Iterative Refinement

[Spydertrader]

Quote from romanus:

I am missing something fundamental

Lateral Movement on increasing volume or an IBGS means continuation to you? You all know what happens next (as the market has shown), and since I often have a very specific reason for choosing particular examples for homework, perhaps, you should focus and 'see' what you have missed. Obviously, 'Hold Short' is not the answer.

- Spydertrader

 

[Tums]

Quote from sscott:
IMHO the market provides the answer..........ALWAYS!!!!!
(except when I get to the point where I don't know WTF is going on)

then relax... push the chair back...
go make a cup of coffee... go for a walk...
and come back with a fresh mind.

;-)

 

[8833broc]

My annotated chart with how I saw things. I did not see all of the
CHANGE/CONTINUE SIGNALS that SpyderTrader did but I will review the charts a bit more at lunch and maybe notice a few signals that I missed.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from 8833broc:

I will review the charts a bit more at lunch and maybe notice a few signals that I missed.

Start with the ES bars mentioned and 'see' why we have continuation or change (using Price and Volume only) for each bar. Then, look to the YM and 'see' what the YM has said to do. Since the YM leads the ES at Points of Change, we follow the action indicated by our decision resulting from the analysis of the YM (available due to thorough monitoring and annotation).

Hopefully, the above paragraph indicates why I encourage people to insure they have a rock solid foundation at each point of the process before moving onto the next step.

- Spydertrader

 

[romanus]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Lateral Movement on increasing volume or an IBGS means continuation to you? You all know what happens next (as the market has shown), and since I often have a very specific reason for choosing particular examples for homework, perhaps, you should focus and 'see' what you have missed. Obviously, 'Hold Short' is not the answer.

- Spydertrader

Sorry, I totally missed the differences in applying the logic of lateral movement in describing how price moved vs. determining continuation/change bar to bar. In our case the data set is sufficient :
1100 - price moved in dominant direction on decreased volume = change
1105 - IBGS = change
1110 - price moved in dominant direction on decreased volume = change

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from romanus:


1100 - price moved in dominant direction on decreased volume = change
1105 - IBGS = change
1110 - price moved in dominant direction on decreased volume = change

Now, what does the YM say for each ES bar in the original example? What action is required?

- Spydertrader

 

[gucci]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Hopefully, everyone found yesterday's discussion helpful.


Debating the answer with gucci, or looking to the charts to see if the market agrees with the answer?


- Spydertrader

________________________________

Sorry... I didn't think that my question looked like an invitation to some kind of debate If my posting wastes someone's time just let me know Thanks anyway...

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from gucci:

If my posting wastes someone's time just let me know Thanks anyway...

1. I provide advice on where to locate the answer to a question you posted. Instead of following that advice, you repeat the question - twice.

2. I then point out how debating an answer doesn't equate to locating the answer oneself.

3. You decide I have implied your posting is a waste of time.

See any red flags here?

- Spydertrader

 

[Aurum]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Before anyone decides to post the question ....

When looking at the ES 5 minute chart today, we see the following ...

(All times Eastern and close of bar)

10:50 - Change
10:55 - Continuation
11:00 - Change
11:05 - Change
11:10 - Change

At the times listed above, what did the YM say?

Therefore, what action was required?

- Spydertrader

P.S. Also, why does the ES provide the signals listed?

ES
10:50 - Change (to long) - BO of a pennant on decreasing red volume
10:55 - Continuation (hold short) - increasing red volume
11:00 - Change (to long) - volatility expansion on decreasing red volume
11:05 - Change (to long) - IBGS on increasing red volume
11:10 - Change (to long) - decreasing red volume

YM
10:50 - Continue (hold short) - BO of lateral formation on increasing red vol
10:54 - Continue (hold short) - increasing red vol
11:00 - Continue (hold short) - BO of lateral formation on increasing red vol
11:04 - Change (to long) - IBGS on increasing red, return inside prev bar
11:10 - Change (to long) - BO of pennant on decreasing red vol

-Au

 

[Pepe]

Quote from Spydertrader:

10:50 - Change
10:55 - Continuation
11:00 - Change
11:05 - Change
11:10 - Change

At the times listed above, what did the YM say?

Therefore, what action was required?

My attempt :

ES: 10h50 = "A"= DRV and LL; "D"= "Change" ; "A"= "Long"
YM:10h50 => Incr Red ; "D" => "Continuation" ; "A"= "Short"

ES: 10h55 = "A"= LL on IRV ; "D"= "Continuation" ; "A"= "Hold Short"
YM: 10h54 => More Incr Red ; "D" => "Continuation"

ES: 11h00 = "A" = DRV & LL ; "D"= "Change" ; "A"= "Reverse to Long"
YM: 11h00 => IRV & Lat FBO ; "D" => "Change"

ES: 11h05 = "A"= LL in IRV but IBGS Up ; "D"= "Change" ; Action = "Hold Long"
YM: 11h04 => LL in IRV but IBGS up ; "D" => "Change"

ES: 11h10 = "A"= LL on DRV ; "D"= "Change" ; "A"= "Hold Long"
YM: 11h04 => Increasing Red and IBGS up ; "D" => "Change"


Struggling with why "change" signals happen on the market !

- Price struggles to move forward ?
- no more buyers/selleres for a specific price ?