Iterative Refinement

[Padawan]

Quote from Atari:

Exactly, the point of needing more inc volume in same direction after bo of lateral is to confirm dominance. Those two things let us know that down has definitely reestablished dominance.



It wasn't? While the move didn't last long enough to establish an up channel on the ES, we do have an up channel on the YM. So now, what does that tell you about price movement on the 10:32 bar and how does that change your expectation?

Ok, thank you. I was seeing that movement up as a tape for some reason. I can see now it is an accelerated channel on YM and not a tape (subtle differences, lol). The 1032 YM bar can't be a point 3 up, so we see how the two accelerated channels form the traverses of the larger down channel. The down traverse is the pt 1 to point 2 move, and the up traverse is pt2 to pt3 move, and the 10:32 bar carries price into the wider channel from the point 3.

My expectation is that we look for a VE or flaw of the wider down channel before looking for the FTT.

 

[ehorn]

My view of the day (ES)

 

[The Flaw]

Chart for today w/ some real time running commentary. Late afternoon was very choppy.

 

[Jesus_Freak]

Hello all,
I have been absent for a couple of days. Had kind of a rough week trading..... getting WAY ahead of myself. Making old mistakes that I thought I was over.
Anyway, back to basics and learning trendlines. I am posting a chart for an equity which will probably be in DU tomorrow. I am just getting started on this so please excuse how bad it is. I am hoping by posting my first awful attempts I can correct my misunderstandings early. Anyway, any comments on it would be helpful, especially concerning where my misunderstandings are. Thanks!

JF

 

[romanus]

If anybody was holding through 1445 [close of] ES bar, I would greatly appreciate sharing the reasons why. The bar is IBGS on decreasing black volume.
YM 1444 [close of] bar is FBO of Lateral Formation also signaling change.
But the price continued going higher.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from romanus:

If anybody was holding through 1445 [close of] ES bar, I would greatly appreciate sharing the reasons why.

Something to do with price moving from Point One to Point Two on both the ES and the YM.

- Spydertrader

 

[romanus]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Something to do with price moving from Point One to Point Two on both the ES and the YM.

- Spydertrader

AHA! The price is moving from FTT (also pt1 towards pt2). Therefore any signal of change here would indicate the beginning of non-dominant traverse (through which beginners hold through) One bar after we had our pt3.

The 1545 [close of] is also an IBGS and the price did go higher on the next bar. That bar can be handled in similar fashion. The entire bar is pt2 to pt3 traverse.

Thank you, Spydertrader!

 

[Atari]

Quote from Padawan:

My expectation is that we look for a VE or flaw of the wider down channel before looking for the FTT.

We've had an FTT of an established steep up channel that, as you pointed out, creates a bigger picture p3 on the YM. However, the 10:30 FTT and RTL BO was followed by the 10:32 down move on what we've already established as dominant volume. Might this move also be considered P1 to P2, giving us the expectation of a P3 down to form a corresponding steep down channel on the YM to begin our bigger picture P3 move?

 

[Padawan]

Quote from Atari:

We've had an FTT of an established steep up channel that, as you pointed out, creates a bigger picture p3 on the YM. However, the 10:30 FTT and RTL BO was followed by the 10:32 down move on what we've already established as dominant volume. Might this move also be considered P1 to P2, giving us the expectation of a P3 down to form a corresponding steep down channel on the YM to begin our bigger picture P3 move?

As you can tell, I didn't think about that in real-time (nor in hindishgt ). I always got in trouble before trying to anticipate moves from pt 1 to pt 2 after an FTT because the pt 3 would often never materialize, or because the FTT was a point 3 and not a point 1. I see what you mean, though. Turns out I just don't understand the sequences from pt 1 to point 2 or resolution as well as I should. It's improving, though. And your drill and responses are helping, so thank you. The convos this week are right on the mark, as usual. Thanks, all.

 

[Atari]

Quote from Padawan:

ES 1040 decreasing volume, fbp (lookout for tendency to break down)/continue/hold long

YM 1040 price struggles to improve on IBV compared to previous bar, all within lat formation /change/reverse short (so reverse short on ES as well)

So now on the ES 10:40 bar we've had price try to continue down, but could not get the necessary volume so we end w/ a FBP. So ES alone probably does not give us a decision on this bar, you could hold with either position. If long, this failed attempt to go down on decreasing volume is potentially your FTT now (WMCN either increasing or decreasing black volume beginning a retrace). If held short, price has moved down in your direction, but could not continue overall down trend so potentially moving laterally to better p3 (as Bi9foot pointed out).

So now we have completed 10:36 bar in YM to provide further information.

Quote from bi9foot:

The 10:36 YM bar is a Pennant FBO in decreasing volume confirming lateral movement.

Another good clue to pick up on. Also, how did price react to the MA on the YM and what is that telling us?

The 10:38 YM bar moves down on inc. red providing us with a P3 down and establishing a matching slope channel to the up channel we just came out of so short is looking like the right side at this point (but it did not BO of our Lateral formation).

The 10:40 YM bar fails to continue down, and instead, goes up on inc. volume giving us a RTL BO of down channel just established by previous bar; and also forming a P3 up as Bi9foot also pointed out. So now at the end of the 10:40 bar the YM has provided a change signal that can provide a valid Decision to get long.

However, what contexts exist that give us a clue that this change might not materialize on the ES?

-A