Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
The FBO was on Red Trend Line....I am using only 2 min YM and 5 min ES for now + Volume.... I exit after last LL was taken because this lows or Highs are usually stacked with Stop orders and Mr_Market wants to buy low and sell High.....Quote from romanus:
Curious if finer tools (str/squ, OTR, DOM) were used for an exit, because both YM and ES show increased PRV
Spydertrader,
I had trouble on the areas of the 6-25-08 ES chart Gucci brought up and hope you could clear a few things up and let me know if this is on the right track. Hereâs my : Ask yourself a few questions, then 'see'if you can locate the answers.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Does the increasing black Bar form in a Normal Fashion? [11:55]
Does how the 12:00 [close of] ES Bar form differ from how one 'sees' things at end of bar?
Gucci:
On my chart the price doesn`t form an outside bar on this bar.This might constitute a problem. But the price does try to brake out of the lateral formation to the upside contained by the 11:45 bar. Since price on the encreasing black bar closes inside the LF we have an FBO.
The 11:55 bar is an OB on increasing volume which FBOâs the lateral. Based on the FBO and the 12:00 bar immediately heading down a point 3 is drawn in. 12:00 also forms a down tape. It retraced and closed mid bar, but I donât see how that changes the point 3 â weâre just going sideways and possibly to a fanned point three down. The 12:00 bar might be an FTT of the pink down channel and red tape, though the volume is low, possibly a flaw.
Does the pink Down Channel later confirm with increasing red Volume?
We get increasing red on the 19:25 bar.
Not until the 12:15 bar which is on the RTL, a FBP within a lateral. Itâs a slight increase in volume while still in dry up. So that could confirm the point 3. If you look on the YM itâs a different story as you got the confirmation much earlier.
Does a signal for change exist?
The bar with increasing red is an ft3 in a pink channel on the 19:25 bar. I was confused by it being an inside bar.
Assuming weâre talking about the 11:55 - 12:00 bars: On the 12:00 bar we have change confirmed later by the YM. We had expected the point 3.
The comment by Romanus "Whenever we 'see' an Outside Bar, we want to make sure we don't miss a channel.", doesnât apply in this situation to the 11:55 bar. If that bar is flipped so it breaks out up first, then heads down to create the OB, it would apply and have been confirmed as a point 3 down.
The next changes are 12:10 tape break and the 12:20 channel break â though weâre still going lateral.
Regarding the FT3, that only possible one I see is the 12:00 bar FTTâing the pink channel and point 3 of the red tape down. But weâre missing the volume for an FT3 {Quote: FT3 = Where Point Three, Increasing Volume and an FTT all converge on the exact same Price and Volume Bar.} The 11:55 doesnât seem to fit the FT3 context as how can it FTT the pink channel if it hadnât created the channel by forming a point 3 first? So I donât see an FT3 here.
How should one have known, in advance, what to expect?
Sequences (we had our points 1 and 2 but not our point 3 yet).
Agreed
Lastly, did we not just experience a very similar event (12:55 [close of] ES Bar).?
Yes.
This was similar but there were differences. The 12:50 was a spike bar and not an OB. 12:55 sym pennant forming a down tape on very low volume. 13:00 we get our increasing red to confirm, but it is also lateral formation and doesnât go any where. It did bounce off the pink RTL with increasing volume, same as in the last example. And BO two bars later. The YM adds more information confirming earlier. Towards 13:00 YM looks more like weâre in a CCC until the BO.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1973634>
I had trouble on the areas of the 6-25-08 ES chart Gucci brought up and hope you could clear a few things up and let me know if this is on the right track. Hereâs my : Ask yourself a few questions, then 'see'if you can locate the answers.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Does the increasing black Bar form in a Normal Fashion? [11:55]
Does how the 12:00 [close of] ES Bar form differ from how one 'sees' things at end of bar?
Gucci:
On my chart the price doesn`t form an outside bar on this bar.This might constitute a problem. But the price does try to brake out of the lateral formation to the upside contained by the 11:45 bar. Since price on the encreasing black bar closes inside the LF we have an FBO.
The 11:55 bar is an OB on increasing volume which FBOâs the lateral. Based on the FBO and the 12:00 bar immediately heading down a point 3 is drawn in. 12:00 also forms a down tape. It retraced and closed mid bar, but I donât see how that changes the point 3 â weâre just going sideways and possibly to a fanned point three down. The 12:00 bar might be an FTT of the pink down channel and red tape, though the volume is low, possibly a flaw.
Does the pink Down Channel later confirm with increasing red Volume?
We get increasing red on the 19:25 bar.
Not until the 12:15 bar which is on the RTL, a FBP within a lateral. Itâs a slight increase in volume while still in dry up. So that could confirm the point 3. If you look on the YM itâs a different story as you got the confirmation much earlier.
Does a signal for change exist?
The bar with increasing red is an ft3 in a pink channel on the 19:25 bar. I was confused by it being an inside bar.
Assuming weâre talking about the 11:55 - 12:00 bars: On the 12:00 bar we have change confirmed later by the YM. We had expected the point 3.
The comment by Romanus "Whenever we 'see' an Outside Bar, we want to make sure we don't miss a channel.", doesnât apply in this situation to the 11:55 bar. If that bar is flipped so it breaks out up first, then heads down to create the OB, it would apply and have been confirmed as a point 3 down.
The next changes are 12:10 tape break and the 12:20 channel break â though weâre still going lateral.
Regarding the FT3, that only possible one I see is the 12:00 bar FTTâing the pink channel and point 3 of the red tape down. But weâre missing the volume for an FT3 {Quote: FT3 = Where Point Three, Increasing Volume and an FTT all converge on the exact same Price and Volume Bar.} The 11:55 doesnât seem to fit the FT3 context as how can it FTT the pink channel if it hadnât created the channel by forming a point 3 first? So I donât see an FT3 here.
