Iterative Refinement

[Padawan]

Quote from Atari:

In addition to what you pointed out about the 10:45 ES bar, we are also provided with some additional information by this bar. If just using ES and a trader had decided to get long on the 10:35 ES bar and then hold through the 10:40 bar, both of those decisions were based on the potential for a FTT so WMCN? Did it? Also what does the price movement, volume and volatility on the 10:45 ES bar tell you? So what's the decision here?

The 10:42 YM bar continues up on increasing volume as we anticipate after
the 10:40 bar. However, once again, the price actively retreats from the MA letting us know that it is still acting as a RTL. The bar also finished with an IBGS. We have signals for change, either a potential FTT or P2 (depending on the proper context discussed in previous post).

The 10:44 YM bar has price moving up on dec volume forming a FBP. If the 10:40 bar should be considered a P1 and this bar is our potential P3, this slope still seems a little flat for channel BO.

Halfway through the 10:46 bar PRV is telling us to expect decreasing volume and we currently have a double top odd harmonic.

So at the end of 10:45 bar, all signs are showing the Lateral Formation is in control. I would not want to be long at this point.

Hope that was helpful.

-A

Very helpful. The market provides way more clues than I realize at times, and it's a matter of being detailed and thorough with M and A (and having some fine guidance to show what's possible ).

WMCN after the FTT would be non-dominant price movement back to the RTL on decreasing volume. The ES did show decreasing volume after the perceived FTT at 1035, and the price is moving toward the RTL laterally. However, at 1045 price is still below the close of the 1035 (FTT) bar and has not really tested the high of the 1040 bar.

Price movement, volume and volatility:

Price movement shows sym pennant with decreasing volume, which means continue. Comparing the 1040 and 1045 price and volume bars, there's a higher proportion of volume than volatility.

I don't think I'm seeing the clues.

 

[LittleMac]

Still short UDRL. Couldnt break the 19.50 mark to the upside. Looking for increased red tomorrow.

 

[Atari]

Quote from Padawan:

WMCN after the FTT would be non-dominant price movement back to the RTL on decreasing volume. The ES did show decreasing volume after the perceived FTT at 1035, and the price is moving toward the RTL laterally. However, at 1045 price is still below the close of the 1035 (FTT) bar and has not really tested the high of the 1040 bar.

Okay, let's think about it this way, by the end of the 10:45 bar, as you pointed out, price and volume are providing WMCN to meet the very general definition of a retrace. However, if a trader decides to act on change and reverse position based on a potential FTT, what is the specific anticipated outcome from the FTT that made the trader want to switch sides of the market? By the end of the 10:45 bar, do we have WMCN for that anticipated outcome?

there's a higher proportion of volume than volatility.

Correct, and what type of price movement? What does this signal to us?

I don't think I'm seeing the clues.

Is some cases, that was the case in this dicussion, but you picked up on a good deal of the clues provided - you just weren't sure how to apply those clues. Going forward, try to be on the lookout for clues you formerly missed. For the ones you were uncertain how to apply, take them one at a time go back and study where they were discussed and then look for them on charts to confirm you are using the signals correctly. Take your time and make sure you feel fully comfortable with each one and you will get there.

-A

 

[chuy]

Quote from Jesus_Freak:

I see what you mean. With the larger trends in as well, it helps see how these smaller channels fir into the big picture. Which do you find is easier to do first, the macro or micro trends? In other words, is it easier to drill down into the details, starting with the big picture?

JF

Yes, basically do charts on big picture and then go to 15-minute intraday to manage entry and departure. My problem in the past has been analysis by paralysis so I am trying go to a macro look.

Have had decent success with GTI this week which is an accelerated breakout of an uptrend. Others with recent breakouts of downtrend are BAM and DIVX which become quickly apparent when scanning big picture charts. Watching ICA today if it is FBO.

I have attached chart of DIVX. Hope this is helpful.

By the way if you want a picture of Chubby (Fat) tape look at CXO for the last few months - -one straight line, but today it might even break out of the uptrend at a steeper climb.

 

[Mr_Black]

point 3 .....

 

[Mr_Black]

FBO ....

 

[Mr_Black]

FTT...

 

[jaytrader100]

I recommend anyone trading the Hershey method in futures or stocks read this short article.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=auqYOgf72sJo&refer=home

Spydertrader.. what is your opinion and solution for not seeing real time volume or "true,correct" volume in the equities and eventually this will happen in futures? Seriously.. if people are learning your strategy based on Volume and Gaussians.. what is your solution to what is happening to the charted volume based on this short article? Futures markets will evovle just liek the equities .. there will be dark pool and staggered info in futures once a few new exchanges come on board in teh next few years..i.e four seasons exchange

Thankyou

 

[romanus]

What a beautiful morning! The 1035 [close of] ES bar is rather confusing. Significantly lower volatility (range) on increased volume and IBGS both signal change. 1034 [close of] YM bar attempted to break the lower boundary of FBP and failed signaling change as well. the price however went lower on the next ES bar (1040 [close of]). If somebody was holding through 1035 [close of] ES bar, I would greatly appreciate some clues as to why. Thank you.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from romanus:

If somebody was holding through 1035 [close of] ES bar, I would greatly appreciate some clues as to why. Thank you.

I have yet to notice a trend where you correctly and / or thoroughly annotate a chart. As such, why have you chosen to determine you have met the critieria to move forward to other parts of the MADA Process?

- Spydertrader