Iterative Refinement

[dkm]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Actually, it appears as if you are expecting the Jokari Window to tell you what the next bar is going to do, rather than, understanding that the Jokari Window provides information which allows you to make a decision on what action to take - hold or reverse. The Jokari Window does not say what the next bar will do.

- Spydertrader

That is a exactly what I am doing. Having based a decision on what jokari is saying at the close of the current bar, I am expecting price to move in the anticipated direction by close of the next bar. This doesn't allow for an intrabar shift on the next bar and so Jokari seems to fail. I expect that jokari would show another change signal on that bar..... "aha"

 

[romanus]

Quote from romanus:

1035 outside bar, but closing inside previous bar - moving laterally, change again. Then it forms SYM and price goes into the lateral movement until 1105 shows up on increased red volume, finally confirming pt3.

I missed 1050 eob - SYM FBO providing change as price transitions from pt2 to pt3.

 

[guavaman]

Quote from gravitonium77:

that no one can (or is willing) to come up with an answer?

Not only was this bar not a signal for change, it was a signal for continuation (down) since it provided a Pt3 of the developing down traverse.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from guavaman:

Not only was this bar not a signal for change, it was a signal for continuation (down) since it provided a Pt3 of the developing down traverse.

Bingo. Someone finally posted the actual answer. We had several discussions which talked around the answer, but I didn't see anyone actually post a response to that quiz which fit - even though several people did figure it out through an aha moment or two. They just didn't complete the process of quoting and responding to the Quiz.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from dkm:

This doesn't allow for an intrabar shift on the next bar and so Jokari seems to fail. I expect that jokari would show another change signal on that bar..... "aha"

Remember when I suggested something about focusing on when the Jokari Window appears to fail?

- Spydertrader

 

[dkm]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Bingo. Someone finally posted the actual answer.
- Spydertrader

I thought we had p3 on bar 4. This would suggest that p3 was on bar 7, which was not annotated as such.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from dkm:

I thought we had p3 on bar 4. This would suggest that p3 was on bar 7, which was not annotated as such.

Point Three still sits in the same place (Bar Four), but the important part of the response is that it wasn't a signal for change to the long side. Think of the next bar (which also sits on the RTL) as Point Five.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2010043>

 

[Mr_Black]

Change

 

[Spydertrader]

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2010186>