Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
This may not be the type of input that you're looking for, but after my premature attempt on 'A' today I feel increasingly sure the best way to build those connections in the brain that enable understanding of this methodology is to follow Spydertrader's advice on monitoring. I actually copied by hand his instructions with respect to the manner in which the monitoring should be conducted from his several recent posts on that subject to make sure I did not miss anything. I do not dismiss his advice with respect to the 'M' portion as "being sent back to school", because I fortunate enough to realize that when he posts something, it always has substance. From my own experience I found that reading the answers to one particular context/scenario may produce an immediate relief, but not the long term consequences such as being able to apply the same concept in another context. When frustration arises from seeing information that seemingly 'contradicts' another information, as it often does with me, it's sure sign that I am on the wrong track. At this point it's clear to me that with respect to the 'A' portion, venturing ahead of myself does not seem to produce anything but confusion and frustration. Consider the above just as my personal observation about my own learning process, which may or may not apply to your situation.
By the way, after I started doing those drills, some really weird stuff started going on, I started noticing certain things, just like he said I would, and I am not even through my first 50 charts.
Good luck to you.
P.S. 1305 looks like Peak Volume. See the previous discussion for that.
Just as I thought:
-----------------
Avi 8
11-05-07 02:44 PM
Here is my reply to a PM I received today in reference to callmate's chart from earlier today and my post that followed. Thought it might be of interest.
First the DT FTT on the 1045 bar let me know to expect price to go down. Could be a retrace so let's watch what happens at the RTL. Barely increasing blk volume compared to the volume that made the DT. So I check the YM and see blk volume about the same, not increasing. So now I think, pt 2 down, and wait for a pt3 to form. Yes the YM matched the HOD but on LESS volume AND since the ES didn't follow, I assume the ES is WEAKER. Therefore I wait to go short on inc red vol.
Notice this same scenario repeated again starting with the FTT at 1150.
The confidence comes from lots of screen time and KNOWING that I do in fact KNOW what to 'expect' next and if 'it' doesn't show up, then exit and regroup.
--------------------------------------
Here's some more cool stuff. Notice the dates and how a Peak Volume is referenced:
----------------------------------
Dantheman
06-01-07 09:17 PM
.........
drills baby. drills. drawing P/V channels both in hindsight and real time. over and over and over.
-----------------------------------------
Dantheman
10-02-07 07:51 AM
For me, (aside from considering the ym during the bounce phase)...I would be taking note of the fact that the closing of the price bar should be a heck of a lot higher on that much volume.
in other words... "why would this price bar be closing so "low" on extreme volume at the LTL?"
big warning flag for me.
------------------------------
Dantheman
10-30-07 07:51 AM
start reading the journal from the beginning (actually, procrast made it easy for you and compiled 5 initial volumes for you to print out and read.). Don't look for spoon fed answers because that ain't gonna happen. In fact, it can't happen
here's a drill.
annotate 100 5 min es charts in hindsight.
actually, print them out and do it. annotate the gaussians.
don't worry about getting it right or wrong. just do it.
IF you want extra credit, print out the corresponding 2 min ym charts and do the same thing.
do the same in real time when the market is open. Also, record it if you can. extra credit for doing same on ym.
doing these drills will be far more productive than seeking an answer to your question AT THIS TIME.
DO write your questions down. Just don't be in such a hury to answer them or have them answered.
-----------------------------------
Dantheman
10-30-07 11:45 AM
how would having a rigorous definition of what an FTT is help you?
You know where the FTT is located right? It's not where the channel doesn't overlap.
drill down from what you know, and where you know.
don't let yourself get frustrated and more importantly OFF TRACK about a specific definition that may or may not hold meaning for you when put into print language.
put another way...
"seeing is believing."
-------------------------------
Dantheman
04-24-08 07:21 PM
Quote from Spydertrader:
Speaking of which, how are things since the lightening bolt split your head?
- Spydertrader
pretty good, I've started live trading again about a month ago after proving to myself on paper that I knew what I was seeing/doing. been having slow and steady gains since then.
nothing spectacular yet but I know that I know what I know. And I know how to do it.
I'm not trading rockets and I'm not trading FTT's. I guess you could say my trading is similar to easyrider's...entering on the rtl, exit on the left, repeat.
-------------------------------------------
----------------------------------
Dantheman
06-01-07 09:17 PM
.........
drills baby. drills. drawing P/V channels both in hindsight and real time. over and over and over.
