Excuse me but I thought I had spelled out clearly and concisely WHY 11:55 appeared to be traverse level change. We have seen traverse level pts 1, 2 and 3. By the time we get to 11:55 we have seen sequence completion witha jokari window signal for change following a confirmed point 3. So, IF we are to know whether or not 11:55 is continuation or change, we need to know if the sequence begins again at 11:40. I fail to see how this is "off topic"!
Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Excuse me but I thought I had spelled out clearly and concisely WHY 11:55 appeared to be traverse level change. We have seen traverse level pts 1, 2 and 3. By the time we get to 11:55 we have seen sequence completion witha jokari window signal for change following a confirmed point 3. So, IF we are to know whether or not 11:55 is continuation or change, we need to know if the sequence begins again at 11:40. I fail to see how this is "off topic"!
Btw dkm I really like your charts.
Anyhow personally, in real time (simulated
) I concluded both bar to bar and after debrief that 11:55 was continuation.I realize that is opposite of JW. imo, JW / mode are not absolute. There are still other mitigating / subtle factors. Also a "soc" JW (again imo) doesn't need to indicate a reversal. It can indicate upcoming lateral movement, which is the case here, it doesn't indicate change in dominance until confirmed.
The big hint to me that 11:55 was still continuation of the green up-channel's movement after the point 3 ago was that the bar closed almost at it's high, and closed higher than the previous bar's high and close.
Usually in a JW situation like this that might indicate a reversal more, (at least this is my guess, haven't researched it), you would see another sign, such as a somewhat smaller bar range on the 11:55, or the bar closing much closer to the previous bar's high with a longer wick on top, or usually high pace possibly.
edit: scratch the "unusually high pace", that would change the JW mode so render this moot. Still I think the other factors I mention and other layers of context play a role in anticipating whether a JW has a soc or if it is a soc whether it is likely to be confirmed or just a slowdown (lateral).
If you have definitely determined 11:55 is change then by all means continue.
However before you do consider these questions (applied to a decreasing vol bar occurring after an increasing vol bar):
1) When you have a decreasing volume bar what is your expectation for bar volatility? What did we have for the 11:55 bar?
2) Irrespective of volatility, is a close outside prior bar always JW change and a close inside prior bar JW continuation?
I have a question for DKM and others relating to the current debate about the UP channel on 9/19. In order to have a valid UP channel we must have dominant/non-dominant/dominant price movement. Where does the group see non-dominant movement (lateral or traverse) in this channel?
John
John
More analysis on Friday's chart. I hope others don't mind me sharing my thought process...but I'm determined to break this thing down into reasonable conclusions. This is not a bar-by-bar analysis, but rather an examination of specific bars to see if they provide us channel sequence clues.
(Times on my chart are Central, but I'll use Eastern for bar analysis.)
10:05 - Sequence completed for down traverse. Peak Volume as well.
10:10-15 - Price moves lower on drv suggesting change...possibly lateral movement.
10:20 - Price moves higher on ibv. The lateral isn't formed until this bar is completed. Does the ibv suggest mode change? New up sequence?
10:30 - irv formation bo/fbo
10:40 - ibv confirms up sequence
10:50 - irv formation bo/fbo
11:00 - irv formation bo/fbo change signal
11:05 - ibv formation bo/fbo
11:10 - ibv formation bo/fbo
11:30 - irv formation bo/fbo
11:45 - ibv formation bo/fbo
11:50 - ibv formation bo/fbo - breakout bar pt 1
12:00 - ibv confirming our pt 1 at 11:50
12:30 - ibv formation bo/fbo - sequence not completed.
1:25 - ibv - sequence completed
(Times on my chart are Central, but I'll use Eastern for bar analysis.)
10:05 - Sequence completed for down traverse. Peak Volume as well.
10:10-15 - Price moves lower on drv suggesting change...possibly lateral movement.
10:20 - Price moves higher on ibv. The lateral isn't formed until this bar is completed. Does the ibv suggest mode change? New up sequence?
10:30 - irv formation bo/fbo
10:40 - ibv confirms up sequence
10:50 - irv formation bo/fbo
11:00 - irv formation bo/fbo change signal
11:05 - ibv formation bo/fbo
11:10 - ibv formation bo/fbo
11:30 - irv formation bo/fbo
11:45 - ibv formation bo/fbo
11:50 - ibv formation bo/fbo - breakout bar pt 1
12:00 - ibv confirming our pt 1 at 11:50
12:30 - ibv formation bo/fbo - sequence not completed.
1:25 - ibv - sequence completed