Iterative Refinement

[ljyoung]

Quote from romanus:

Would I be correct if I said that the only difference between Pace Acceleration and Peak Volume is where in a sequence it shows up. (assuming the Gaussian slope acceleration is present in both cases). In other words, if permission to seek change exists because of sequence completion, then it's Peak Volume. Otherwise it's a Pace Acceleration.

I agree with you Romanus: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113310&perpage=6&pagenumber=1342

lj

 

[ljyoung]

Quote from romanus:

Attached is my attempt to determine where and why the market would give permission to seek change.

Afraid my numerous attempts to offset increasing red volume with increasing black volume as market returns to dominance still did not let me arrive at the correct answer.

Only recently I started paying attention to how an appearance of increasing non-dominant volume ( such as red today) in a sequence affects the sequence completion. There's definitely more than initially meets the eye there, but I can't seem to figure out how to correctly apply the logic.

Any comments or examples of a thought process that goes into determining where one is in a sequence would be greatly appreciated.

This is very nice stuff Romanus and at first reading appears to be on the money. With respect to the red volume textual annotations, I would change 'increased' to 'increasing'.

I agree with you (and I see also guavaman says the same thing) that there was no TRAVERSE level signal for change today. So still black dominant and long.

lj

 

[ljyoung]

Quote from ticktrade:

This is how I saw today and I dont understand why some of them were not considered change or had permission to seek change. Things were going fine until I messed up the inc vol IBGS's in the afternoon. They didnt hurt as bad as ignoring a strong signal telling me I was on the wrong side.
I know it differs from what has been posted. A couple of the afternoon comments were from failed trade debriefing on the spot.

I think that as you say there are lots of signals for change but not on the TRAVERSE level, i.e., the change signals are for INTRAFRACTAL and TAPE movements.

While it has been a bit of a grinder (speaking just for myself) to stay on the 5 min ES as a TRAVERSE trader, all the time, the gain vastly outweighs the pain. The reason being that if things screw up, you can always get on the right side of the "TRAVERSE market", if you will. So for today, if a short 'flubbed', then one reverses and holds as opposed to exiting and taking a loss.

Cajones d'acero award for doing a real-time debrief on a real trade.

lj

 

[Avi 8]

Quote from ticktrade:

avi ...

guava had it called, 1335 - 1425 is a lateral traverse.

WMCN? What led up to this lateral traverse? An up traverse?

So we need what? Another up traverse.

Where is the pt3 up? 1525.

What happens then? More lateral movement, and contrary to what some have posted, it is not a pt 2 to pt3 move as there was no signal for change.

So WMCN? Again what is 1525 to EOD? A lateral TRAVERSE.

So if today were continuing, we expect what? Another UP traverse.

 

[Avi 8]

Quote from romanus:

Would I be correct if I said that the only difference between Pace Acceleration and Peak Volume is where in a sequence it shows up...

Nope

 

[ljyoung]

Quote from Avi 8:

Nope

Close, as in, what we (Romanus and I) have said is part of the difference?

lj

I know what he's going to say but I'll ask anyway.

 

[ticktrade]

Quote from Avi 8:

guava had it called, 1335 - 1425 is a lateral traverse.

WMCN? What led up to this lateral traverse? An up traverse?

So we need what? Another up traverse.

Where is the pt3 up? 1525.

What happens then? More lateral movement, and contrary to what some have posted, it is not a pt 2 to pt3 move as there was no signal for change.

So WMCN? Again what is 1525 to EOD? A lateral TRAVERSE.

So if today were continuing, we expect what? Another UP traverse.

Thanks guava and avi
Sometimes I get caught up in the sequences and trying to spot signs of change after sequence completes and miss those wmcn traverse situations. Havent had too much trouble lately. Hopefully I'll be able to remember this one. There was enough information to get back on the right side. Just a momentary lapse of reason.

 

[romanus]

Quote from guavaman:


13:35 to 14:20 was a lateral traverse.

Very well done! That certainly supports why my "black'n'red" count indicated no permission to seek change until 14:30. Gonna test my theory on some charts to see if I was actually correct or it was a lucky coincidence.

A very big personal thank you, guavaman!

 

[romanus]

Quote from Avi 8:

Nope

The other difference which I noticed is that Peak Volume has all of it's bars (components) belonging to dominant component - not a single bar of the three belongs to non-dominant component of traverse.

Is that it?

 

[ljyoung]

Quote from romanus:

Attached is my attempt to determine where and why the market would give permission to seek change.

Afraid my numerous attempts to offset increasing red volume with increasing black volume as market returns to dominance still did not let me arrive at the correct answer.

Only recently I started paying attention to how an appearance of increasing non-dominant volume ( such as red today) in a sequence affects the sequence completion. There's definitely more than initially meets the eye there, but I can't seem to figure out how to correctly apply the logic.

Any comments or examples of a thought process that goes into determining where one is in a sequence would be greatly appreciated.

I made some comments in your chart Romanus. In addition I believe that the 15:10 bar (not shown) is likewise a spike bar and although not an IBGS bar it does have a JW change signal, again NOT for the traverse trader.

I also will be doing some looking at previous charts to see if your red/black thingy holds up. Certainly from today it looks promising.
Congratulations (so far).

lj