Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Here are some posts on the subject:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2037313&highlight=pace#post2037313
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2019815&highlight=pace#post2019815
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2017732&highlight=pace#post2017732
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2005172&highlight=pace#post2005172
I am afraid I can't help you here - 'why' is a one of those existential questions that humanity is still struggling with.
Let's say, for example, the market ended today between p2 and p3 in the sequence. So tomorrow, either:
(a) it will definitely pick up where it has left in the sequence today - it will complete the down traverse and provide signal for change,
or,
(b) during the 'sync' we will have to determine if the market will finish what began today, or if the market is building something new.
So basically, it will or it won't and the 'sync' is suppose to provide the clues? Or, it definitely will finish and only then begin building something new?
Spyder, I wonder if you'd answer two quick questions:
1) I had to disregard the carryover traverse at one point, in order to get the chart to 'work'. Would you have labelled my first lateral retrace as a lateral traverse, and drawn a long traverse beginning at 11.25, creating a channel within the carryover channel?
2) The 2pm breakout bar. Was the preceding lower low on higher volume but reduced volatility an SOC? Was there anything else (from the ES chart) that could have given advance notice of the violent BO and failure of a new dominant?
Many thanks,
Neo
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2193101>
1) I had to disregard the carryover traverse at one point, in order to get the chart to 'work'. Would you have labelled my first lateral retrace as a lateral traverse, and drawn a long traverse beginning at 11.25, creating a channel within the carryover channel?
2) The 2pm breakout bar. Was the preceding lower low on higher volume but reduced volatility an SOC? Was there anything else (from the ES chart) that could have given advance notice of the violent BO and failure of a new dominant?
Many thanks,
Neo
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2193101>
Personally, I was ready to label 1350 bar as Point 1 up and signal for change in down traverse. The only thing that stopped me from doing that is significant decrease in overall pace beginning with 1230.
Spydertrader mentioned that "during periods of depressed pace the market often provides signals which appear to represent two different paths or two different 'views' to the market"
I could not tell for certain if what I was seeing are sub-fractal movements (or 'faster fractal' traverses) or 5 min ES level traverse. Coupled with the PA 1225 and the fact that 1230 to 1400 could have been one long non-dominant movement in a down traverse - real time clarity escaped me in this occasion.
Spydertrader mentioned that "during periods of depressed pace the market often provides signals which appear to represent two different paths or two different 'views' to the market"
I could not tell for certain if what I was seeing are sub-fractal movements (or 'faster fractal' traverses) or 5 min ES level traverse. Coupled with the PA 1225 and the fact that 1230 to 1400 could have been one long non-dominant movement in a down traverse - real time clarity escaped me in this occasion.
If I'm parsing Spyder's response http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2187754#post2187754 to my question, which is similar to what you are asking, Romanus, I think the answer is that there has to be a context which will allow the market to do what it said it was going to do.
So for example today, if I've annotated correctly (that would be a welcome change), we have completed an up-down-up-sequence complete-Change-P1 to apparent P2 portion of the first down traverse segment thingy. IMO, we HAVE to complete this down traverse before we can do anything else, like start an up or lateral traverse.
As an aside, I think the 15:45 bar today was a peak volume bar.
lj
That's the part that is not clear to me. A 'Pre-Flight' Check represents nothing more than Monitoring - except in this case - it occurs prior to the opening bar. In other words, the trader contantly does a 'Pre-Flight' Check for bars which in the now sit somewhere in the near future. Nothing is different - except for the time of day in which one performs the action.
I interpret this as: If one does the 'M' part correctly, then one knows what comes next. So the same applies to what comes next tomorrow - no room for wiggling. Binary.
However, Each day (during the period of time when the Markets 'sync') a trader needs to determine if the market is finishing what began the day before, or if the market is building something new for the current day. - this comment does not sound binary to me. Of course I may be misinterpreting, that's why I asked for clarification.
Thank you for responding, lj.