Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Quote from Mr_Black:
text book traverse signals today....
I see what you are saying Mr. B. but you do what you do every day which is to basically ignore what happened the previous day. You start the day 'fresh' and construct your tapes and traverses based on what is happening today.
I am NOT criticizing what you do in any way. You make money with your method. It avoids all the potential crap from carryover, not the least of which are the sharp, lacinating pains coming from the neocortex as brain cells explode in frustration (Go figure. Brain neuronal matter is usually insensitive to pain).
Your method reminds me of a simpler time like January in the Futures III thread. Maybe it's time for me, once again, to go for a walk down memory lane.
lj
Drop the 'maybe'. See you all in a while.
I'm back, having received a flash of insight from the January muse (a K.I.S.S. from callmate). If one disregards the prior day's RTH high violation by ES, not YM, as OE week games, then what is left with is to decide whether the opening IBGS 'counts' as rising red volume. If it does then Gregor is correct. It is important to appreciate that the position of the opening bar today generates a black IBGS simply because of where it is in relation to the 16:15 closing bar. If you mentally drag it down far enough then it indeed becomes a rising red bar (dragging it up won't 'change' its color).
This would say further that yesterday's 15:25 bar was the 'real' P2 and not as I suggested a faux P2. Clearly Gregor thought it was a 'real' P2 and he has his reasons for thinking that.
Aside from the fact that this P2 occurred INSIDE the blue uptraverse (one could get around that by drawing some other traverse line but yesterday I don't think such a procedure was valid) I thought it was a faux P2 because it was a "P"-type bar which had occurred prior to sequence completion. When this happens we have a pace acceleration (one of the 2 types, IMO) and NOT a peak volume signal for change which ONLY occurs after sequence completion. The change signal generated yesterday at 15:00 was a peak volume signal. So what I was anticipating was a rise and fall of price to give a 'real' P2 this AM. Now in fact I can show that this could have happened with the following logic.
Spyder has repeatedly said that the first bar of the day is nondom. Period. If that is so, then is the second bar of rising red volume sufficient to both re-establish red dominance AND generate a valid P3 or do we need another bar of rising red volume? If we do then we don't got it. If we don't need that second bar, then as I say Gregor is correct.
Now, if we do need a second bar, then where I see that happening is with the 10:55 and 11:00 bars. The P2 is outside the new blue traverse RTL which we can draw now because we are following the gap up. We then zip down a tape to the peak volume change signal at 11:55 and move into a boring, choppy, nasty (except for slalom bunnies) noontime lateral.
The "P" bar stuff, as we know, Spyder ditched but he did use it for quite a while so I know it has utility. I still haven't quite figured out the next step in the exercise but maybe romanus has.
lj
So, FWIW, IMO, once the deekout high is removed from consideration, then the "real P2" is at 10:15 and the rest of the day is quite straightforward. The 16:00 bar showed completion and a change signal, so I think we are at the start of a new uptraverse in a new uptrend. The RTL passes through the 15:40 bar which indicates that the P2 of the new uptrend has yet to be made. My reference for these statements is Jack's "golden triangle" diagram which I have mentioned before. It is really useful and here's a link to it. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2144884#post2144884