Iterative Refinement

[ljyoung]

Quote from romanus:

I saw it but after spending a few minutes figuring out how to fit it in, gave up cause my mind was preoccupied with more existential question - what was different today compared to when one would expect another dominant traverse up instead of BO. Starting with VE of the blue channel 1120 eob, if what took price back to RTL would have been a non-dom traverse one should have expected FBO. But since it widened to the size of a down channel, then it would make sense that 1120 eob VE of the blue up channel has ended it?

Another possibility may be the fact that the intraday volatility (H-L) has fallen steadily over the past couple of days and in particular today it was 1/3 of Wednesdays' and 1/2 of yesterday's. This may give rise to more lateral motion (Formations, Movement, and CCC) and as well produce 'stubby' channels and/or slender channels. What remains constant is the T/T/C relationship and most particularly the 2 bar relationships. I have reviewed a multitude of JH and ST charts and what are always present in the charts are the tapes - always.
Thank you Jack for your recent posts.

lj

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from osho67:

Not many responses to my question serveral pages earlier, why is that ?

Probably because most everyone else determined the answer you received made perfect sense, and as such, your question required no further response.

Quote from osho67:

Clym is using volume to determine the channels, is there some flaw in what is shown in Clym's youtube video that I am not aware of ? If so please spell it out.

If you require additional information in order to make a more informed decision, I recommend obtaining said information yourself, rather than, expecting others to provide the information for you.

Quote from osho67:

Why would anyone bother to manually annotate if there is a possibility that it can be done by automation perfectly ? Isn't that part of the purpose of this thread, iterative refinement ?

As I already pointed out, several times within this thread, one learns far more from the annotation process than simply how to draw lines on a chart.

Quote from osho67:

So why can't the people who understand Jack Hersheys method put effort in releasing source code in Excel and 'pay it forward' ? Since they have already spent so much effort in discussing the method and obviously have an interest in helping people to understand it.

I recommend you apply your own advice onto your current situation and "put forth the effort" to learn that which you currently seem unable to comprehend. If you feel the current amount of information available does not meet your needs, then by all means, jump right in, and create some code. Nobody has any plans to prevent you from doing so.

Quote from osho67:

Remember, I am not saying don't manually annotate, I am saying it would be a great addition to the method and you can still practise manual annotation, come on guys someone must be an Excel guru and willing to write up and publish the source code ?

When learning a new skill, one creates a mental "priority list" of items to complete in order to accomplish certain tasks. From my point of view, should someone find themselves in the middle of the learning process, other, more important, considerations exist, which, when determining where one needs to apply effort, take on a higher level of importance when compared to automating trend lines.

It appears, you do not agree with this outlook, and I can appreciate your differing view. As a result, I encourage you to continue your quest, and look forward to reviewing your published code upon completion.

- Spydertrader

 

[TIKITRADER]

Inside the tapes chart # 2 ES July 18 08

Remember every white bar is a 5 minute ES bar with an overlay on 1 minute ES bars

 

[TIKITRADER]

Inside the tapes chart #3 July 18 2008

 

[TIKITRADER]

Inside the tapes chart # 4 ES July 18 2008

 

[TIKITRADER]

Inside the tapes # 5 ES July 18 2008

 

[TIKITRADER]

On my way out to my son's swim meet. I will get remainder of, inside 5 minute, and inside the tapes for July 18, posted this evening or by morning Sunday.
Enjoy the charts.

 

[treeline]

Quote from TIKITRADER:

Enjoy the charts.

Thanks, TIKITRADER. Your "Inside the Tapes" charts nicely demonstrate the fractal nature of the market. When you zoom in to the 1-minute fractal, Tapes from the 5-minute fractal appear as Traverses, and Traverses appear as Channels.

Of course, the same concept should apply in the other direction as well. A dominant Channel on the 5-minute fractal, followed by a non-dominant Channel, followed by a dominant Channel, would create a "meta-Channel," for lack of a better term. I haven't spent any time looking at charts with this in mind since I'm still programming my brain to see all 3 of our main operating fractals simultaneously. And I'm not sure how much help this slower fractal would offer in regards to our MADA routine, since these meta-Channels would probably tend to span across multiple trading sessions.

 

[treeline]

Quote from treeline:

looking for clues that we wouldn't get an up Channel

Here's another day when an up Traverse early in the day wasn't followed by the formation of an up Channel. Again it seems that Volume levels gave us a nice clue as to WMCN.

I drew 3 arrows in the Volume pane of Spydertrader's chart for the morning of 7-2-08. By the time we got to the end of the second black arrow, it was clear that red Volume was dominant. We also got an IBGS on DBV on that bar, which gave a clear change signal.

Edit: The early up Traverse in this particular example was a Carryover Traverse with Point 3 on the final bar of the previous day.

 

[treeline]

As Spydertrader has repeatedly asserted, it's important to be able to recognize your areas of weakness so that you can focus your efforts on eliminating them. Right now I need to focus on:

1. Recognizing the dominant direction as early in the day as possible. I sometimes miss or underestimate important clues that would keep me on the right side of the market. Once I am confident of the dominant direction, holding through the retraces, Flaws, and laterals becomes a relatively relaxing experience.

2. Avoiding early reversals. I am frequently one Flaw too early.

I anticipate that eliminating these 2 areas of weakness will drive me closer to seeing the market in a completely binary fashion, at least as of the close of each 5 minute ES bar. I usually spend much of my weekend study time doing video debriefs, but this weekend I plan to look at multiple static charts instead so that I may better address these weaknesses.