Iterative Refinement

Quote from ivob:

Hi,

20:05 (on your chart) you went short. Why did you hold after that despite increasing black volume?

I do realise that price came out of a lateral (I added the yellow lines) so it doesn't have to mean the trend changed but I'd say that at some point (when you notice price does not fall back in lateral) you would have to let it go or not?

thx
Ivo

<IMG SRC="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2020828">
More...
this was my worst trade yesterday....Looking from hindsight I should exit or reverse on lat BO.... or reenter on P3....I hold because price was in Cell3 traverse level when price BO from down traverse i knew that I am in Cell1 I have p3 channel and I reverse again and Hold to Channel VE and this trade save my ass:D
 
Is it correct to say that a traverse level trader 5 min ES only should have annotated 9 traverses today and 3 channels.... one of which that was fanned to form another channel?
 
Quote from TIKITRADER:

I think we are on 2 different topics altogether.
If not the case please explain and I will be happy to reply.
More...

I call these, Homeric moments of Doh! My profound analysis of what transpired on 7-29-08 has been wasted. Your chart would indicate of course, that you knew exactly what was going on because that's what was going on - no escape from the LM till that double bar breakout fixed the point 3, as described earlier.

I'm relieved that the source of the confusion, me, will now be silenced, at least for this point of interest.

Thanks TIKI.

lj
 
In the spirit of cleaning things up, kindly allow me to say that I had two reasons for posting that rather bizarre looking effort yesterday evening:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113310&perpage=6&pagenumber=1075

The first is that I had planned on asking Spyder some questions re LM's but thought that the chart was a better way to do it. He responded to me yesterday and today, indirectly, but sufficiently enough to slake my thirst for the possible limits of LMs.

The second is that by ignoring very clear traverse level signals for change, I morphed into an uber-channel player, that is I jumped up a fractal instead of the usual trip down into tape trader hell. Of interest, and not unsurprisingly so, I ended the day with a channel conformation like that which many others posted.

Tonight is c/c (compare and contrast) Spyder's intraday to my intraday and from a cursory glance at his, it's going to be painful, though definitely not as painful as being drawn and quartered (it was Edward the First - Longshanks or Ted I, as the Scots call him, who popularized this nasty bit of business and most famously used it to send William Wallace to his afterlife).

Hope all goes well for all this evening.

lj
 
I was looking over the ES chart today(8/6) and one part I absolutely couldn't figure out on my own was the point 3 at 14:45 end of bar

My question is.. IN REAL TIME.. how would the trader know that 14:35 end of bar(circled in pink with corresponding volume bar circled in pink) was not the dominant up tape needed to confirm point 3 of the blue up traverse. The thin fluorescent green tape shows increasing black volume and a higher high.

Obviously from what has been posted the 14:45 bar(circled in blue with corresponding volume bar circled in blue) was the actual confirmed point 3 of the blue up traverse. But before that bar existed how would a trader know not to draw in the traverse with 14:35 as their point 3?
 

Attachments

Quote from Spydertrader:

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2020705>
More...

Spydertrader, thanks for the chart. Are there any specific reasons you didn't annotate your Lateral Movement as Lateral Traverse?

TIA.
 
Quote from dkm:

I am still struggling with this problem from 7/29. Both examples show a lack of increasing black volume after the lat bo bar, but 11:20 on 7/18 was an FTT whereas 11:50 on 7/29 was a hold.

Both lat bo bars form a pt3 of a traverse. The only differerence that I can see is that the lat bo bar on 7/18 was also a VE of a shallower traverse. Is this the difference you were referring to? If not, could you possibly post your chart from 7/29?
More...
The hint was:
Hint: Compare the BreakOut Bars to see what differences exist.
I believe Spydertader's reference to BreakOut Bars meant to point out the presence of Peak Volume in one case and lack thereof in another.

The reference to lack of increasing volume after lateral (or formation) BO always meant to be used to determine whether or not the trend has changed. In other words the break out has to be in the direction opposite to the trend. If you still convinced that Guavaman's comment with that respect has any validity, try finding an example of the traverse which ended because of that particular Traverse level change 'signal'. I did and I failed. Every time one sees a change after lateral BO with failure to show increased volume it is because there's some other signal present that does the job or there's no traverse end point.

With respect to how Spydetrader determined at the end of 1150 eob bar that the action is hold, my take is that there was no change signal on that bar at all. Decreasing black volume in uptrend means lateral movement - continuation. I don't think Jokari window meant to be applied in that situation also. The volatility of the 11:50 bar is 3 times less than previous (the BO bar) but compare the volume (80% of the previous bar) - it is disproportionally larger than it should be according to PV relationship (Volatilty is proportional to Volume).
 
Quote from LittleMac:

I was looking over the ES chart today(8/6) and one part I absolutely couldn't figure out on my own was the point 3 at 14:45 end of bar

My question is.. IN REAL TIME.. how would the trader know that 14:35 end of bar(circled in pink with corresponding volume bar circled in pink) was not the dominant up tape needed to confirm point 3 of the blue up traverse. The thin fluorescent green tape shows increasing black volume and a higher high.

Obviously from what has been posted the 14:45 bar(circled in blue with corresponding volume bar circled in blue) was the actual confirmed point 3 of the blue up traverse. But before that bar existed how would a trader know not to draw in the traverse with 14:35 as their point 3?
More...

I also had big problems with this Littlemac, lost 2.75 points there.

2 bars before your marked bar (red vertical line) we had a fbo. (I went long, closing prices lining up etc, all lights green). The next bar it was red but price closed within the previous bar. Sure, one bar later we had a IBGS but no increasing red whatsoever. In fact, it was decresasing all the time.

We do not get increasing red until 2 bars after your marked bar...

regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from Spydertrader:


Locate the subtle difference.

Everyone needs to transition from the 'rule based' mindset until they locate the differences which form the rules in the first place.

Resist all attempts to overcomplicate things.

- Spydertrader
More...

It will be framed.:) Thanks.
 
In order to differentiate between actual Peak Volume from a 'Step Up' in pace (Pace Acceleration), does it have something to do with the price bar volatility compared to the previous bar? I.e. when the volatility does not increase more or less the same as the volume, then we have peak volume?

--
innersky
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top