-----------------------------------------
Dantheman
10-02-07 07:51 AM
For me, (aside from considering the ym during the bounce phase)...I would be taking note of the fact that the closing of the price bar should be a heck of a lot higher on that much volume.
in other words... "why would this price bar be closing so "low" on extreme volume at the LTL?"
big warning flag for me.
------------------------------
Dantheman
10-30-07 07:51 AM
start reading the journal from the beginning (actually, procrast made it easy for you and compiled 5 initial volumes for you to print out and read.). Don't look for spoon fed answers because that ain't gonna happen. In fact, it can't happen
here's a drill.
annotate 100 5 min es charts in hindsight.
actually, print them out and do it. annotate the gaussians.
don't worry about getting it right or wrong. just do it.
IF you want extra credit, print out the corresponding 2 min ym charts and do the same thing.
do the same in real time when the market is open. Also, record it if you can. extra credit for doing same on ym.
doing these drills will be far more productive than seeking an answer to your question AT THIS TIME.
DO write your questions down. Just don't be in such a hury to answer them or have them answered.
-----------------------------------
Dantheman
10-30-07 11:45 AM
how would having a rigorous definition of what an FTT is help you?
You know where the FTT is located right? It's not where the channel doesn't overlap.
drill down from what you know, and where you know.
don't let yourself get frustrated and more importantly OFF TRACK about a specific definition that may or may not hold meaning for you when put into print language.
put another way...
"seeing is believing."
-------------------------------
Dantheman
04-24-08 07:21 PM
Quote from Spydertrader:
Speaking of which, how are things since the lightening bolt split your head?
- Spydertrader
pretty good, I've started live trading again about a month ago after proving to myself on paper that I knew what I was seeing/doing. been having slow and steady gains since then.
nothing spectacular yet but I know that I know what I know. And I know how to do it.
I'm not trading rockets and I'm not trading FTT's. I guess you could say my trading is similar to easyrider's...entering on the rtl, exit on the left, repeat.
-------------------------------------------
Quote from Spydertrader:
How, then, do you differentiate between 14:05 and 11:10 and 12:20? Again, I have not indicated anything incorrect or correct about your response, but don't all these bars look the same? (This is fun being on this side of things for once - playing the role of devil's advocate.)
- Spydertrader
Spydertrader,
As I continue to think about this, I had a question.
You provided an earlier response indicating that the following 3 occurrences could all be signals for change at the traverse level:
⢠Jokari Window (decreasing Volume after increasing Volume)
⢠Pennant Break Out FBO
⢠Peak Volume
Each required three bars to create the signal AND must occur within a traverse that has been formed and confirmed with increasing volume (noting the 3 excluded exceptions). You didnât include a Lateral Formation FBO as also being a signal for change at the Traverse level.
A Lateral Formation can also form a Traverse itself. So A Lateral Formation FBO can provide a signal for change, within ITSELF. No other up/down traverse is required to be in place and confirmed,
1: Is this thought correct?
You also provided a response earlier that indicated that âLaterals can form retraces, traverses and channels. When laterals do not form any of these three things, they have no other meaning.â
So once it is clear that the Lateral Formation is moving price from pt2 to pt3, an FBO of that lateral can be seen as a signal for change at the traverse level.
2: Is this thought on track?
Thanks,
Phineas
Here are some useful observations:
Anyway, mak & others, at the sct level the R2R and B2B are confirmation of the prior reversal on the LTL or FTT, or of the BO. The switch often occurs at the pt 3 of the opposite trend on YM, and pt3/RTL of the first traverse of the new direction in ES.
edit: i.e., you already reversed, now (b2b, r2r) the trend is reversing as well. That's an explicit distinction that is easy to miss. Hold. Relax.
the complete post
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthrea...perpage=6&highlight=price volume&pagenumber=5
Anyway, mak & others, at the sct level the R2R and B2B are confirmation of the prior reversal on the LTL or FTT, or of the BO. The switch often occurs at the pt 3 of the opposite trend on YM, and pt3/RTL of the first traverse of the new direction in ES.
edit: i.e., you already reversed, now (b2b, r2r) the trend is reversing as well. That's an explicit distinction that is easy to miss. Hold. Relax.
the complete post
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthrea...perpage=6&highlight=price volume&pagenumber=5
From this comment, I ascertain that peak volume and a pace 'step up' look very similar. Since we know what peak volume looks like, let's see if we can identify the characteristics that would differentiate the two. Additionally, since Spyder clearly considers it important to separate the "goats" from the "sheep" so-to-speak, what is the utility of being able to distinguish a pace step-up from peak volume?
-Au