Iterative Refinement

Quote from Spydertrader:

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Thank you for the charts. As always they are tremendously helpful.

:D A rather unusual retrace in a 3rd pink down traverse caused me to conclude in real time that permission to seek change existed on 14:10 [close of]. Pt2 was not where I thought it was.
 
Quote from dkm:

How does the increasing black vol at 13:50 help you conclude that the sequence is not complete at 14:35?
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Quote from romanus:

The 'crude' logic I am using here is as follows: (1) the market is in non-dom retrace of the down traverse, (2) there are only 3 cases where increasing non-dominant volume found when price is moving from pt2 to pt3, (3) 13:50 [close of] bar is not one of them. 1+2+3= therefore we have not reached pt3 at the end of this retrace.

It's not very elegant verbalization, but I notice this type of situation over and over again.

The ultimate answer lies, I believe, with how Gaussian lines track dominant vs non-dominant Price Movement.

Two posts I think may provide the final piece of the puzzle:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2087295#post2087295

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2105207#post2105207

I don't have the clear picture of an elegant rule here, but I am working on that.
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I don't know WTF is going on with these increasing black volume occurences, but look at today's 13:45 [close of] and look where permission to seek change exists 14:50 [close of]. No way this stuff is random!
 
Remember talk about how principles taught in the first equities journal may or may not fair in bad markets. So far this month using first journal techniques, haven't made a single trade.

Wondering if anyone else shared my experiences.
 
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