Iterative Refinement

[ljyoung]

Partial quote from my most recent post:
The LM is NOT some sort of signal for change but what I do not appreciate is the extent to which it can 'regulate' what goes on between its boundaries.

I'm not saying here that there is any extent but rather that if there is I don't know the heirarchy between it and an appropriate signal for change. The first 3,1 started with a PFBO signal and was immediately followed with a Peak Volume signal, then a JW.

lj

 

[LittleMac]

Can anyone give the reason AT THE EXACT BAR to how you knew a fan was coming in the many fanned traverses today. I can only get one and it is the 11:05 close of bar where we saw decreased volatility on increased volume meaning that the first traverse of the day would need to be fanned as this was a change on the tape level.

Also does a difference exist between a fan of an FBO and a fan in general. Basically does an FBO only occur after an FTT? And does a fan only occur after a signal for change not on the fractal you are monitoring(such as a tape level change while monitoring on the traverse level as we are)?

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from romanus:

What is the correct logic here?

You already know how to draw lines. You already know all the logic. You don't need to ask me for the answers. The answers already exist in your mind.

Let's see if we can't draw them out.

Each day starts the same way. A less experienced trader monitors as the market moves its way to sync, while a more experience trader knows how the markt plans to move before the open on br one.

Start with the first three bars of this day. What do you see? How does this effect the market mode? What do the clues provided by the market tell you to expect in the future? What happened ext, and wha does this tell you?

- Spyertrader

 

[PTVtrader]

Quote from TIKITRADER:

ES U8 Daily Chart August 5 2008



Would anyone care to take a shot at 'M' and 'A' on the daily.

Daily is currently in a non dominant traverse of this large down channel.
It is colored in green.

The green, non dominant traverse of the major down channel has a valid- first dominant traverse in a slate blue.

Does the green, non dominant traverse of major down channel, have yet to complete a full second sequence?

It would have to do that to begin a third sequence, another dominant traverse, to complete the green non dominant traverse of the major down channel.

Sounds like a tongue twister.

Any thoughts?

I see this

 

[romanus]

Quote from Spydertrader:

…
Start with the first three bars of this day. What do you see? How does this effect the market mode? What do the clues provided by the market tell you to expect in the future? What happened ext, and wha does this tell you?

I see volume increasing across all three first bars of that day.
The price however creates a lateral movement.

Quote from Spydertrader:

…
How does this effect the market mode? What do the clues provided by the market tell you to expect in the future? What happened ext, and wha does this tell you?

The first thing that comes to mind, and in this case it is not applied to a specific bar closing inside the previous bar’s range, is that lateral movement on increased volume means expect change.

Quote from Spydertrader:

…
What do the clues provided by the market tell you to expect in the future? What happened ext, and wha does this tell you?

Just as with formations, we expect the price to break out of the lateral movement.

Quote from Spydertrader:

…
What happened next, and what does this tell you?

The price broke out of the lateral movement on increasing volume, with more increased volume followed on the next bar after BO.

We have a Trend.

 

[Jander]

Quote from romanus:

I see volume increasing across all three first bars of that day.
The price however creates a lateral movement.

IIRC, this hints at an upcoming trend day. Although Im not sure that is what Spyder is trying to communicate here

 

[Spydertrader]

Let's look a little closer and 'see' what the market says. First, we have an small gap up on increasing black Volume followed by an Outside Bar on increasing red Volume - which shows the trader a change in dominance (from long to short). Bar three has yet another signal for change - this time from short to long. As a result, the market mode at sync is long. See attached.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2019796>

 

[romanus]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Let's look a little closer and 'see' what the market says. First, we have an small gap up on increasing black Volume followed by an Outside Bar on increasing red Volume - which shows the trader a change in dominance (from long to short). Bar three has yet another signal for change - this time from short to long. As a result, the market mode at sync is long. See attached.

Aha! And the mode stays long for the next 16 bars until 11:10 eob, an outside bar with Jokari Window signaling short.

 

[Spydertrader]

Bar 4 shows the trader a Sym Pennant (the market moves sideways confirming the change signal on the previous bar) and Bar 5 heads higher (as the market indicated two bars prior) breaking out of the Pennant on increasing black Volume. The next two bars provide additional higher highs on additional increasing black Volume. What appears as Peak Volume exhibits a subtle difference to the actual signal - Pace Acceleration. One can study the effects of Pace Acceleration by reviewing the 5 minute ES on 7-30-2008 from 15:15 to EOD. How can we know for sure Bar 7 doesn't signal Peak volume? Bar 8 moves higher. Of course, in hindsight this is perfectly clear. However, in real time, (once differentiated) the difference is also crystal clear. I leave to you the work of differentiation.

As to whether or not a Traverse exists on the 4 bar run up in Price and Volume, Ask yourself, "What do all Traverses have in common?" and "Do my annotations reflect this?"

Make sure you use only the tools avilable on the five minute ES.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2019815>

- Spydertrader

 

[LittleMac]

Quote from romanus:

Aha! And the mode stays long for the next 16 bars until 11:10 eob, an outside bar with Jokari Window signaling short.

Whats the change at bar 3 then? Looks like decreased volatility on increased red to me.

I also have that marked on my posted chart from todays ES when the aqua traverse fans to green but in the other two pink circled areas there seems to be a change there that is not on the traverse level that merits a fan from green to royal blue to light blue according to my fanned traverses. This seems to match many other charts posted today.

Does anyone know the signal here that allows the trader to know theres a fan coming?