Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Although price has been steadily moving upwards today, with the most recent intraday high having occurred at 13:40, if one looks at the 5 day 5 min ES, it seems pretty clear that we are, so far, in a retrace of the honking big channel (HBC) that began on 9-19-08.
I do not think this fact is without consequence in respect of understanding why that 11:35 down change signal was a dud. With respect to the HBC, we are in a nondominant up retrace.
Today, IMO, is a variation on a theme of 9-19-08.
lj
I do not think this fact is without consequence in respect of understanding why that 11:35 down change signal was a dud. With respect to the HBC, we are in a nondominant up retrace.
Today, IMO, is a variation on a theme of 9-19-08.
lj
At exactly 11:35 EST the Price moved in the non-dominant direction (after previously moving dominant) on increasing Volume creating Jokari window signal for change. The sequence for creating a Traverse was also completed at that time.
The signal for change results in one of the three possibilities - Flaw/Formation, Lateral, Non-dominant retrace (FTT, LTL bounce)
What happens after that bar is a Lateral.
What does the high of the day so far have anything to do with 1135 close of?
We either have a permission to seek change at 1135 or we don't. Period.
What does the market show prior to and including 1135 that would cause one to expect continuation on 5 min ES fractal?
Would you be so kind to tell me.
What?
What specifically about this particular context that would not give permission to seek change in mode and make it 1135 close of bar a continuation?
You really need to resist the urge to overcomplicate things.
Start with 10:20.
Tell me where you see the market begin, continue and end non-dominance.
Tell me where dominance returns.
Then tell me how 11:35 provided permission to seek a change in mode.
- Spydertrader
Oh, crap. I can't believe it's that easy. Sh*t. Of course, the only increasing black, that's not a result of Pennant/Formation/Lateral/EH BO comes only at 1130, which means at that point in time we're on our way to pt2.
Thanks Spydertrader. I don't know what is it about these 5 min bars when this type of stuff is just sitting there staring one in the face and yet some morons like yours truly just can't see it.
Thanks Spydertrader. I don't know what is it about these 5 min bars when this type of stuff is just sitting there staring one in the face and yet some morons like yours truly just can't see it.
What's really embarrassing is that the answer was given not once and not even twice:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2037313#post2037313
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2017149#post2017149
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2017084#post2017084
The theme I'm talking about is, "How does one draw the correct [= market-driven] lateral (movement/formation)?" The same problem appears to be occurring today that occurred on 9-19.
Today we have been in an intraday uptrend. 'Black' is dominant and I believe a nondominance began at 9:55 and continued until a point 3 up was achieved at 13:25 and confirmed at 13:30. This way of doing things puts the 11:35 bar inside a 2-3 lateral.
Apologies to all if I gave the impression that I was saying that the 11:35 'change signal' was valid. I wasn't and clearly it wasn't BUT if one drew the incorrect lateral because one didn't see what the market was telling one, then it could appear that it was valid. Hence my reference to 9-19.
Now the other stuff about the 5 day downtrend and nondom retrace of same is, I believe, valid. What Spyder appears to be saying is that this has nothing BY NECESSITY to do with what's going on intraday. In other words the price stuff that has happened today is not contingent on today being a nondom retrace of the HBC. So I will shut my piehole about that stuff.
So Spyder would I be correct in my assessment of your assessment of my apparent need to complicate? Would I also be correct that the 9-19 problem (and quite possibly problems at other times and days) stems from this ineptitude, which I am attempting to rectify, in placing the starting pole of the lateral (movement/formation) where the market 'says' it should be?
lj