Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
ES Daily Chart July / 8 /2008
Daile ES bar made a HH and a LL forming an outside bar today on increasing volume.
Price has not B/O of the white dominant traverse as of now , but has closed just short of the right trendline.
Range today = 39.25 points
Volatility to previous bar = 115%
Volume to previous bar = 109%
Close of bar today = 94% of range
Daile ES bar made a HH and a LL forming an outside bar today on increasing volume.
Price has not B/O of the white dominant traverse as of now , but has closed just short of the right trendline.
Range today = 39.25 points
Volatility to previous bar = 115%
Volume to previous bar = 109%
Close of bar today = 94% of range
Spydertrader,sorry for torturing you with my questions. How can one know in advance, that the first LF won't hold any additional significance even after it turned into LM? It could be a retrace (i.e. price moving from point 2 to point 3) ? My eyes or my brain
can not figure out the difference in the contexts between No.1 and No.2 till the bars with corresponding points 3 are formed.Thank you.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1986277>
Today's am ES. It seems like I'm slowly starting to see/feel certain events occurring intrabar, which is very cool.
Very tough morning. Ive been trying to go back to basics and just spot FTTs off the 30 min chart based on nothing but PRV and channels and trying to build some confidence back. Two trades specifically irk me.
I have been keeping my journal. Also, I have been monitoring PRV every 5 minutes according to Quotetrackers estimation of the 30 min PRV and while there has been a lot of early fluctuation in the bars, the thing that worries me the most is the large and rapid price fluctuation in between and at the end of certain price bars. I mean I dont know if Im supposed to have a higher threshold for pain or if Im completely too slow.
One example is today in CSIQ at the 10:00 bar. The 10:05 PRV showed decreased red volume. So I'm thinking this is a possible taped FTT and I get short early at 34.63. 10:10 PRV estimates decreased red volume as well as 10:15 so I'm feeling good. By 10:20, with price moving up very rapidly and almost a point against my original position, PRV switches to decreased black estimations. This is where it lands at 10:30. So lost nearly .70 on the trade.
Again this is first month futures type monitoring. Doing nothing else but spotting FTT's and the fact that a stock bounces me around the room this much is discouraging eventhough Ive seen and applauded the merits of the system.
Same thing happened early on in the 9:30 bar of CSIQ when increased black projections quickly went south hard at 9:35 moving nearly a point down and switching briefly to increased red projections.
I'm trying to find some confidence point in the PRV projections but theres been mostly letdowns thus far.
I have been keeping my journal. Also, I have been monitoring PRV every 5 minutes according to Quotetrackers estimation of the 30 min PRV and while there has been a lot of early fluctuation in the bars, the thing that worries me the most is the large and rapid price fluctuation in between and at the end of certain price bars. I mean I dont know if Im supposed to have a higher threshold for pain or if Im completely too slow.
One example is today in CSIQ at the 10:00 bar. The 10:05 PRV showed decreased red volume. So I'm thinking this is a possible taped FTT and I get short early at 34.63. 10:10 PRV estimates decreased red volume as well as 10:15 so I'm feeling good. By 10:20, with price moving up very rapidly and almost a point against my original position, PRV switches to decreased black estimations. This is where it lands at 10:30. So lost nearly .70 on the trade.
Again this is first month futures type monitoring. Doing nothing else but spotting FTT's and the fact that a stock bounces me around the room this much is discouraging eventhough Ive seen and applauded the merits of the system.
Same thing happened early on in the 9:30 bar of CSIQ when increased black projections quickly went south hard at 9:35 moving nearly a point down and switching briefly to increased red projections.
I'm trying to find some confidence point in the PRV projections but theres been mostly letdowns thus far.
This is an honest question.
Please explain to me the logic associated with actually trading, I presume with real money, a method one does not fully and completely understand and can execute properly and correctly without forethought or hesitation? What is the reasoning behind this thought process because it seems awfully foolish to me.
I am sincerely curious.
Spydertrader, one more question... The first annotated blue FTT on your last chart, shouldn't it be lime?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113310&perpage=6&pagenumber=817/vb/
The first annotated blue FTT on your last chart, shouldn't it be lime?http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113310&perpage=6&pagenumber=817/vb/
If you adjust your dark brown down channel by moving pt3 to 1130 eob bar (currently labeled pt1 of the red down channel), it would appear that your first red down channel and green pt3 up channel have built a lateral channel. Your second red down channel (1135-1210 eob) would appear to be a dominant traverse of larger pt3 down channel, which in turn represents dominant traverse of lateral channel which is being widened down.
The above quoted text represents the same question (worded differently this time) you've posted numerous times. If the market has started moving from Point One to Point Two, it must also then move from point Two to Point Three, and finally, it must also then move from Point Three and toward the next signal for change.
A finite number of possibilities exist which create such an environment. Learn them, and you will then know the answers to these questions.
Ironically, you already know the answers. You've simply yet to realize it.
Not even close.
Month One of Futures includes learning to draw channels while thoroughly annotating a chart.
Compare your Equities Charts to those I recently posted.
One of us knows how to thoroughly annotate a chart, and correctly obtain trend lines.
Perhaps, you need to spend some time learning to thoroughly annotate a chart. Your questions clearly indicate (to me) you've missed a critical component the first time through.
Quote from gucci:
Spydertrader, one more question...
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=113310&perpage=6&pagenumber=817/vb/
Yes. The First 'Blue' FTT should have been colored Lime green. Thanks for allowing me the opportunity to clarify.
Compare your chart to mine. What have I included they you have not? Do you feel the missing pieces of your annotations might hold some significance for understanding? What I you included which I left out? Did I simply forget to include something? Or, might the ommitted annotation hold less importance than attributed in your mind?
- Spydertrader