Iterative Refinement

Quote from Spydertrader:

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2005702>
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Spydertrader, thank you for being discreet.:) This is the major drawback of the relativity theory, or my sloppiness... I would plead for the flaw on this bar due to the volume drop-off.
 
Quote from Aurum:

The volume was just touching the "very fast" pace range - so I'd say it's not a flaw.

-Au
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I don't have a program which allows for instantaneous (or thereabouts) determination of the pace. However Jack has spoken in the past about a 'pacing seam' which is a volume above which one can expect a trend to be maintained and below which a trend will not be maintained.
In lieu of a program like the one alluded to above, I use a 6 period EMA of the volume (suggested by the dude with the ponytail and a nasty cough [I smoke too Jack - gasp]) to provide a crude estimate of the pace. In the case of bar 6, the V was about 80% of the pacing seam. So for the moment, I'll hold with the 'hold = continue' but as always, I will not hold onto my conjecture if I can be shown to be wrong, which as we all know rarely happens (ho, ho, ho).

lj
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

Quiz: Why do we not have a signal for change on Bar Six?
- Spydertrader
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No flaw or VE since p3. Flaw level vol. Anticipate flaw.
 
I am inclined to side with dkm with the disclaimer that my answer is not internalized or drilled-down yet. After doing this drill

Quote from Spydertrader:

Spydertrader (Jun 11, 2007 10:18:02 AM)
Now, how might one KNOW in advance a flaw was forming, without even seeing the bar form?
Spydertrader (Jun 11, 2007 10:18:10 AM)
or looking at Volume?
Spydertrader (Jun 11, 2007 10:18:36 AM)
review you charts and look at the traverses
Spydertrader (Jun 11, 2007 10:19:01 AM)
you'll notice FTT's form AFTER VE or flaws within these traverse
Spydertrader (Jun 11, 2007 10:19:12 AM)
RARELY do you have an FTT form without having a VE or flaw first
Spydertrader (Jun 11, 2007 10:19:18 AM)
or both
Spydertrader (Jun 11, 2007 10:19:38 AM)
so if you have a traverse, without a flaw or a VE, well then your brain needs to anticipate FLAW
Spydertrader (Jun 11, 2007 10:19:49 AM)
VE = volatility expansion
Spydertrader (Jun 11, 2007 10:20:32 AM)
I enourage everyone to review their charts, or mine if you want the flaws marked for you, to 'see' what I speak of.
Spydertrader (Jun 11, 2007 10:22:22 AM)
when you review your charts, start at the point three, and move forward. How many traverses have an FTT withouit a VE or flaw? Once you do this you'll be able to 'see' how it works (build confidence)
Spydertrader (Jun 11, 2007 10:22:31 AM)
then you start looking at charts in hindsight
Spydertrader (Jun 11, 2007 10:22:35 AM)
to build more confidence
Pr0crast (Jun 11, 2007 10:22:41 AM)
good drill idea
Spydertrader (Jun 11, 2007 10:22:52 AM)
then you can start to find them in real time, then quicker in real time
Spydertrader (Jun 11, 2007 10:23:23 AM)
this is how you teach yourself to trade
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I am yet to figure out what the market is communicating. Since this part of methodology is very important, could you clarify one of your earlier comments:

Quote from Spydertrader:

If I haven't annotated it as an FTT, then, what you see on the chart, isn't an FTT. I know (and so should you) in real time (in other words, not because of what develops later with subsequent bars) that the market hasn't signaled change just yet.

Since an FTT represents nothing more than a vocabulary word used to describe a specific point of change at a specific point in time, then without change one cannot have an FTT.
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Does it mean that at 11:30 (07-22) looking at the attached chart one can see the market clearly communicating that the type of change one expects to materialize here will be anything but an FTT (an FTT can be eliminated as one of the possibilities with 100% certainty). And all that is displayed on ES only, without 2m YM.
 

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