Iterative Refinement

[palinuro]

Quote from ljyoung:

Thanks for the feedback palinuro. A couple of questions if you don't mind. I see 2 pink lines on the left of the chart. The top one would correspond to my 'monster' traverse (which I originally had annotated as a red down channel), while the bottom one corresponds to the 'old' traverse. If that is so, P2 for the blue up traverse can't be inside the boundaries of the 'monster' traverse. My 'orange' channel monitoring would correspond to what you have for your red down channel.

I don't understand what you mean by, "Re pt 2, I think pt 1 would be the FTT of the down channel .... pt 2 to come." Could you explain please.

It's kind of interesting if what we are going to see is the start of a new up channel, as opposed to the 'green up channel now' case (which is what I had originally), which would have us going up to complete the last up traverse of the green channel and then moving down. Seasonality fits with the 'orange' channel scenario, IMO.

lj

Really I was just trying to follow the gaussians as literally as possible - perhaps too literally - and let the channels fall where they may.

Yes, the shallower pink traverse corresponds to your original 'monster' channel. My argument ( to myself) re the placement of the blue p2 was, (1) that the steeper pink traverse was not FFT, but an accelerated traverse, and thus the 'old' one was vestigial, and (2), an overnight effect. But both of those may be specious.

Unfortunately, when it comes to the big picture I can easily imagine alternate views, though the channels that look the best to me don't match the gaussians as well. (For example, the blue up traverse pt 3 being at 12:10, with a new down traverse just getting under way.) I've been having a number of days of considerable clarity lately, but this isn't one of them...

- palinuro

 

[gooch87]

my morning

 

[ehorn]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Whatever fractal one chooses to trade develops in a very specific way. As such, all examples of a given trading resolution develop in the exact same fashion. If a trader canot see the previous statement as true, accurate and without exception, then I'd encourage said trader to redefine that which they believe they already know....

- Spydertrader

Thanks Spyder, it's back to the drawing board for me to try to find what I continue to miss.

 

[ljyoung]

Quote from ehorn:

Thanks Spyder, it's back to the drawing board for me to try to find what I continue to miss.

Me too ehorn. Last night I did the BTTDB thing and in particular went to the area we were discussing a few days ago, e.g., 9:55 AM on 12-18. That was NOT a P1 for an up traverse but yet another damnable fast fractal Frankenstein. We were nondom at EOD and stayed nondom at 9:55.

Your further comments about more than 4 fractals I initially thought were overkill but I think now that you are correct in the sense that we can have these 'fat tapes' inside a fast fractal and thereby generate more than 4 fractals. The area between 9:55 and 13:20 on 12-18 illustrates that.

This AM there's lots of airspace till the LTL of the new, improved red channel and I must admit that where I was watching when we broke below 873.50, was the YM, to see if it had made a new low, which it did.

Like you have been doing all along, I continue to work at becoming proficient enough to just use 5 min ES and although I feel like I'm close to that endpoint, I'm not quite there yet. I continue to believe that the Gaussians are confirmatory (falling dominos kind of thing) but when we have to deal with this "fractals that are faster than traverses but slower than tapes" stuff, the Gaussians are crucial.

lj

 

[gooch87]

I did a little housekeeping by changing my big red down channel and various tapes.

 

[romanus]

Seems like there was change @ 1140 on 5 min ES level fractal.

 

[romanus]

I have a strange feeling, that now we are suppose to proceed up to the pink down channel RTL to establish p2 up. Probably a wishful thinking.

 

[ljyoung]

Quote from romanus:

I have a strange feeling, that now we are suppose to proceed up to the pink down channel RTL to establish p2 up. Probably a wishful thinking.

Iff 'P1 up' is correct.

lj

 

[romanus]

Quote from ljyoung:

Iff 'P1 up' is correct.

lj

Yeah, I know. I thought since p2 up was inside the down traverse, the up trend was suppose to accelerate. Instead, I get this crap. I am sure there's a perfectly good explanation for what is going on right now - I just don't have it.

 

[ljyoung]

Quote from romanus:

Yeah, I know. I thought since p2 up was inside the down traverse, the up trend was suppose to accelerate. Instead, I get this crap. I am sure there's a perfectly good explanation for what is going on right now - I just don't have it.

I'll tell you romanus, I don't know how long this ff stuff has been around but I can't help but think it's the smart$ way of screwing with Hershey traders.

What the continuing downtrend says to me is that the BO from the FBP at 11:35 was nondom and was not confirmed by further IRV, just like the earlier BO from the FTP at 11:05. Now we just got "P'ed" on which tells me we've got more "post-P" downside.

lj

As I'm typing we're going down.