Perhaps, my answer can help both you and the good doctor. Intra-Bar at 14:00, we do have Price moving higher than the previous bar. However, by close of the ES 14:00 bar, Price no longer sits above the previous bar.
- Spydertrader
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Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
Perhaps, my answer can help both you and the good doctor. Intra-Bar at 14:00, we do have Price moving higher than the previous bar. However, by close of the ES 14:00 bar, Price no longer sits above the previous bar.
- Spydertrader
Quote from icarus618:
Do you believe the market always makes a p3 without exception?
I see this very same thing unfold day after day. The market always creates a Point Three. The difficulty many have results from their inability to differentiate what they believe they see from what the market has actually provided. A thing might look like a Traverse, but isn't. The market even has a convenient way of working things out so it appears nothing is amiss. By not knowing whether the market actually provided what the trader believes they can see, the trader unwittingly reinforces bad habits.
Quote from icarus618:
Not sure I get you here. Every bar within the lateral represents continuation of WHAT? The lateral? If so, the lateral itself is change (nondominant movement) and the bars within it are not as neat as bars in a dominant (continuation); they will often falsely signal change from a PV standpoint, unless you know you're in a lateral and ignore the PV signals.
In order to remain crystal clear, the Lateral under duscussion represents a Lateral Formation, and one which is in the process of forming a Point Two to point three retrace. The entire Lateral represents continuation as a 5 minutes ES Traverse Level trader does not trade the retraces. As long as Price continues to form a lateral, and as long as the market has yet to arrive at Point Three, the market has not yet provided permission to seek a change in mode. In addition, the trader knows that unless the market arrives at Point Three and then provides a signal for change, the sequences required for a mode change have not yet completed. Romanus showed everyone this earlier today.
Quote from icarus618:
I take it you mean each and every 5 minute bar. I'm not disagreeing with you, but I'd be interested to know what you think the 5 min bars really show.
The time frame chosen doesn't effect the signals provided by the market. The faster the time frame, the more signals provided, but the greater the possibility of noise affecting the signal during periods of extraordinary low volume. To avoid this, one can choose to use a much slower fractal. While using a slower fractal reduces the influence of noise, it also reduces profits by increasing the time between actions. Fast moving markets, which can turn on a dime cause the trader to have to wait (until end of bar) to 'receive' the signal, when the market has already turned long ago. The five minute ES strikes a balance between slow fractals and fast.
However, even as a balance we, as traders, have arbitraily chosen a cutoff point in time which may, or may not, accurately portray the ebbs and flows of a particular market when using a five minute chart. However, each five minute bar shows the trader several things.
1. contunation or change (based on their trading fractal)
2. Whether or not the sequences required have arrived at completion
3. Dominance (and non-dominance).
4. Current Pace
- Spydertrader
Quote from Spydertrader:
Perhaps, my answer can help both you and the good doctor. Intra-Bar at 14:00, we do have Price moving higher than the previous bar. However, by close of the ES 14:00 bar, Price no longer sits above the previous bar.
- Spydertrader
Thank you Spyder.
If we look at what you gave us (in the chart posted by Ezzy) it appears to me that in fact we have both scenarios, e.g., the one you just described and the one you described earlier in the post from page 924. Oh goodee! Now I can make even more money.
The 'cells' Spyder is referring to are the 'tape' and 'traverse' cells I believe. It is also apparent that the Jokari determination is done taking 3 bars sequentially, like - 1,2,3 and 2,3,4 and 3,4,5 and etc.
It is too neat that if you blew the intra-bar JW, you still could 'pick it up' on the next bar. Finally it might be kind o' trippy to see how this stuff plays out in FX (with no volume), ezzy, but my guess is you've already done that.
So what remains then (maybe, heh) is PA vs PkV (formerly PeV and less confusing than PV and a lot shorter than peak volume). I'm looking at a combo of increasing Gaussian slope plus price deceleration and seeing if that explains thingys.
lj
If any of this blab is wrong please call in Torquemada to straighten matters out.
Quote from Spydertrader:
I see this very same thing unfold day after day. The market always creates a Point Three. The difficulty many have results from their inability to differentiate what they believe they see from what the market has actually provided. A thing might look like a Traverse, but isn't. The market even has a convenient way of working things out so it appears nothing is amiss. By not knowing whether the market actually provided what the trader believes they can see, the trader unwittingly reinforces bad habits.
Always a p3? See attachment of your annotated chart. My editing in red.
Quote from Spydertrader:
In order to remain crystal clear, the Lateral under duscussion represents a Lateral Formation, and one which is in the process of forming a Point Two to point three retrace. The entire Lateral represents continuation as a 5 minutes ES Traverse Level trader does not trade the retraces. As long as Price continues to form a lateral, and as long as the market has yet to arrive at Point Three, the market has not yet provided permission to seek a change in mode. In addition, the trader knows that unless the market arrives at Point Three and then provides a signal for change, the sequences required for a mode change have not yet completed. Romanus showed everyone this earlier today.
This is still not quite clear to me. Can you get a change signal on a 5m bar within a lateral? Your answer would be no?
It seems what you are saying is that once you determine a lateral "formation" (which, if I'm using your terms as you do, is always "continuation" for a "5m ES Traverse Level trader") then the definition of change at the individual 5m bar level would not apply for any bar within the lateral, even though the same definition would otherwise apply to 5m bars outside the lateral? Have I completely misunderstood what you are stating?
Another point of confusion for me: you say Point 3 is change. We are obviously not on the same page on our use of terms. Point 3 for me is continuation par excellence.
