Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
I am convinced that no one knows for sure what will happen next. You can only know what must happen next. It's just my opinion but my experience with the market is still very limited.
How can anyone know for sure that someone with a lot of money, or many people with lots of money, would not buy everything possible at a certain moment making price boost out of that lateral going to the sky. No one can. And what I just wrote does happen because it has happened. Anything can happen.
Change can happen immediately and very fast.
It's either slow and subtle (so not many people notice it) or immediate and fast so not many people can react quick enough. After all it's the minority who wins and the rest is screwed.
So you can only have a expectation (a sequence, a order in which things have to happen) about the future for different contexts. This also means you can immediately recognize and take action when something unexpected shows up (when WMCN doesn't, when the sequence is broken) which happens all the time. Knowing the sequence means that nothing can go wrong and you'll always be on the right side.
In this case price came into the lateral from the top (after a RTL BO), so when you see the lateral form you expect price to come out on the bottom. When price leaves the lateral you expect it to happen on increasing volume (the more the better) and price to stay out of it. Then on the next bar you need more increasing volume.
All this time you keep in your mind that this is what must happen. If you see that it doesn't you go on high alert because we have the anticipation of change. Then we take action when domino's start to fall the the other way (the signal).
regards,
Ivo
Friday during the period from 10:05 to 10:55, Blue circle, I found myself needing to find an entry after having to exit the short from pt 1 - pt 2 to take my son to school. I thought we were in a lateral move to pt 3. I got maytaged in this period, one wash after the other. I was a little confused and frustrated because I thought I knew what was happening and I couldn't get on the right side and be comfortable. It appeared WMCN was not.
I debriefed about 20 minutes later and with the help of a friend found I had missed annotating the violet channel. This added clarity to the situation. Another issue was not using the YM properly. At EOB on the es the ym was providing all the information I needed. A momentary lapse of reason and proof that more drill time is needed so these occaisional periods of confusion become less frequent.
Spyders breakdown of his trade was extremely beneficial. Everyday since we had the same situation occur(imagine that). These areas used to create confusion for me. Now I find myself expecting them and holding through them without fear. It feels as though I've known how to handle them for a long time even though the information just clicked. I suppose this is because the information was presented long ago and was waiting for the proper time to be realized. Spyders post made the AHA.
It's interesting how many times in the last 3 weeks discoveries of well documented information is finally finding a brain cell to attach to. Must not be many of them left. I plan to go over the futures journal again, probably use some of pr0crasts pdf's.
A lot of this is due to being able to work with someone.
I'd encourage others, if possible, to find someone of similar skill levels to work with. This has had tremendous benefit for me and I would like to think for my coworker also. It has been cool to watch his abilities grow over this period and provides inspiration.
Enough confesions.
good trading all.
I debriefed about 20 minutes later and with the help of a friend found I had missed annotating the violet channel. This added clarity to the situation. Another issue was not using the YM properly. At EOB on the es the ym was providing all the information I needed. A momentary lapse of reason and proof that more drill time is needed so these occaisional periods of confusion become less frequent.
Spyders breakdown of his trade was extremely beneficial. Everyday since we had the same situation occur(imagine that). These areas used to create confusion for me. Now I find myself expecting them and holding through them without fear. It feels as though I've known how to handle them for a long time even though the information just clicked. I suppose this is because the information was presented long ago and was waiting for the proper time to be realized. Spyders post made the AHA.
It's interesting how many times in the last 3 weeks discoveries of well documented information is finally finding a brain cell to attach to. Must not be many of them left. I plan to go over the futures journal again, probably use some of pr0crasts pdf's.
A lot of this is due to being able to work with someone.
I'd encourage others, if possible, to find someone of similar skill levels to work with. This has had tremendous benefit for me and I would like to think for my coworker also. It has been cool to watch his abilities grow over this period and provides inspiration.
Enough confesions.
good trading all.
Hi Ticktrade,
From just the section of ES that you posted, I place a steeper point 3 down.
Then recycle that point 3 with the pink channel that you have.
Winds up the same short signal you have in the end.
Just a way to see it if you get confused.
From just the section of ES that you posted, I place a steeper point 3 down.
Then recycle that point 3 with the pink channel that you have.
Winds up the same short signal you have in the end.
Just a way to see it if you get confused.
Thanks, Tiki,
my red channel started there. I kept it as my attempt to locate the forest, thus it had been fanned out several times. I appreciate the feedback.
QUOTE]Quote from TIKITRADER:
Hi Ticktrade,
From just the section of ES that you posted, I place a steeper point 3 down.
Then recycle that point 3 with the pink channel that you have.
Winds up the same short signal you have in the end.
Just a way to see it if you get confused. [/QUOTE]
my red channel started there. I kept it as my attempt to locate the forest, thus it had been fanned out several times. I appreciate the feedback.
QUOTE]Quote from TIKITRADER:
Hi Ticktrade,
From just the section of ES that you posted, I place a steeper point 3 down.
Then recycle that point 3 with the pink channel that you have.
Winds up the same short signal you have in the end.
Just a way to see it if you get confused. [/QUOTE]
When price breaks out of the channel on increasing non dominant volume it is a break out and no longer a valid channel to trade. However, if that does not occur, I do tend to readjust the channel if increasing dominant volume follows ( a new point 3). I do leave my real time annotations in the chart and that is what may create some confusion.
