Iterative Refinement

[nkhoi]

Quote from Spydertrader:

..Again, I don't like to post blotters anymore because it puts the focus on dollars, rather than learning to 'see' continuation or change. Hopefully, the above explanation provides some insight into my thinking.

HTH

- Spydertrader

don't know if it was just a coincident or not but ET crashed on my end right after the posting. Have Mercy on the poor server.

 

[gravitonium77]

Quote from nkhoi:

here is the full context, how many VEs, FTTs, Flaws per chart per day? Can you you erase then redraw them on the the same chart a few times?

I may not have learned how to trade (yet), but I sure as hell have learned how entrenched I am in seeing things only one way. Thanks for pointing this out to me.

 

[Jander]

Quote from Spydertrader:

HTH

AHH HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Thanks for getting us back on track and the explanation on everything. Light bulbs....

 

[ivob]

Quote from ehorn:


...
I would be curious to know if the STR/SQU gave an early signal in that area.
...

Well, just slightly. Nothing big.

regards,
Ivo

 

[ivob]

Quote from Spydertrader:


...
Again, I don't like to post blotters anymore because it puts the focus on dollars, rather than learning to 'see' continuation or change.
...
- Spydertrader

True. However, it does give inspiration just to see what's possible.

Congratulations.

I took the same short and the same long. Just did quite some silly things in between.

Ivo

 

[dkm]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Now, look at 13:45 [close of] ES bar. Jander thinks he would have jumped ship here. Why? We have seen many times how when a channel widens we often have to build traverses within it for Price to head back to the other side. This channel is certainly wide enough for us to anticipate that. As such, we will need another down traverse before we can build an up traverse to take us back across the channel.
- Spydertrader

I am struggling to understand this. After the first pt3 at 12:20, the channel fanned and a new pt3 formed at 13:25. The next 3 bars all create VE and I am anticipating FTT. 13:40 is the first LL with decr red vol. Checking ym here I see incr red vol so I pass on that change signal. The next bar, 13:45 also has a LL, decr red vol and an ibgs. ym at 13:42 is LL decr red (change), 13:44 HH incr black vol (confirms change) so I see ES 13:45 as a signal to get long. Now I am expecting decr blk to the rtl but it doesn't happen and 13:50 resumes the red dominant. Not an "easy hold" imho.

Quote from Spydertrader:
As a result, 13:45 becomes 'Point Two to Point Three' of our traverse - an easy hold. the 14:00 [Close of] ES Bar presents another change signal....
- Spydertrader

Several more VE's occur and along comes the ibgs on ES at 14:00, preceded by ibgs on ym at 13:58. I would struggle again to see this as yet another signal to ignore.

David

 

[LittleMac]

FED was the clear buy today. I thought my long at 15.02 was too late but when that 10:30 PRV showed. I knew I was in for a ride so I loaded up on some more. Stock had a textbook BO on the 30 min chart. Sold half my position and regretted it(typical me in intra-day 30 min chart mode where anything that goes against me shakes me out) but Ill be holding the rest. I'm loving the system in terms of entrys now I just gotta follow the rules in terms of exits.

Comments welcome.

 

[bi9foot]

Quote from LittleMac:



Comments welcome.

You have been really nailing these trades lately. Congrats.

 

[Mr_Black]

point 3...

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from dkm:

I am struggling to understand this. After the first pt3 at 12:20,

Discounting the 'chubby tape' for a moment, we have three ways to draw our 'trends': A Tape, A Traverse and A Channel. Tapes build Traverses and Traverses Build Chanels. How many 'tapes' do you need to know you have a Traverse? How many traverses do you need to know you have a channel?

As Price moves lower in this segment, we break two Right trend lines - one from a traverse and the other from a channel. As such, we now know that both trends have ended (traverse [short term] and channel [loger term]). Since we also know how may traverses we need to create channels, we can see that the market has yet to build the necessary traverses required for our chanel. When Price breaks the RTL's on increasing red Volume, we have our dominant traverse in place. We now need a non-dominant traverse to meet our requirements for a channel. Only two ways exist for such a thing to develop.

Quote from dkm:

Several more VE's occur and along comes the ibgs on ES at 14:00, preceded by ibgs on ym at 13:58.

Again, once we have our channel in place, and Price moves enough to significantly widen our channel, we know we have to build another dominant traverse before we can build another non-dominant traverse to take us back to the RTL of the channel.

How do we know this?

We had just ended a non-dominant LTR Traverse (Lateral Movement). What must follow non-dominant? Of course, dominant. If you were already searching for an FTT at this point then you 'switched fractals' and chose to monitor on the 'channel' level rather than the 'traverse level' for change.

The above is what we used to call trading at the forest level vs. the trees. Clearly, change signals developed throughout the 2.5 hour run down. However, one must then filter (using context) to determine if the signal for change applies to them or not.

HTH

- Spydertrader