Those focused exclusively on the 5 minute ES Chart would not have the ability to see the YM, nor use its signals.
- Spydertrader
Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Those focused exclusively on the 5 minute ES Chart would not have the ability to see the YM, nor use its signals.
- Spydertrader
Today's ES - 5 point scale.
- Spydertrader
- Spydertrader
15:20 [close of] Bar on ES is marked with blue FTT sign. Knowing that a Failure to Traverse represents a signal for change at a specific point in time. In other words, while Price fails to reach the LTL, this isn't the only requirement for an FTT. It also needs a signal for change.
I can not see, based on what I learned so far, how one can conclude that 15:20 [close of] Bar on ES is a signal for change at the close of that bar. May be the next bar, when price closed back inside the previous SYM.
I keep seeing similar situations but fail to account for an actual change signal other than an observation that price closes back inside a pennant/formation/lateral.
Any hints or nudges in the right direction would be much appreciated.
A (2 by 4) is also fine.
My turn to clarify. I was being totally fascetious. These are quite possibly the worst places to go for accurate info on how the market works. The only cash that ends up being extracted is the cash from the hapless trader's account.
Niederhoffer is said to have remarked, "You must learn to embrace risk". The problem with that coupling is that it is eventually the risk which embraces and eliminates you. I like the Tudor-Jones addage: "Minimize risk - maximize leverage".
lj
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Quote from gucci: 09-23-08 09:43 AM
IMHO. I actually thought that lateral and dominant (movements)are mutually exclusive?
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What we are doing as we move from point 1 at 11 AM onwards is building first a tape then a traverse then a channel. What I will say in the next post and what I said last night in the long post is contingent upon there being a point 1 at 11 AM. Do you agree that there is a point 1 at 11 AM?
lj
Sorry for the delayed response. As you will have already seen, Romanus proposed a solution which says that:
1. There is no point 1 at 11:00 because of lack of sequence completion at that time.
2. There is a point 1 at 11:40 and that neatly takes care of the problem.
However my data vendor forced me to approach things differently but as intimated in Spyder's post (with chart) there is a way out of the 'data conundrum'. I have not looked at his chart in detail but will do so and as well the area in today's chart he referred to.
What I was trying to do with the "2-3 retrace thingy" was to reconcile what I was perceiving on a channel basis with, as it turns out, what was happening in the super channel, which was a 2-3 retrace. It is my current feeling that such heuristics are not the best way to do this and so I will look again till I figure out what I misperceived.
lj
Quote from gucci: 09-23-08 09:43 AM
IMHO. I actually thought that lateral and dominant (movements)are mutually exclusive?
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What we are doing as we move from point 1 at 11 AM onwards is building first a tape then a traverse then a channel. What I will say in the next post and what I said last night in the long post is contingent upon there being a point 1 at 11 AM. Do you agree that there is a point 1 at 11 AM?
lj
Sorry for the delayed response. As you will have already seen, Romanus proposed a solution which says that:
1. There is no point 1 at 11:00 because of lack of sequence completion at that time.
2. There is a point 1 at 11:40 and that neatly takes care of the problem.
However my data vendor forced me to approach things differently but as intimated in Spyder's post (with chart) there is a way out of the 'data conundrum'. I have not looked at his chart in detail but will do so and as well the area in today's chart he referred to.
What I was trying to do with the "2-3 retrace thingy" was to reconcile what I was perceiving on a channel basis with, as it turns out, what was happening in the super channel, which was a 2-3 retrace. It is my current feeling that such heuristics are not the best way to do this and so I will look again till I figure out what I misperceived.
lj
Good. 'Cuz you don't have a change signal on that specific bar. The signal comes later (2 bars). Had I 'fanned' out the Traverse (Green), you'd see the bar to which you refer actually bounces off the LTL. See attached.
Sometimes, we see change just before the peak. Sometimes, we see change exactly on the Peak. Sometimes, we see change just after the Peak when using only the 5 minute ES. We don't have the luxury of 'carving the turns' when using only a coarse level tool. As you so eloquently pointed out in an earlier post, if using the YM, one has a signal exactly on the 15:20 ES [close of] Bar, and by using it to take appropriate action, a trader makes an extra few points by 'carving the turn.'
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2085078>
Again, as you have already noted, the change signal develops on the YM - exactly as required by the market. However, for those not using the YM, the market provides no signal. - on the 15:20 bar. However, Price doesn't just break out of a Pennant here. Price also breaks a Right Trend Line in the process (a subtle difference, perhaps?) - creating a change in dominance in the process. Lastly, compare the various traverses with each other (with respect to Price and Volume) and note the similarities within each.
If people study no other charts but today, they can learn much.
- Spydertrader
Mark the Volume bars D or N for Dominant or Non-Dominant. I encourage everyone to participate. I think many will be surprised at their answers.
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2085119>
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2085119>
Drill Two.
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2085121>
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2085121>