Iterative Refinement

Ok, so now you have a channel CO RTL. What does that say to you about where you are in the sequences?

Hint: We just went over this very example the last couple of days with Spydertrader's excellent drill.
 
We are making a B2B or another R2B of the super channel
I can't tell which yet so I am missing something. I know where I need to focus again.
 
Kindly allow me to clean up my mess. This has its origins in my attempt to correctly annotate the up channel which began last Friday (12-05). In the post below, of which I show a portion only, I thought I had the sucker nailed.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2214595#post2214595
If that is not correct then I must reexamine my assignments of 12-08 but dammit they work out beautifully with respect to anticipating exactly what went on this AM. There is a phenomenon in science called the fortuitous cancellation of errors whereby one gets a reproducible result based on a bunch of mistakes. We'll see.

In this post I’m still hanging on to a modified but still incorrect interpretation and to support it refer to a super-channel possibility: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2215342#post2215342
I agree re the FF stuff ehorn. I got stiffed this AM but if this is correct then things become clearer. From a clip entitled "Tapes, Traverses, Channels and One Super-channel" http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...nel#post2002423. Yea or Nay?

The “We’ll see.” is what Spyder refers to in this post. In other words my assessment of the channel specifics was wrong: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2215405#post2215405
You posted an incorrect PFC (day before yesterday, I believe) indicating a down traverse forming at EOD 12/08. Remove that from your mind. Now, morning of 12/08 the market places a Traverse Point Two at 9:45 (already discussed) with Point One occuring the previous day. Point Three of our Traverse arrives 10:30 / 10:35 - ish (having since deleted my annotations, so exact time difficult to provide without a complete redo).

In this post I recant the previous channel assessment and the super-channel idea and say why:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2215523#post2215523
Thanks Spyder that was definitely helpful. I actually had the early part of 12-08 as you said but where I was getting screwed around was deciding where to place the RTL of the channel. So if the up traverse which began at 14:00 on 12-08 did not finish until 11:05 on 12-09, then the RTL of the channel will have a P3 at 10:00 on 12-09. The remainder of the time from then till close today will reflect a down-up-down traverse with what looks tentatively to be a 'breakout' up traverse of the fast fractal type forming EOD 12-10.

What was driving me nuts was the 'penultimate lowest low' before the highest high requirement for a TL but clearly that must be tempered by things like down gaps and fast fractals.

The other thing is that when a fast fractal is in play one can get "pseudo-VE's" which can make the decision about traverse vs channel more complicated. That's what I was messing about with today and do realize that correctly annotated Gaussians will eliminate that uncertainty.

I can post the beast but I think it would do more harm than good, so I have painlessly dispatched it. Suffice it to say there was NO super-channel today.

Thank you again for your help. You will be sorely missed when you leave.

One of the problems that a student of this method has is creating confusion in their search for understanding the method. The super-channel hypothesis is an example and as I've said the answer, for me, lies with the Gaussians. So again THERE WAS NO FREAKIN' SUPER-CHANNEL YESTERDAY. It is rare for a super-channel to be formed in a single day if only because it is made up of three channels, which, as always, show a down-up-down or up-down-up pattern. So yesterday was a short channel composed of three traverses (down-up-down) and today we began the first leg of a new up channel with, what else, an up traverse. As I finish writing this, I notice that we are in the process of piercing that CHANNEL RTL formed yesterday and refer you to the discussion above with gooch and avi8.

lj
 
Quote from ljyoung:

Kindly allow me to clean up my mess. This has its origins in my attempt to correctly annotate the up channel which began last Friday (12-05). In the post below, of which I show a portion only, I thought I had the sucker nailed.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2214595#post2214595
If that is not correct then I must reexamine my assignments of 12-08 but dammit they work out beautifully with respect to anticipating exactly what went on this AM. There is a phenomenon in science called the fortuitous cancellation of errors whereby one gets a reproducible result based on a bunch of mistakes. We'll see.

In this post I’m still hanging on to a modified but still incorrect interpretation and to support it refer to a super-channel possibility: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2215342#post2215342
I agree re the FF stuff ehorn. I got stiffed this AM but if this is correct then things become clearer. From a clip entitled "Tapes, Traverses, Channels and One Super-channel" http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...nel#post2002423. Yea or Nay?

The “We’ll see.” is what Spyder refers to in this post. In other words my assessment of the channel specifics was wrong: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2215405#post2215405
You posted an incorrect PFC (day before yesterday, I believe) indicating a down traverse forming at EOD 12/08. Remove that from your mind. Now, morning of 12/08 the market places a Traverse Point Two at 9:45 (already discussed) with Point One occuring the previous day. Point Three of our Traverse arrives 10:30 / 10:35 - ish (having since deleted my annotations, so exact time difficult to provide without a complete redo).

In this post I recant the previous channel assessment and the super-channel idea and say why:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2215523#post2215523
Thanks Spyder that was definitely helpful. I actually had the early part of 12-08 as you said but where I was getting screwed around was deciding where to place the RTL of the channel. So if the up traverse which began at 14:00 on 12-08 did not finish until 11:05 on 12-09, then the RTL of the channel will have a P3 at 10:00 on 12-09. The remainder of the time from then till close today will reflect a down-up-down traverse with what looks tentatively to be a 'breakout' up traverse of the fast fractal type forming EOD 12-10.

What was driving me nuts was the 'penultimate lowest low' before the highest high requirement for a TL but clearly that must be tempered by things like down gaps and fast fractals.

The other thing is that when a fast fractal is in play one can get "pseudo-VE's" which can make the decision about traverse vs channel more complicated. That's what I was messing about with today and do realize that correctly annotated Gaussians will eliminate that uncertainty.

I can post the beast but I think it would do more harm than good, so I have painlessly dispatched it. Suffice it to say there was NO super-channel today.

Thank you again for your help. You will be sorely missed when you leave.

One of the problems that a student of this method has is creating confusion in their search for understanding the method. The super-channel hypothesis is an example and as I've said the answer, for me, lies with the Gaussians. So again THERE WAS NO FREAKIN' SUPER-CHANNEL YESTERDAY. It is rare for a super-channel to be formed in a single day if only because it is made up of three channels, which, as always, show a down-up-down or up-down-up pattern. So yesterday was a short channel composed of three traverses (down-up-down) and today we began the first leg of a new up channel with, what else, an up traverse. As I finish writing this, I notice that we are in the process of piercing that CHANNEL RTL formed yesterday and refer you to the discussion above with gooch and avi8.

lj
More...

I guess, this is supposed to be much simpler now.:) Meanwhile the thorough and unambiguous definitions of tapes and traverses are deemed unimportant... And those build channels...
 
Quote from gucci:

I guess, it is supposed to be much simpler now.:)
More...

If I briefly reflect on my antics of the past several days I would say that I have suffered and recovered from a nasty little cut from Occam's razor {= if your explanation is too complicated then it is, with high probability, wrong}. So if 'it' refers to my understanding of what went on, it is indeed much simpler. Is my present understanding really what went on? I hope so, but if it isn't, I also hope that someone will say, 'Hey lj you screwed up here or you screwed up there' and afford me the opportunity to learn again.

As someone once said, 'This stuff is simple but it's not easy' and I would agree with that.

At this time let me also welcome back the Bulgarian bandito, the inestimable Mr. Black.

lj
 
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