Iterative Refinement

[Mr_Black]

Forest down channel

 

[Mr_Black]

and reverse on LTL

 

[Padawan]

Quote from guavaman:

Okay, I am trying to figure out exactly what went wrong with my analysis on today's 9:55 ES bar. Perhaps others can shed some light on it . All bars times are the close of bar. My thought process was as follows:

The 9:50 bar ES showed DRV in a Pt3 down channel. The 9:50 YM bar showed an IBGS w/ the added bonus of a close near its extreme and greater Volume, therefore no flaw.

Guava enters long at close of 9:50 ES bar.

Then the 9:55 bar opens and moves higher. Great!. The YM also moves higher, but initially on DBV. At this point I thought we were in a retrace on both the ES and YM, but at the close of the 9:55 ES bar, we had a HH w/ Price inside the previous bars range. Consequently, this ain't no retrace, its Lateral Movement.

Coupled with the info on the YM, I reversed short because of the situation described on the ES as well as the new information on the YM (9:56 bar) which was showing a OB w/ IRV.

Only at the close of the YM 9:56 bar did it become clear that this OB bar w/ IRV and Price closing inside the range of the previous bar was actually not a signal for change.

But I had to make a decision at 9:55. What did I do so very wrong there?

Good question, Guava. Looking back on it, my take is that the 9:55 bar moved higher on increasing black volume (with close above the open) right after you got long. This is good for WMCN. Also the bar's range expanded with the increase in volume, and the YM by 9:54 was making an attempt at the type of retrace we anticipate will lead to trend change (bars making higher highs at a good slope). I'm not to the action step yet, but these clues could give one pause about reversing short, although the close inside the previous bar's range is important to note as you did.

Additionally, one might anticipate the YM 9:54 bar as pt 2 because of the price pace change, so we can draw in an advance channel and see how price/volume reacts to our anticipated rtl.

 

[ivob]

Quote from gucci:

Hi, ivob, nice chart. The increasing red volume on the bar in the blue up channel right before the orange ftt would have shaken me out. What was your thinking process at the time? Was it the context? Did the lateral movement (highlighted yellow )play any role here? Thanks.

First of all I was expecting a point 3 up because of the previous FTT and the BO. Second, some increasing red inside or when breaking a lateral is possible without the trend to change. You need much more to change the trend. Third, the red did not even break the lateral neither did the next bar. Of course I was watching very carefully the bottom border of the lateral. But nothing shocking happened.

regards,
Ivo

 

[dkm]

Quote from guavaman:

But I had to make a decision at 9:55. What did I do so very wrong there?

I don't see that you did anything wrong.

09:45 established dom short, IRV
09:50 LL DRV, change
09:55 HH IBV but closed inside previous bar = change. At this moment we have an OB on ym with IRV (clip attached). Anticipating a p3 short here seems entirely reasonable to me.

David

 

[gucci]

Quote from ivob:

First of all I was expecting a point 3 up because of the previous FTT and the BO. Second, some increasing red inside or when breaking a lateral is possible without the trend to change. You need much more to change the trend. Third, the red did not even break the lateral neither did the next bar. Of course I was watching very carefully the bottom border of the lateral. But nothing shocking happened.

regards,
Ivo

Thanks, much appreciated.

 

[tobbe]

Todays chart. Interesting day. I didn't really expect that last steep up channel (pink on my chart) to last for very long ... and then it kept going for 22 or 23 minutes after the pt3. Well, what do you know .

Have a nice weekend.

 

[ivob]

Hi,

Although the bar closed within the previous one it is a black bar and (decreasing) black towards RTL is what must come next. I think often we see continuation down in a situation like this. I remember YM made a IBGS down at that moment and then quickly went up.

I caught the turn about 3 ticks from the low (of the day it turned out) and the exact same thing why you went short made me exit my position. Got out with just 1 point profit.. Oh well. Profit is profit.

regards,
Ivo

Quote from guavaman:

Okay, I am trying to figure out exactly what went wrong with my analysis on today's 9:55 ES bar. Perhaps others can shed some light on it . All bars times are the close of bar. My thought process was as follows:

The 9:50 bar ES showed DRV in a Pt3 down channel. The 9:50 YM bar showed an IBGS w/ the added bonus of a close near its extreme and greater Volume, therefore no flaw.

Guava enters long at close of 9:50 ES bar.

Then the 9:55 bar opens and moves higher. Great!. The YM also moves higher, but initially on DBV. At this point I thought we were in a retrace on both the ES and YM, but at the close of the 9:55 ES bar, we had a HH w/ Price inside the previous bars range. Consequently, this ain't no retrace, its Lateral Movement.

Coupled with the info on the YM, I reversed short because of the situation described on the ES as well as the new information on the YM (9:56 bar) which was showing a OB w/ IRV.

Only at the close of the YM 9:56 bar did it become clear that this OB bar w/ IRV and Price closing inside the range of the previous bar was actually not a signal for change.

But I had to make a decision at 9:55. What did I do so very wrong there?

 

[TIKITRADER]

ES Daily Chart June 13 2008.

I am posting one last ESM8 chart today to show the bigger picture then I will post the new ESU8 contract this evening.

ESU8 starts on the March 17 low ( FTT ) and continues on.
All annotations will be in detail on new chart when posted.

Please ignore the volume on this chart, just to show the retrace today.

 

[cnms2]

VE on decreasing volume followed by non-dominant volume is one of my favorite reversals ... On a closer look YM actually supported the reversal ...

Quote from dkm:

I don't see that you did anything wrong.

09:45 established dom short, IRV
09:50 LL DRV, change
09:55 HH IBV but closed inside previous bar = change. At this moment we have an OB on ym with IRV (clip attached). Anticipating a p3 short here seems entirely reasonable to me.

David