Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Chaseddream I found Spydertrader's comments in the first journal which I think somewhat answers your question.
Spydertrader:
"In order to answer your question, I need to break it down into several parts: trading part time while working, trading full time before the journal, trading during the journal. When I traded part time while still employed in the Pharmaceutical Industry, I had few trades, with 65% of those trades profitable. The gains on each profitable trade ranged between 10% and 12% of the stock price. Losses mainly occurred in the 3% to 4% range with few at 5%. Once I began trading full time, the number of trades increased, and the number of profitable trades increased as well. However, the gains on each trade fell between 5% to 10%. Once I began this journal. The overall number of trades decreased, but the percentage of profitable trades increased. I attribute the changing rates of return to changing market conditions. In my experience, the number of trades, and the strength of each move increases in bull markets. The number of trades and the strength of each trade decreases in flat or sideways markets, and decreases further in bear markets. I have found the system to work in all markets. It (at least in my experience) works better in rising markets. In addition, much of my profits have occurred during "short sale" trades. The Jack Hershey Equities System remains a 'long only' based system, and as such, Jack Hershey has written little on the methods involved when shorting Hershey Stocks. I have posted the results of the journal thus far, and I expect you will run across that document as your reading progresses."
Spydertrader:
"In order to answer your question, I need to break it down into several parts: trading part time while working, trading full time before the journal, trading during the journal. When I traded part time while still employed in the Pharmaceutical Industry, I had few trades, with 65% of those trades profitable. The gains on each profitable trade ranged between 10% and 12% of the stock price. Losses mainly occurred in the 3% to 4% range with few at 5%. Once I began trading full time, the number of trades increased, and the number of profitable trades increased as well. However, the gains on each trade fell between 5% to 10%. Once I began this journal. The overall number of trades decreased, but the percentage of profitable trades increased. I attribute the changing rates of return to changing market conditions. In my experience, the number of trades, and the strength of each move increases in bull markets. The number of trades and the strength of each trade decreases in flat or sideways markets, and decreases further in bear markets. I have found the system to work in all markets. It (at least in my experience) works better in rising markets. In addition, much of my profits have occurred during "short sale" trades. The Jack Hershey Equities System remains a 'long only' based system, and as such, Jack Hershey has written little on the methods involved when shorting Hershey Stocks. I have posted the results of the journal thus far, and I expect you will run across that document as your reading progresses."
As is the norm, another day of bludgeoning from the market. The result of clinging to outdated and incorrect information. I will highlight two.
Exhibit #1:
Holding long on the 14:10 bar. Why? Because even though we had two consecutive closes outside a lateral we did not have a return to dominance that completed the up traverse. Result - 6 point loss waiting for the "inevitable" return to dominance.
Exhibit #2:
Holding short at 15:05 because we had not established a Pt2 outside the up traverse and again the 15:20 IRV did provide the requisite "return to dominance" to complete a sequence.
Sheesh. New rule for Guava; if a sequence "appears" to be complete and price stops moving in one direction its change. Pure and simple. This is dumb enough that even I may be able to someday extract money from the market. But then again, I hate to continue to set myself up for failure with such lofty goals. It only leads to continued disappointment.
Exhibit #1:
Holding long on the 14:10 bar. Why? Because even though we had two consecutive closes outside a lateral we did not have a return to dominance that completed the up traverse. Result - 6 point loss waiting for the "inevitable" return to dominance.
Exhibit #2:
Holding short at 15:05 because we had not established a Pt2 outside the up traverse and again the 15:20 IRV did provide the requisite "return to dominance" to complete a sequence.
Sheesh. New rule for Guava; if a sequence "appears" to be complete and price stops moving in one direction its change. Pure and simple. This is dumb enough that even I may be able to someday extract money from the market. But then again, I hate to continue to set myself up for failure with such lofty goals. It only leads to continued disappointment.