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Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Quote from treeline:
After all sequences for a Traverse have completed (i.e., after P3 has been confirmed), does a bar which moves in the dominant direction on decreasing volume but increasing volatility, represent continuation at the ES-only Traverse fractal (again, for a bar that does not close in LM)?
Is this correct application of Jokari Window?
Are these two different answers corect depending on where Price closes with respect to the previous bar?
Thank you.
After all sequences for a Traverse have completed (i.e., after P3 has been confirmed), does a bar which moves in the dominant direction on decreasing volume but increasing volatility, represent continuation at the ES-only Traverse fractal (again, for a bar that does not close in LM)?
Quote from Spydertrader:
Apply the Jokari Window to the exact scenario you describe. You should receive two different answers depending on where Price closes with respect to the previous bar.
Is this correct application of Jokari Window?
Are these two different answers corect depending on where Price closes with respect to the previous bar?
Thank you.
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Apologies, my question was not phrased correctly.Quote from Spydertrader:
Based only on the example provided (two bars and no other context), then you have correctly provided examples of the two answers I refered to previously.
- Spydertrader
The Jokari Window has decreasing Volume after increasing Volume. That increasing Volume part has to increase over something. That something is a third bar.
Does the above mean that one can not apply jokari window logic to the last bar in the attached?
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If my previous assumption is correct - one can not apply jokari window logic in this context as well?Quote from romanus:
The Jokari Window has decreasing Volume after increasing Volume. That increasing Volume part has to increase over something. That something is a third bar.
Does the above mean that one can not apply jokari window logic to the last bar in the attached?
Attachments
Quote from Spydertrader:
You see the details just fine. However, the answer you seek has become obscured by these details. Zoom out and 'see' the bigger picture.
- Spydertrader
Spydertrader,
having considered the details previously, I'ven now zoomed out, too see if I can expose the difference between the 11:55 and the 12:35 bars, based on context. This is what I see.
11:55 bar
a ) exhibits the (3) bar volume and price requirements for Jokari window change.
b) Final leg of green UP PT3 sequence is confirmed with increasing volume on bars at 11:45 and 11:50
b) 11:55 bar Opened with Dom direction UP and closed with Dom direction Down.
12:35 bar
a ) exhibits the (3) bar volume and price requirements for Jokari window change. (This presumes that the 2nd bar of the Jokari sequence is valid even though inc vol occurs on a lateral bo)
b) Final leg of the blue UP PT3 sequence is not confirmed with increasing volume (inc blk volume on 12:30 bar was lateral bo)
c) 12:35 bar opened and closed with the Dom direction being Down.
Based on these observations, I expected price to reverse in response to the sequence of events that led upto and ended at bar 12:35. Maybe that response was just lateral movement, or am I missing something else?
Thanks,
Phineas
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Quote from treeline:
After all sequences for a Traverse have completed (i.e., after P3 has been confirmed), does a bar which moves in the dominant direction on decreasing volume but increasing volatility, represent continuation at the ES-only Traverse fractal (again, for a bar that does not close in LM)?
Quote from Spydertrader:
Apply the Jokari Window to the exact scenario you describe. You should receive two different answers depending on where Price closes with respect to the previous bar.
Context being discussed is a decreased volume bar with increased volatility occurring after an increasing volume bar.
Price closing outside previous bar is continuation and price closing inside previous bar is change. (Thinking in terms of two negatives giving a positive outcome)
At 10:55 we have pt1. At 11:15 we have pt2. At 11:40 we have pt3, and an fbp. 11:45 bo's the fbp on increasing black volume. 11:50 provides more increasing black volume, confirming the pt3 and confirming the 1,2,3 traverse sequence (green).
The higher close with decreasing black volume on the 11:55 bar completes the first 1,2,3 sequence with a jokari window traverse level signal for change.
Knowing whether or not we have begun a new sequence with the 11:40 bar is crucial in the analysis of 11:55. Clearly, with hindsight, price continued to a new pt2 at 12:00 and the jokari window traverse level signal for change on 11:55 was not a point of change. So, at what point in time do we know that 11:40 is a new pt1? Is it at 11:50 because we have the fbp bo on ibv, followed by more ibv? Or is it at the close of 12:00 when we see that the signal for change at 11:55 was false?
The higher close with decreasing black volume on the 11:55 bar completes the first 1,2,3 sequence with a jokari window traverse level signal for change.
Knowing whether or not we have begun a new sequence with the 11:40 bar is crucial in the analysis of 11:55. Clearly, with hindsight, price continued to a new pt2 at 12:00 and the jokari window traverse level signal for change on 11:55 was not a point of change. So, at what point in time do we know that 11:40 is a new pt1? Is it at 11:50 because we have the fbp bo on ibv, followed by more ibv? Or is it at the close of 12:00 when we see that the signal for change at 11:55 was false?
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Quote from dkm:
At 10:55 we have pt1. At 11:15 we have pt2. At 11:40 we have pt3, and an fbp. 11:45 bo's the fbp on increasing black volume. 11:50 provides more increasing black volume, confirming the pt3 and confirming the 1,2,3 traverse sequence (green).
The higher close with decreasing black volume on the 11:55 bar completes the first 1,2,3 sequence with a jokari window traverse level signal for change.
Knowing whether or not we have begun a new sequence with the 11:40 bar is crucial in the analysis of 11:55. Clearly, with hindsight, price continued to a new pt2 at 12:00 and the jokari window traverse level signal for change on 11:55 was not a point of change. So, at what point in time do we know that 11:40 is a new pt1? Is it at 11:50 because we have the fbp bo on ibv, followed by more ibv? Or is it at the close of 12:00 when we see that the signal for change at 11:55 was false?
David I believe you trying to solve the wrong problem.
Have you established that 11:55 is definitely change? I haven't seen anyone one attempt to answer the question spydertrader posed to treeline based on the exact scenario and context being discussed until I posted my answer (my last post has treeline's comments and spyder's instructions).
Until you can definitely say based on the context at 11:55 bar we had change there is no point trying to find some other reason to justify ignoring change at 11:55.
So let try to stay on topic with Guava's original question - "Was 11:55 change or continuation". If it is in fact change then we can look for other reasons to ignore the change signal, however we are not at that step yet.