Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
I hear what you are saying palinuro. I've thought about doing that myself but haven't taken the plunge. Clearly, using the 24 hr Globex, as described by the CME, gets around the gap crap at the 9:30 open.
What has held me back is the other point I was trying to make having to do with the fact that ONLY between 9:30 AM and 4:00 PM EST are the futures and the cash in play simultaneously. It's obvious that the STR-SQU indicator cannot be used outside these hours but other than that I don't see any of the remaining JH/ST (Jack Hershey/Spydertrader) armamentarium that is removed from play. There is however the volume thingy.
We both know that the volume drops way off after the close of the US market and then picks up again when the Asian markets, in particular Tokyo, and the Brit/European markets open for business. Before switching to the Hershey method in the late fall of 2007, I used to trade, with a bare modicum of success, big betas, mostly GOOG.
I spent a lot of time looking at the shennanigans in the overnight and premarkets and my observation, over a couple of years, was this. The US equity markets, 'surprises' aside, start to pick up the volume around 7 AM EST and then even more so around 8 AM EST. Depending on what sort of economic data is released in the premarket, there can be surges of variable intensity leading up to the open at 9:30 AM EST.
Is this your experience, roughly speaking, with the ES? If so, do you think that 7 AM or 8 AM is a good time to start 'annotating the charts Hershey-style', or would you feel obliged to incorporate the price action from the Globex open at 4:30 PM EST the day before? My bias would be to start at 7 AM but I don't know.
Any thoughts? Also anyone else with any thoughts?
TIA
lj
Quote from romanus:
Pre-Flight Check. Been struggling with it for a while now. Seems like it should be something relatively uncomplicated, sort of rules of thumb they have in high school physics electricity course. But I must have really dumbed down since then, or solution exists which has not been mentioned in these threads and presumed to have been understood by everybody. Sort of like if1/if2 solution - Mak claimed to make money with it and DOM consistently. To me it has been chop experience every time I attempted it.
IMHO, pre-flight check or if1if2 were never intended to be something fundamental, they are just techniques, same as peak value, pace change, or even internals...
for new trader like me. the RULEs are
1. increasing/decreasing volume = continue/change in price action
2. channel: 1 and 2 and 3, then ftt
nothing more.
IMHO, the pfc is way more than a technique... It is absolutely essential in understanding sequences and WMCN...sequences play out from 9:30 to 4:15 est(NOT 4:00) every single day.If you know where you are at 4:15, then you will know where you are at 9:30 the next day...write down where you are at(sequence wise) at 4:15 everyday...BE wrong at 9:30 everyday...DO (A)nalyze why you were wrong everyday...HAVE the creativity to figure out what " returns to dominance" means...
Looking forward to meeting all that are going to the expo this weekend...
Try to use IF1/IF2,APA only when the Price is at RTL or LTL not when HOLD action is requiredQuote from romanus:
Pre-Flight Check. Been struggling with it for a while now. Seems like it should be something relatively uncomplicated, sort of rules of thumb they have in high school physics electricity course. But I must have really dumbed down since then
Mr. Black. Indeed you can never be accused of bland recitations of perceived dogma. You very frequently have something new and intriguing to say and sometimes I agree with you and sometimes I don't. It is the discussion that counts, IMO.
One of my greatest difficulties in moving out of the CW tarpit was getting over the idea that when the market has decided to change direction one is not correcting a 'wrong' when you reverse but rather doing what the market says needs be done.
If you are trading 'off the bar' as opposed to intrabar you may find yourself zigging when you should be zagging and thus need to reverse. That's all I see the IF1/2//APA protocol to be and I think it is distinct from doing an edge (RTL/LTL) reversal which should be directed by a tape break for the non-expert trader. The expert and meta-expert trader will of course be carving the turn, at or before the turn, but I haven't seen one of those critters around here for a while.
How one defines what a 'tape break' is, is something open to both interpretation and comfort level. I like what WGTrader has constructed although because it has empirical components I have modified (and continue to modify) what my definition of a 'tape break' is.
FWIW, I increasingly find Jack's dictum of annotating from the finest level upwards to be more and more appealing and rewarding.
lj