Iterative Refinement
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
This is the only thing that make sense to me. If I expect the down channel to fan and the price goes higher on increasing volume then WMCN did not, also 1445 eob decreasing black volume says expect change, next bar 1450 eob give us increasing black instead. Definitely WMCN did not. Cool staff. Thanks, ehorn!
I like to make a suggestion/request for all those posting questions on charts, etc. If it's not too much trouble, could you mention the chart date in the questions or replies? It would be helpful to those re-reading or playing catch-up on the journal (and those of us a day ahead 
).
Sometimes when the discussion goes over several days, and comparisons are made to different days, it can get quite confusing matching the comments to the correct chart.
Thanks all, regards - EZ
). Sometimes when the discussion goes over several days, and comparisons are made to different days, it can get quite confusing matching the comments to the correct chart.
Thanks all, regards - EZ
ES M8 daily Chart June / 6 /2008
Daily ES bar, moved just a little today!
Outside bar today on increased volatility and volume, and decreased price.
Volume levels were that of the March lows during the high volatility.
As much of a move yesterday was, it turned out to be a retrace on lower volume, and created a fanned out point 3 down channel confirmed today.
Daily ES High = 1411
Low = 1358.50
Range today = 52.5 points
Close of daily bar = less than 1% of the range today
Daily ES bar, moved just a little today!
Outside bar today on increased volatility and volume, and decreased price.
Volume levels were that of the March lows during the high volatility.
As much of a move yesterday was, it turned out to be a retrace on lower volume, and created a fanned out point 3 down channel confirmed today.
Daily ES High = 1411
Low = 1358.50
Range today = 52.5 points
Close of daily bar = less than 1% of the range today
My view of Friday (ES) attached - (M) annotation performed after hours. Looks like I missed one heck of a day 
. I will continue to perform the drill and dwell on the mindset and thoughts you mention.
Have a great weekend everyone!
Thanks very much for sharing your insights Jack. I did receive benefit from even performing this drill the one time (suprised I had not done it sooner)
. I will continue to perform the drill and dwell on the mindset and thoughts you mention. and the yays have it... Please stop in and see us more often
Have a great weekend everyone!
I've been pondering this statement for days. Contained within the pages of this and the prior thread, it has been stated in one form or another that a)the trader does NOT predict and b)that the market is GOD and anything can happen.
With the above as the given, how can one "KNOW" anything before hand? Because the web as a medium leaves all the non-verbal part of communication out of the equation, I wish to state emphatically that I am most definitely not questioning the methodology or it's fundamentals. I AM questioning my own perspective and seeking a different way to see this situation than I currently do.
While I have read both journals thoroughly, that hardly means I can recall all of it
so even a pointer to a place where this has been discussed previously would help a lot. Thank you.The answer may have to do with sufficient data sets to anticipate what may take place.
A prediction can be just based on an instinctive feeling and nothing more.
There may be more to this, but my understanding.
A prediction can be just based on an instinctive feeling and nothing more.
There may be more to this, but my understanding.
We can know things based on logic.
If A = B and B = C, then 'A' must equal 'C' (and 'C' must also equal 'A'). We do not need to know the value of either 'B' or 'A' in advance in order to know, whatever the value, 'A' always equals 'C'.
If the market builds channels by creating an Up traverse and a Down traverse, in relative order to the dominant trend, then one type of traverse must come before the other. When the next component has yet to materialize, then, what must come next, is that missing component.
The market creates channels by creating dominant and non-dominant traverses. Since, in our binary system, a non-dominant traverse can only form in two ways, when one of the two ways exists, the other cannot.
Since, in this example, the market broke through a channel RTL (thus ending the up trend), the market must then form a down channel - which forms the new down trend. The market does this buy creating traverses - first a dominant traverse, then a non-dominant traverse. Once the market completes its non-dominant traverse, it then returns to the dominant direction.
As such, if we know an up trend has ended, and we know trends overlap, then we know a down trend has started where the up trend has ended. In addition, since we know how all channels form (by virtue of the market creating traverses), and we know the sequences of events which transpire to form a non-dominant traverse, in one of two possible ways, after the creation of a dominant traverse, we can know, well in advance, that a dominant traverse down, followed by a (non-dominant) Left to Right Traverse, will create a down channel leading to another dominant traverse down - or in this case, continuation short.
- Spydertrader