Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
I will add "Lack of 'continuation" to my list of "Traverse Level Signals of Change", but it will apply to a whole bunch of scenarios.
A traverse cannot meet conditions for change until it has completed two Volume cycles for every one Price cycle. This seems to match my theory that we had "Non Dom" from 13:05 to 15:20 and as such the traverse had not completed. However, since you failed to validate my thesis it appears this was incorrect.
I share DKM's confusion on the 15:35 bar and beyond. Although I don't see a valid Price cycle starting at 15:15, the market felt it had completed a traverse at 15:45. I have failed to recognize the differences in this situation as well.
Lastly, it has been common place to place laterals in places of transition. Quite frequently we have a lateral form at the end of a traverse, especially as ticktrade indicated when Pace Acceleration has appeared.
Yesterday was a difficult day, but with Spyder's comments, it moves past difficult and into, "I had no clue what was going on virtually the entire day" realm. Looks like yet another "rebuilding" effort must take place.
The market has signaled that the trader does not yet have permission to seek a change in mode.
- Spydertrader
Not likely. You already use this binary decision making process by default. If the market isn't in one mode it must be in the other. Once a sequence completes, the market has given the trader permission to seek a change in mode.
If the market did not continue, what other possible descriptor is there other than change under a binary system?
You often paint things with a very broad brush failing to notice the subtle differences which create the differences in context. In other words, the market produced dominant bars within the 13:05 to 15:20 time frame, so something else must be the cause of the market signaling an incomplete sequence.
Then I encourage you and dkm to look again, as the information exists within this very thread (and others) and several documents. The market also repeated the signal several times throughout the day (and does so every day).
If, as I stated previously, Pace Acceleration develops prior to the completion of a Traverse, please explain the logic behind how 'pace Accleration can create a Lateral "at the end of a Traverse."
Again, as I replied to you previously, even with the Lateral in place, one thing is dominant entering the lateral and another is dominant exiting the lateral. Clearly a change has occurred - not because I say so, but because the market says so.
You missed a few things, which resulted in more than a few errors. No need to demolish the entire structure and rebuild. Locate what you missed (I've already provided instructions how) and move forward from there.
(All times Eastern and [close of] ES Bars)
- Spydertrader
You make some excellent points gman.
Several weeks ago there was a discussion about traverse level signals for change http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113310&perpage=6&pagenumber=1339 in which Spyder said to Romanus, 'Is the signal you see one of the five which an ES 5 minute Traverse level trader uses for change?' He responded, as did charts and R/R shortly thereafter (the next page in the journal=1340)."
Romanus' list of five:http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2097424#post2097424
....
1. Jokari Window
2. Peak Volume
3. RTL BO on increased volume
4. Pennant/Formation BO on increased volume (not sure if that one's included)
5. LTL bounce on increased volume (not sure if that one's included)
Charts' addition:
...
4. Pennant/Formation BO on increased volume (not sure if that one's included)
...
BO+FBO, volume may come later
R/R comment:
Romanus: you said .... Also please note that when Spyder discussed three examples of 5 minute ES Traverse level change signals on 7-24-08, he included "Pennant Break Out FBO". I see from your link where he more recently said those [change] signals do not include formation FBO's.
Clearly Pennants are a subset of Formations so there is some confusion here.
My list was posted several days later:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2101471&highlight=traverse#post2101471;
1. JW Type I â 3 bar Jokari
2. JW Type II â â2 barâ Jokari
3. Peak Volume
4. Pennant BO FBO
5. Bar 5 as described immediately above (this entity was what I called 'the bar with no name' and it is discussed in the link).
I would amend the list as of today to read as follows:
1. JW Type I â 3 bar Jokari and JW Type II â â2 barâ Jokari
2. Peak Volume
3. Pennant BO FBO
4. The bar with no name
5. IBGS (may apply on other fractals as well)
5*. No Continuation (may apply on other fractals as well)
What is your list? It would seem to me that the members of this thread, Spyder aside since he already has his list of five, should be able to come up with a list upon which they can agree.
Your other point about "What makes a traverse, a traverse" is something, IMO, which is still not settled in the minds of most of the contributors to this thread. Yes I know that tapes make traverses, as does everybody else, but it is the termination of one traverse and the beginning of another traverse that I think gives most people problems. Where things get messy is when intrafractal movements (IFM) appear and dealing with these is non-trivial. You will remember that pointone bailed a few months ago because of the IFM condition. Pointone did not suffer from any paucity of multisynaptic connections.
The 5 min ES trader is a specific type of Hershey trader governed by constraints which in the world of real money trading may be difficult to adhere to, especially at times like these. There are variants of the Hershey trader which use their understanding of the method to trade differently than a rigorous traverse trader and more power to them. However if we are going to pursue the 5 min ES thingy then I think it is necessary that we know WTF a traverse is.
We need to formulate a clear definition of a tape and a traverse. Again I know that a tape has been set as being composed of 2 bars and a chubby tape composed of 3 bars but there are tapes which are longer than 2 bars or 3 bars. When does this long or extended tape stop being a tape and become a traverse movement? Would you agree that a traverse is composed of 3 traverse movements - an up-down-up series (LONG) and a down-up-down series (SHORT)? Does each traverse movement have a 1,2,3 sequence? At what point does an IFM come in to being? Does each IFM have a 1,2,3 sequence? At what point does a channel come in to being?
I have some ideas and would like to hear what you or anybody else has to say. Thanks for your input.
lj