're right - I missed that double bottom and you have some very good points.
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I missed it too the first go around :). The double bottoms that are reverse pennants are like taping to an outside bar.
 
Entered a short trade on March 23, 2009 for SNX.

Symbol: SNX
Upper Band = 192,295
Average DU = 128,317
Lower Band = 64,338
FRV = 384,950
Peak = 769,900

384,455 end of day volume
then three days later gap up potential 14 percent loss

despite the stops got creamed. Any suggestions on alternate exit strategies?
 
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