This is not quite what I was asking, but that's my fault for asking an open ended question. I had a different line of thought in mind with my question which is probably better left unintroduced in this thread. In any case, I do find your reference to "noise" interesting. By noise you are saying some individual bars don't provide any useful signals?Quote from Spydertrader:
The time frame chosen doesn't effect the signals provided by the market. The faster the time frame, the more signals provided, but the greater the possibility of noise affecting the signal during periods of extraordinary low volume. To avoid this, one can choose to use a much slower fractal. While using a slower fractal reduces the influence of noise, it also reduces profits by increasing the time between actions. Fast moving markets, which can turn on a dime cause the trader to have to wait (until end of bar) to 'receive' the signal, when the market has already turned long ago. The five minute ES strikes a balance between slow fractals and fast.
Agree 100% on arbitrary, although 5m bars are convenient. Agree on your 4 points, with the caveat of accounting for periods of noise.Quote from Spydertrader:
However, even as a balance we, as traders, have arbitraily chosen a cutoff point in time which may, or may not, accurately portray the ebbs and flows of a particular market when using a five minute chart. However, each five minute bar shows the trader several things.
1. contunation or change (based on their trading fractal)
2. Whether or not the sequences required have arrived at completion
3. Dominance (and non-dominance).
4. Current Pace
Thanks for your reply.
Attachments
Spyder,
In the attached chart you had identified 3 Jokari changes, in the third instance of Jokari change, you identified it as the "same cell as previous".
According to my interpretation, all there fall into different cells (I have numbered the cells in the jokari window for easy reference): cells 4, 1 and 3 respectively.
Could you kindly point out where my interpretation has gone wrong.
Thanks
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2028731">
In the attached chart you had identified 3 Jokari changes, in the third instance of Jokari change, you identified it as the "same cell as previous".
According to my interpretation, all there fall into different cells (I have numbered the cells in the jokari window for easy reference): cells 4, 1 and 3 respectively.
Could you kindly point out where my interpretation has gone wrong.
Thanks
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2028731">
Attachments
Quote from icarus618:
Always a p3? See attachment of your annotated chart. My editing in red.
Circled indicates a Point Three down Traverse within a lateral Formation not forming a retace from Point Two to Point Three. This specific example you posted has a Lateral Formation as part of a retrace. Clearly, the example you posted differs significantly from the scenario I described (on several occassions to avoid any confusion).
Quote from icarus618:
This is still not quite clear to me. Can you get a change signal on a 5m bar within a lateral? Your answer would be no?
My answer would be yes for other types of laterals than the one described in my previous post. My answer would also be yes for someone using finer tools (trading at a different resolution level) and not simply trading at the ES five minute ES Traverse Level while monitoring a Point Two to Point Three retrace which also forms a Lateral Formation.
Quote from icarus618:
It seems what you are saying is that once you determine a lateral "formation" (which, if I'm using your terms as you do, is always "continuation" for a "5m ES Traverse Level trader") then the definition of change at the individual 5m bar level would not apply for any bar within the lateral, even though the same definition would otherwise apply to 5m bars outside the lateral? Have I completely misunderstood what you are stating?
No. In the example peviously discused, the market had not yet completed its sequences from Point One to Point Two to Point Three and into the channel / traverse. A lateral which forms after the squences have completed, and does not perform the function of a Lateral Retrace or Lateral Traverse represents something entirely diffrent.
Quote from icarus618:
Another point of confusion for me: you say Point 3 is change.
No. Perhaps I wasn't as clear as I thought. I have stated that change cannot exist (meaning a trader on the five minute ES Traverse Level only does not have permission to look for a signal of change) until after the sequences from Point One to Point Two to Point Three have completed. After this point in time, then, a trader can look for change to appear.
Quote from icarus618:
We are obviously not on the same page on our use of terms. Point 3 for me is continuation par excellence.
I agree. I do not consider a Point Three as change. It clearly represents continuation for the trading fractal under discussion.
Quote from icarus618:
By noise you are saying some individual bars don't provide any useful signals?
Every bar has a certain component of 'noise' within it. As Volume increases the effects of noise (the amount of noise contained in any signal) deminishes. At ultra low Volume levels, a trader can use finer tools in order to trade profitably. However, attempting to do so with a coarse tool set provides a recipe for disaster.
To be clear: All bars provide useful signals.
For traders who trade Intra-Bar, it is important to know when the market has 'locked in' the mode of the forming bar. At ultra low Volume levels, noise can provide the appearance of 'lock-in' if a trader doesn't use finer tools to note the subtle differences.
For traders who trade End of Bar, 'lock-in' (and the varying point in time in which this happens) doesn't provide an issue as 'lock-in' always occurs before end of bar. How soon before end of bar differs for each and every bar, but again, this isn't an issue for end of bar traders
I apologize if my previous responses failed to provide the clarity required. Hopefully, the above post improves the situation somewhat.
- Spydertrader
Quote from bi9foot:
Could you kindly point out where my interpretation has gone wrong.
It isn't incorrect. I should have been more clear.
I have mentally arranged the types of Jokari changes into two types (using a Neutral bias [meaning long is a mirror of short]). Unfortunately, I failed to provide that clarity in my previous post.
In other words, Price moves in the dominant direction on decreasing Volume or Price Moves in the non- dominant direction (after previously moving dominant) on increasing Volume. The areas marked on the chart with yellow 2 and 3 represent the same change as described in this post (hence my use of 'same cell').
However, for someone using the printed Jokari Window, you are correct to note the different cells which provide the description of change.
Again, I apologize for any confusion.
- Spydertrader