Iterative Refinement

[Avi 8]

Quote from romanus:

1435 eob = FTT...

This IS point one.

Now continue with your analysis of where you are in the sequence.

 

[Avi 8]

Quote from romanus:

...What does not compute...

First premise: The market is always right.

Second premise: Is there not an up channel after your FTT?

Conclusion: If the market is always right and there is a pt 123 up channel after the FTT, then one needs to look for the clues for an understanding of what actually happened, regardless of what one 'thinks' should happen.

Let the market 'teach'.

 

[romanus]

Quote from Avi 8:

This IS point one.

Now continue with your analysis of where you are in the sequence.

1450 eob shows IBV and we have our B\/B
1455 creates a retrace and pt3 is established

Quote from Avi 8:

First premise: The market is always right.

That's the paradigm with which I approach it

Quote from Avi 8:

Second premise: Is there not an up channel after your FTT?

Yes, there is and that's what bothers me , because RTL got BO'ed on decreasing volume, and therefore it's a signal from market that the pt3 down channel was drawn incorrectly

Quote from Avi 8:

If the market is always right and there is a pt 123 up channel after the FTT, then one needs to look for the clues for an understanding of what actually happened, regardless of what one 'thinks' should happen.

Let the market 'teach'.

When price exits the channel on decreasing volume it's a sign that the channel is incorrect. The usual remedy is another channel that correct, and the market confirms it's correctness by exiting it on increasing volume.

Quote from Avi 8:

...one needs to look for the clues for an understanding of what actually happened..

1. we have a pt3 down channel (three separate bars 1350 eob, 1355 eob, 1405 eob) confirmed by IRV on 1405 eob.
2. the price exits the said channel on decreasing volume, thereby rendering it incorrect.
3. the price than creates pt3 up formation (chubby tape that grew into pt3 up channel) with pt1 = FTT of the incorrect channel, validating FTT in the incorrect channel.
1+2+3 = I am missing a very important detail that brings what happened into proper perspective

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from jack hershey:

Repeatedly reaching closure on MADA by doing all four steps under the Continue leading to "HOLD" is what gives the foundation of trading that, in turn, gives you the skill ability to step up and deal with the occasional Action that comes when Change comes on the table to precipitate the timely action of reversing.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts Jack. Feel free to post more frequently should you have an opportunity.

- Spydertrader

 

[tobbe]

Todays chart. Feels like I've spent the whole day in a gaussian wabbit hole.

Btw, is the bearbelly chatroom still active?

Have a great weekend .

 

[bi9foot]

ES 6_06_2008

 

[romanus]

es 06-06-08

 

[The Flaw]

From the open the Ym led the way today. Retracement channel FTT's helped enter the big picture short w/ very little risk.

ps. file 6-6 not 6-7

 

[romanus]

Quote from Avi 8:

Let the market 'teach'.

Thank you, Avi 8

 

[Gregor_S]

Today's chart