Quote from jack hershey:
I...
the "tell" you are not receiving and connecting to your knowledge was the role of V in the P, V relationship. Without V, you are doing the CW PA inductive thinking as you state in this post. Induction is not a good idea.
To leave induction behind you will be difficult since it is familiar to you and the science of examining the markets through other alternatives is unfamiliar from what you say....
Thank you Jack for continuing this discussion.
At the outset let me say to all that there is no claim on my part to have found a better way to assimilate what has been presented in the JHT nor should my remarks of last evening be misconstrued in such a way as to imply that I believe that Jack's supported learning method does not work. It does work. Rather I am saying that my approach to understanding the content of JHT is different from the way he came to understand it.
For some time before starting to explore JHT on the various ET threads, I had been working on my own looking at volume and trying to understand how it related to price. My observations permitted the appreciation that indeed P and V were woven tightly together but it was not until reading his material that I saw that my view was not as complete as it could be. So after three years of solitary endeavour, I came on board the Hershey train and have not regretted that decision for a moment.
From Wikpedia:
Induction is used to ascribe properties or relations to types based on an observation instance (i.e., on a number of observations or experiences); or to formulate laws based on limited observations of recurring phenomenal patterns.
If one is fortunate, deductive reasoning can be applied to the solution of an unknown. However frequently one does not have this luxury and thus, IMO, inductive reasoning has a definite role in trying to discover what is there but as yet cannot be seen. However there comes a point when the scientist must move on to something different which by its very nature demands that induction be abandoned. I have been at that branch point before and had no problem making the leap.
Let me assure you Jack that while I clearly do not have your appreciation of the tell, I am aware that we are talking about V. That the tape has fractals above and below it is clear. That the logic is Boolean and thus non-probabilistic is likewise clear. How exactly you came to where you are in terms of your appreciation of the market is not something which concerns me and I say that with due deference.
It took time for the neuroplasticity heretics to displace the CW arbiters of the brain but displace them they did. So we have a brave new world of neocortical (and other) frontiers opened up to us due to their efforts. But their methods are crude and so we must not become too tightly tethered to what they say because without any doubt there is more and better yet to come.
Feynman has said, "There is no harm in doubt and skepticism, for it is through these that new discoveries are made." Although I don't play the bongos, I share his enthusiasm for revelling in our ignorance and then discovering small ways to make it less.
lj
