Iterative Refinement

[romanus]

Quote from innersky:

chart.

Can someone explain why the 10:35 bar (decr red volume but closes lower than previous bar) and the 10:45 (incr red volume but close inside previous bar) aren't change (jokari)?

--
thanks

innersky

IMO, both bars are Ve's. We still need the price to fail to reach the trendline to have an FTT, and since Ve cannot be an FTT by definition, i think one needs to watch the next bar and since it made another VE in both cases... Of course I could be wrong because I went ahead and started from the beginning of the Fut thread and my brain is still trying to forget what I know

 

[FilterTip]

Quote from innersky:

chart.

Can someone explain why the 10:35 bar (decr red volume but closes lower than previous bar) and the 10:45 (incr red volume but close inside previous bar) aren't change (jokari)?

--
thanks

innersky

What does the YM say at those times..?!
Also concider WMCN following those JW changes.
HTH

 

[romanus]

Quote from FilterTip:

What does the YM say at those times..?!
HTH

That's a good one. Ym was on it's way to p2. 1030 looks like p1 down and doesn't fit the p3 down - the gaussians said b\/b at 1020 and r\/b at 1028 - don't think these types of seq can be found in p2 to p3 movements.

 

[FilterTip]

Quote from romanus:

That's a good one. Ym was on it's way to p2. 1030 looks like p1 down and doesn't fit the p3 down - the gaussians said b\/b at 1020 and r\/b at 1028 - don't think these types of seq can be found in p2 to p3 movements.

Attached is YM 2 min chart covering that period.
It's the only explination I found at the time for the same questions innersky asked.
After all it is what the market did !
Just trying to offer some help.

thx

 

[romanus]

Quote from FilterTip:

Attached is YM 2 min chart covering that period.
It's the only explination I found at the time for the same questions innersky asked.
After all it is what the market did !
Just trying to offer some help.

thx

You may have misunderstood - I agree with your assessment.

Only your orange pt3 down in the snip doesn't feel right to me, but it's hardly relevant.

 

[ticktrade]

re: 1035 and 1040 bars

my take

1025-1030 create an acceleration tape. need decel-accel before considering to look for change.

1035 is in the accel tape
1040 starts the decel tape.

1035 and 1040 create the r2r which means we should be near p2, but haven't reached it yet.

not your normal decel tape

 

[innersky]

Thanks everyone for replying, but I can't help but keep on thinking that it cannot be so complicated.

Maybe it's just a chubby tape?

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innersky

 

[dkm]

Quote from innersky:

.... I can't help but keep on thinking that it cannot be so complicated.

Maybe it's just a chubby tape?

--
innersky

I think that perhaps the "simple" answer is that we had not yet formed a p2 at 10:35 or 10:45. The required "decr to incr red" occurs 10:35 and 10:40, after which we get LL's until the p2 at 11:00. I tend to agree that 10:30 to 11:00 is a chubby tape. I may be wrong......

 

[innersky]

I thought that incr red after a retrace was enough to get the pt3 confirmed?

Do we first need decr red?

--
innersky

 

[Gregor_S]

@innersky

I’m currently monitoring only ES 5 min chart, for a better understanding of WMCN – so I did not see what was happening on YM.

As I saw it, the area between 10h and 11h was a down traverse starting at 10h, forming a pt3 at 10.20 and then creating VE as time moved on. The bar at 10.35 was a lower low on higher V (and a VE), so for me it was a sign for continuation down, with no indication of change yet (even though the price closed inside the previous bar). Now if it would have been an IBGS closing above open, then I would be monitoring PRV and price on the next bar anticipating change.