Iterative Refinement

[teguichilla]

So far..

 

[teguichilla]

Final for the day.

 

[Spydertrader]

Today's ES

 

[PTVtrader]

Spyder,

I'm having trouble understanding your red horizontal tape traverse that starts at 14:50. I thought the non dom sequence did complete on the 14:50 bar but when inc black appeared on the 15:05 bar, I started to think that I was wrong and that we were in an up traverse point 2 which would then head to pt 3(which would still put me on the right side of the market ) but under the wrong mindset. Any additional insight or do I just have to trust the sequences even though in this case there was no optimal entry for a beginner traverse trader.Also, based on your annotations, my preflight will be signifcantly different.

 

[guavaman]

I find myself in agreement with ticktrade regarding the lack "dominant" on the first down traverse starting at 10:30. The following is my play by play:

10:30 Inside bar = Non Dom
:35 BO Pennat w/ DRV = Non Dom
:40 Inside bar = Non Dom
:45 Lateral FBO w/ DBV = Non Dom
:50 Lateral FBO = Non Dom
:55 1st Lateral BO bar = Non Dom
11:00 Lateral BO w/ DRV = Non Dom (and confirms :55 bar as Non Dom)
:05 to ::20 Lateral Movement/ Formation bars = Non Dom
:25 1st bar BO of LM/LF = Non Dom
:30 to :45 LM/LF = Non Dom
:50 1st BO of LM = Non Dom (initially)
:55 2nd BO of LM w/ IRV = Dom (and confirms :50 bar now as Dom).

As a result of my annotations, true Pt1 is either at 11:45 or 11:50 of the down traverse w/ 12:05 as Pt2 and 12:45 as Pt3. The traverse ends at 13:00 due to PV (having two consecutive closes outside LM w/ IRV).

I see Spyder contained all the IRV from 10:30 to 11:25 with two separate (fanned out) Pt3 traverses and a third one using the 11:45 bar as his Pt3 of a another fanned out traverse that made the 11:45 to 12:00 the last leg of this third down traverse.

Thankfully we both ended up at the same place and saw the 13:00 as the real signal of change. No doubt by virtue of his superior knowledge and trading skill set, he annotated his chart correctly.

My question is was I simply lucky to have arrived at the place I did (13:00 SOC) having incorrectly analyzed and annotated my chart or did we just choose different but equally valid routes to the SOC.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ticktrade:

I find this to be a useful statement but have a question.
Quite often we find ourselves in a lateral shortly after pt2. Why does that lateral not end on Pt3 since it's purpose was the move from 2-3. A return to dominance would appear quicker and we could look for a signal for change.

For those who use Medium and Fine level Toolsets, Having a Lateral in place on a Coarse Tool (5 minute ES), provides the 'permission required' to view another tool (2 minute YM). As such, annotating a Lateral (even when the market stops moving Point Two to Point Three) alerts the trade to check elsewhere for their sufficent data set.

For those who only use a Coarse Toolset, having the Lateral in place teaches the trader to begin to learn to 'look inside' Laterals in an effort to differentiate Lateral Retraces from Lateral Traverses from Laterals which provide a 'change in dominance' (enter the lateral with one color volume dominant and exit the lateral with another color dominant).

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ticktrade:

Both of those are rtl bo's on increasing vol. it seems like a risky proposition to ignore them. I thought regardless of no, soc or return to dominance, we were to take those.

If a trader wishes to remain on a single trading resolution level throughout the trading day (and as a result, avoid 'jumping fractals' during periods of confusion), then one must wait until the market has completed its sequences before taking action.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from guavaman:

Can we stipulate from this point forward, that all referenced bars are henceforth and forever more considered "[close of]" and eliminate the cumbersome need to state it each time an ES bar is referenced?

Many people use charting software which sets the time by the bar open time, rather than as Trade Navigator Software does, use the Bar Close Time. However, I find it just as annoying to type it throughout my posts, as I see you do reading it. To that end, I'll add a sngle annotation at the end of each post, for those who might 'skip over' this policy change while reviewing these threads sometime in the future.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ticktrade:

chopped up thinking 1015 was soc. had inc vol ibgs than 2 jw bars follow that. how does one know which to take. In hindsight saw where the ym gave a signal for change. What if on the es only?

I encourage you to review IBGS Bars which you know provide signals for change, and compare those charts (along with their complete and thorough annotations) to the example at 10:15 today. I'm confident, you'll 'see' the difference, and arrive at the correct answer. After all, the market has already shown you that 10:15 isn't a signal for change. All that reamins is for you to locate the reason why.

Quote from ticktrade:

Don't see any dominant red on dn traverse??

You see increasing red Volume after a signal for change (10:30), therefore we know the dominant direction is down. However, we don't show any dominant bars until much later. Do you think the market has signaled continuation or change?

Quote from ticktrade:

Can we have a pt 3 without confirmation of dominance?
If one ended the 1035 lateral when the pt3 arrived at 1050 than dominance could be established. If not I dont understand the dn traverse.

Note how I keep 'fanning' out the Traverses drawn in place during the time in question. Note also the two different fractals I annotated on the Gaussians. If one trades the slower fractal, then one simple holds all the way down.

(All times Eastern and [close of] ES Bars)

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ticktrade:

Naturally as soon as I post clariy arrives. Red dominance appears and a dn channel has been formed.

In the absence of change, the market signals continuation.

- Spydertrader