How should one have known, in advance, what to expect?
Sequences (we had our points 1 and 2 but not our point 3 yet).
Agreed
Lastly, did we not just experience a very similar event (12:55 [close of] ES Bar).?
Yes.
This was similar but there were differences. The 12:50 was a spike bar and not an OB. 12:55 sym pennant forming a down tape on very low volume. 13:00 we get our increasing red to confirm, but it is also lateral formation and doesnât go any where. It did bounce off the pink RTL with increasing volume, same as in the last example. And BO two bars later. The YM adds more information confirming earlier. Towards 13:00 YM looks more like weâre in a CCC until the BO.
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1973634>
Answers to a few questions ...
The Bar in question begins to form in a manner which appears to show a creation of a Point Three Down Traverse. However, during the Bar's formation, a sentiment shift develops which results in the market determining that the prior (three bar's) Lateral Movement had not yet finished. As such, the market had not yet finsihed moving from Point Two to Point Three. We know this as a result of Price breaking the RTL of the Blue Up traverse on increasing Volume (as Price moves from Point One to Point Two). To answer the question, then, No. The Bar did not form in a normal fashion. However, we do receive an indication of the market's intentions on this very bar - several in fact. By example, this very bar represents a signal for change.
Intra-Bar, the market shows a lateral BO on increasing Red PRV. By end of Bar, the Market shows a Lateral Formation FBO. Irrespective of the vocabulary used to describe the different market events, the mode of the market remains the same - continuation short. So, again, to answer the question, No. We 'see' no difference between Intra-Bar and End of Bar with respect to direction. However, one additional signal exists within the bar itself. When the market provided an 'If1' signal, the trader knows to seek out 'If2' in an effort to 'know' when a sufficient data set has reached threshold for an Intra-Bar action. Whether a trader takes action at End of Bar, or a trader takes action within a Bar, differs, in this specific situation, by a single action. In addition, both traders find themselves back on the same side of the market by End of Bar.
Of Course it does, and we, as traders should have known of the impending event when the market finshed moving to Point Three on the Bar in question. All the other pieces to the puzzle had already been put in place: Increasing Volume on an RTL break, lateral Movement from Point Two to Point Three, Formation FBO to maintain the market mode as continuation short. All that remained was to note the confirmation of increasing red volume.
As discussed above the bar in question formed a Lateral Formation FBO
In addition to the answer provided above, I recommend a review of a thoroughly annotated chart. The answers anyone requires sit there each day waiting to be discovered - literally right in front of everyone's noses. You placed your focus on what type of bars existed in order to compare and contrast the two events. Perhaps, other areas exist, which, if investigated, might shed additional light on the subject.
HTH.
- Spydertrader
The Bar in question begins to form in a manner which appears to show a creation of a Point Three Down Traverse. However, during the Bar's formation, a sentiment shift develops which results in the market determining that the prior (three bar's) Lateral Movement had not yet finished. As such, the market had not yet finsihed moving from Point Two to Point Three. We know this as a result of Price breaking the RTL of the Blue Up traverse on increasing Volume (as Price moves from Point One to Point Two). To answer the question, then, No. The Bar did not form in a normal fashion. However, we do receive an indication of the market's intentions on this very bar - several in fact. By example, this very bar represents a signal for change.
Intra-Bar, the market shows a lateral BO on increasing Red PRV. By end of Bar, the Market shows a Lateral Formation FBO. Irrespective of the vocabulary used to describe the different market events, the mode of the market remains the same - continuation short. So, again, to answer the question, No. We 'see' no difference between Intra-Bar and End of Bar with respect to direction. However, one additional signal exists within the bar itself. When the market provided an 'If1' signal, the trader knows to seek out 'If2' in an effort to 'know' when a sufficient data set has reached threshold for an Intra-Bar action. Whether a trader takes action at End of Bar, or a trader takes action within a Bar, differs, in this specific situation, by a single action. In addition, both traders find themselves back on the same side of the market by End of Bar.
Of Course it does, and we, as traders should have known of the impending event when the market finshed moving to Point Three on the Bar in question. All the other pieces to the puzzle had already been put in place: Increasing Volume on an RTL break, lateral Movement from Point Two to Point Three, Formation FBO to maintain the market mode as continuation short. All that remained was to note the confirmation of increasing red volume.
As discussed above the bar in question formed a Lateral Formation FBO
In addition to the answer provided above, I recommend a review of a thoroughly annotated chart. The answers anyone requires sit there each day waiting to be discovered - literally right in front of everyone's noses. You placed your focus on what type of bars existed in order to compare and contrast the two events. Perhaps, other areas exist, which, if investigated, might shed additional light on the subject.
HTH.
- Spydertrader
Good thing you exited.
Now, what must come next, tomorrow?- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1973881>
SOLF looks like an FBO on the 30 min chart of the red RTL I have from the Daily chart. My question is what bar is the signal for change here.... is it the 10:30 bar where red volume comes in after a a clear FBO of the red RTL or is the 10:30 bar a pennant at that timer and the signal for change doesn't come until the 11:30 bar where increased red breaks the lateral. Whats the rule here cause it seems like the 10:30 bar would save a lot more losses
Quote from romanus:
which is a clarification of
the chart
I don't understand which bar you are referring to. In your example, bar 6 would be the specific example that I mentioned when I said
. In that situation it does apply. The 11:55 bar on 6-25-08 is the opposite.
Bar 8 isn't creating a point 3. Which bar were you referring to on the 4-23-08 chart?
Regards,
- EZ