Iterative Refinement

[romanus]

Quote from romanus:

Personally, I was ready to label 1350 bar as Point 1 up and signal for change in down traverse. The only thing that stopped me from doing that is significant decrease in overall pace beginning with 1230.

Spydertrader mentioned that "during periods of depressed pace the market often provides signals which appear to represent two different paths or two different 'views' to the market"

I could not tell for certain if what I was seeing are sub-fractal movements (or 'faster fractal' traverses) or 5 min ES level traverse. Coupled with the PA 1225 and the fact that 1230 to 1400 could have been one long non-dominant movement in a down traverse - real time clarity escaped me in this occasion.

Increasing volume on the black 1305 bar is what prevents 1310 being point 3 down. And since I see no reason not to consider 1225 as point 2 down, IBV on 1305 bar may indicate that a faster fractal up traverse is underway, with p2 of the ff up traverse being 1305 bar.

EDIT: Anybody who is tired of reading my "thinking out loud" and brain farts, feel free to put me on ignore.

 

[innersky]

Question about the bar marked with the blue arrow (15:3.5)
It's an ibgs down, so should one change to short at this point (and go back long when the high is broken on the next bar)

I saw it as a point of change, but maybe I'm missing something here?

thanks,

innersky

 

[romanus]

Quote from innersky:

Question about the bar marked with the blue arrow (15:3.5)
It's an ibgs down, so should one change to short at this point (and go back long when the high is broken on the next bar)

I saw it as a point of change, but maybe I'm missing something here?

thanks,

innersky

1530 is a PA. After PA one expects a step down in pace and resumption of increase of dominant volume. So, IMO, since the mini-sequence which started with 1530 PA is not over, one can't be looking for a signal for change.

 

[charts]

Quote from romanus:

1530 is a PA. After PA one expects a step down in pace and resumption of increase of dominant volume. So, IMO, since the mini-sequence which started with 1530 PA is not over, one can't be looking for a signal for change.

... what's your definition of PA?

 

[ljyoung]

Quote from romanus:

That's the part that is not clear to me. A 'Pre-Flight' Check represents nothing more than Monitoring - except in this case - it occurs prior to the opening bar. In other words, the trader contantly does a 'Pre-Flight' Check for bars which in the now sit somewhere in the near future. Nothing is different - except for the time of day in which one performs the action.

I interpret this as: If one does the 'M' part correctly, then one knows what comes next. So the same applies to what comes next tomorrow - no room for wiggling. Binary.

However, Each day (during the period of time when the Markets 'sync') a trader needs to determine if the market is finishing what began the day before, or if the market is building something new for the current day. - this comment does not sound binary to me. Of course I may be misinterpreting, that's why I asked for clarification.

Thank you for responding, lj.

Maybe what Spyder is talking about is a channel??? Today we finished with the up channel and barely started to build a down channel. Tomorrow during sync we have to begin to finish what we started today, which is to build a down channel. We can't start to build an up channel till we finished the down channel, so perhaps in the 'channel sense', it is binary.

I don't think one can have a 'partially-finished' down channel, bag it, and then start a new up channel. That would violate Jack's null hypothesis, which is, I believe, that markets don't 'jump' around.

If this is right, then in order for the market to start building something new for the current day during sync, it would have to complete a channel sequence during sync and start a new channel right away.

Thank you for posing the question, Romanus.

lj

 

[innersky]

Quote from romanus:

1530 is a PA. After PA one expects a step down in pace and resumption of increase of dominant volume. So, IMO, since the mini-sequence which started with 1530 PA is not over, one can't be looking for a signal for change.

Great, thanks!

--
innersky

 

[Neoxx]

Quote from romanus:

1530 is a PA. After PA one expects a step down in pace and resumption of increase of dominant volume. So, IMO, since the mini-sequence which started with 1530 PA is not over, one can't be looking for a signal for change.

I'm glad you have a logical, technical reason for that not being an SOC. My sole justification was that it didn't feel as though the traverse was ready to end...

 

[romanus]

Quote from charts:

... what's your definition of PA?

I gave up the quest of searching for rigorous definitions after reading this post:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1659482#post1659482

BlowFish


Registered: Aug 2006
Posts: 221


10-30-07 10:09 AM

Quote from Dantheman:

start reading the journal from the beginning (actually, procrast made it

this is all my opinion of course.



At some time or other I have read every post by Jack (and the family of pseudonyms) at least twice probably more. I have read Spyders Journals once though to be honest skipped a lot of the stock stuff. There are tens of thousands of page possibly hundreds of thousands, I am loath to read them all again to find this one specific thing. As I said forgive me if I have overlooked something. I have not reviewed all the Tuscon videos in sequence (I have watched them piecemeal) I am doing that right now. What I am trying to say is this isn't just some lazy arse question I draw channels and annotate charts day in day out and have done for many years, that can be done asleep. I understand what a FTT is conceptually. I know when & how I draw them, I am not sure it is correct.

I wonder if you understand the question? Forgive me if I have not been clear. I can re-phrase it if you like. Do you know the answer? (and more to the point whether it is actually held where you have directed me). It is a very specific question. It would help me out to get a definitive answer from someone that knows. I'd certainly be very greatful. I know I could re-read all the posts along with all the noise and flames looking for an answer but really that seems a fairly inefficient and counter productive way to do it. Just to repeat this isn't out of laziness I have looked, and not found, the specific information I am searching for. (I can be pretty myopic sometimes so it may well be a failing of my perception skills). For example I have re-read every single post on ET that contains the search term FTT (2460 posts) and have either some how missed or just as likely failed to grasp this.

I think we all know what a FTT actually is its a pretty fundamental and important concept. Knowing what something is and having a rigorous definition is quite different.

Cheers.

 

[romanus]

Quote from Neoxx:

I'm glad you have a logical, technical reason for that not being an SOC. My sole justification was that it didn't feel as though the traverse was ready to end...

Your's is actually better.

 

[ljyoung]

I think you are wrong Romanus. Pace acceleration requires 3 bars just like peak volume. If you pull up any of Spyder's charts and look at where the "P" is, it ALWAYS after a bar which has showed an increase of the Gaussian slope compared to the bar prior to it. In turn the third bar in the sequence must also show an increase in the Gaussian slope compared to the second bar.

The question of when a PA bar is a PkV bar has still not been resolved (maybe it's when a PA bar finishes off a channel - I don't know) but what I do know is that a pace acceleration does not happen after just 2 bars. For fun, I'll bet no-one can find a case where the big "P" comes after a bar which DOESN'T have one of those little 'up' arrows.

lj