Iterative Refinement

Quote from ivob:

Hi,

Although the bar closed within the previous one it is a black bar and (decreasing) black towards RTL is what must come next. I think often we see continuation down in a situation like this. I remember YM made a IBGS down at that moment and then quickly went up.

I caught the turn about 3 ticks from the low (of the day it turned out) and the exact same thing why you went short made me exit my position. Got out with just 1 point profit.. Oh well. Profit is profit.

regards,
Ivo
More...


http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...51&highlight=thinking+and+clearly#post1928551 (There's a chart right above Spyder's post.)

I understand that one difference between that situation and this one is that the bar did not close inside the prior bar's range whereas today's bar did.

But then I see that post and I start wondering what I did wrong (see the part about holding short through increasing black and not thinking clearly)

I understand that price can move from pt 2 to pt 3 down on increasing black volume, but clearly I wasn't thinking clearly. Any help is appreciated.

Please know that I am not trying to ruffle any feathers or disprove the method.
 
Quote from Padawan:

I understand that one difference between that situation and this one is that the bar did not close inside the prior bar's range whereas today's bar did.
More...
This is not the only difference. Take a look at YM 0952 eob and 0954 eob. Decreasing black volume while the price is moving higher. This type of behavior is found in two situations:
1. retrace in down trend, or
2. lateral movement in up trend.
YM leads ES. Take a look at ES 0955 eob. It is lateral movement. Therefore, YM finds itself in an uptrend beginning with the IBGS on 0950 eob. We've established that. Now what is the next thing that is supposed to happen on YM (which is in uptrend) that we have not seen yet. Pt3! What do the outside bars create quite often?
 
Good Discussion.

Some might find this brief interjection helpful.

With respect to 6-13-2008 YM [close of bar] at the 9:50, 9:52 and 9:54 time frame (all times Eastern), where does one 'see' a signal, from the YM, to go short?

I see an Outside Bar on the YM at the 9:56 [close of] bar, but the close of this specific example sits inside the previous bar. Clearly something (sentiment shift) developed which caused the close to move off its low.

At minimum, this specific example tells the trader, "You need more information."

Where would one find "More Information" when monitoring the YM?

See attached.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1957735>
 

Attachments

Quote from guavaman:

What did I do so very wrong there?
More...

The answer:

Since part of the decision at this point in time (6-13-08 close of 9:55 bar ES) was based on the YM (9:56 bar) that indicated IRV and Price moving down; when the WMCN by the close of the YM bar did not happen (i.e. Price continue down and close outside the range of the previous bar), I had permission to immediately reverse the entry on the ES and not wait for the close of the 10:00 ES bar.

So simple, no wonder Avi8 was right :D :D
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

With respect to 6-13-2008 YM [close of bar] at the 9:50, 9:52 and 9:54 time frame (all times Eastern), where does one 'see' a signal, from the YM, to go short?
More...

ym 09:54 is a lat bo, HH on decr blk vol
ES 09:55 is HH incr blk vol but closes back inside previous bar = short. At this moment, ym was incr red vol, outside bar, supporting a short, so short at 09:55 seems reasonable.

With the limitation of acting only on the close of each ES bar, the next action is long at the close of 10:00.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top