Iterative Refinement

TIKITRADER · Aug 2, 2008

romanus · Aug 2, 2008

Quote from icarus618:

Trading is not an academic exercise. I'm like the farmer who gets his hands dirty putting in a full day of work every day. I prepare, I trade, I rest and prepare again to trade the next day.

I have a great respect for your contributions. Your posts from the early JH threads reside backed up on my computer. So my comments are not meant to contradict, nor should they be considered to be complaints or criticism.

I find myself stuck at the point where I can't even figure out how the "bread and butter" folks made pt3 trades work for them.

The paradigm: "If one can't see the signals and distinguish change from continuation, how is pushing buttons going to help" makes a lot of sense to me. So I made a decision to stick to learning how to annotate correctly, hoping that one day after lots and lots of screen time I will be able to 'see' the market.

Quote from icarus618:

Do you not realize how little KSE (knowledge, skill, experience) it takes to do that? Do you not realize that a bare minimum level of competence is all it takes to get the ball rolling? Not mastery, a bare minimum of competence.

Anything you can add to elaborate on that would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you.

romanus · Aug 2, 2008

Quote from romanus:

Anything you can add to elaborate on that would be greatly appreciated.

To be more specific, I am not looking for shortcuts. Examples of individuals exist in these threads, who made it to the 'other side' by repeatedly doing the set of tasks (drills) specified in detail in these same threads.

I would greatly value your additional insights, just as I value your other observations in early JH threads.

callmate · Aug 2, 2008

Quote from romanus:

Examples of individuals exist in these threads, who made it to the 'other side' by repeatedly doing the set of tasks (drills) specified in detail in these same threads.

I know you are addressing icarus618, but I would like to chip in, you folks have made it really hard for yourselves. Look at Spyder's earlier charts, the links have been posted today, rather simple?
My working charts are similar to Spyder's old charts with FTT, 123
BO, FBO, HVS etc marked. That's all you need for your bread and butter, train your eye to spot FTT, 123. Keep it simple

romanus · Aug 2, 2008

Quote from callmate:

I know you are addressing icarus618, but I would like to chip in, you folks have made it really hard for yourselves. Look at Spyder's earlier charts, the links have been posted today, rather simple?
My working charts are similar to Spyder's old charts with FTT, 123
BO, FBO, HVS etc marked. That's all you need for your bread and butter, train your eye to spot FTT, 123. Keep it simple

You're always welcome to to chip in. This post of yours has been a real eye opener for me. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1833701#post1833701

Spydertrader · Aug 2, 2008

Quote from romanus:

Or all traverses annotations in your more recent charts above were done to illustrate the beginning and end of each traverse at Traverse Level Change points.

Earlier charts represented annotation on multiple fractals.

- Spydertrader

PointOne · Aug 2, 2008

Quote from Spydertrader:

For those who still don't 'see' how fractal changes work, note the attached chart. I have annotated multifractal traverses within a very large, full day Lateral (in addition to all flaws and Outside Bars). Please note how the market offers up a Traverse Level signal for change each time Price exits the lateral. One should now see how if a trader chooses to Trade within a lateral, a finer tool (than the ES alone ) is required. No Tapes or Channels annotated on this chart.

- Spydertrader

I still fail to see why a traverse level trader cannot make informed decisions and actions throughout the day in question using the ES only. Am I the only one?

One more go:

I've annotated some of my observations on your chart for discussion (see also my last couple of posts and also Mr Black's chart, which is closest to my view*).

Please advise where I have gone off track in my analysis for a traverse level trader. Clearly neither of the 2 possible channels completed a traverse post Point 3, but why would that concern the traverse level trader who is timing his entries off tapes and volume?

Consider also this beautifully concise description from Jack where he states trends can fail their first dominant traverse after P3 (and by implication this is not knowable before P3):

A trend begins and price moves with the trend. Then a retrace occurs. Then a resumption of the trend occurs. All trends exhibit these three things. From this point on the process can repeat or the final resumption could be happening.

A traverse in the direction of a trend is dominant because volume is increasing during such a traverse. Non-dominant traverse are characterized by decreasing volume. these are retraces. Volume peaks end dominant traverse. volume troughs end non dominant traverses.

There is always a last and final dominant traverse of a trend that fails to get to the other side of the channel. It is called a Failure To Traverse (FTT).

Finally a serious question to all:
are you happy to say that bar 8 was not peak volume? Could you explain this to an impartial friend and keep a straight face? If you asked a 10 year old to point out the peaks in volume, which bars do you think he would choose?

Honest answers please.

[* hindsight, not real time.]

Tums · Aug 2, 2008

Quote from romanus:
I find myself stuck at the point where I can't even figure out how the "bread and butter" folks made pt3 trades work for them...

Callmate has posted many Pt3 "bread and butter" trades.
You can use those examples as starting points to narrow down your questions.

Tums · Aug 2, 2008

Quote from PointOne:
Finally a serious question to all:
are you happy to say that bar 8 was not peak volume? Could you explain this to an impartial friend and keep a straight face? If you asked a 10 year old to point out the peaks in volume, which bars do you think he would choose?
Honest answers please.
[* hindsight, not real time.]

The volume peaked, but it is not "Peak Volume".

A quick recite of Spyder's description might help you set your sight in the required perspective.

romanus · Aug 2, 2008

Quote from PointOne:

...
Honest answers please.

With all due respect, and please don't take it the wrong way, as my comments are not meant to be argumentative by intent.
Personally I consider all the Journals, starting with the first equity journal, to be an incredibly detailed account of an individual's learning 'journey'. He shared all his observations and thought process with respect to how market operates beginning with his first steps in equities. Now if he calls something he sees as Peak Volume, for the sake of my own learning progress I am going to use his definition if it helps me see the market the way he sees it.

Now, if how you see the market, works for you in terms of making money consistently, my compliments as you are definitely way ahead of me in this game.

Arguing about definitions does not seem productive at all. I have a PhD from one of the top European universities, which makes it worth two American PhD's, no offense to my American friends. If you want to argue about definitions I can direct you to some math papers that should give you a good start. I have been glued to the screen watching ES for the past 6 months. If instead of trying to figure out definitions as my brain has been conditioned to do, I focused on purposeful monitoring, I would not find myself in a position needing to go back to the beginning and start again from scratch.

Again, none of the above meant in offensive or confrontational manner. An honest answer as you asked.

Iterative Refinement

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